June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

The new ECMWF weeklies are out. They just keep trending hotter and hotter across the country, especially for mid/late July. Not a single state below normal, but the immediate WA/OR coasts and far NE are spared the worst.

 

There's now a +20F contour showing up during week 6 on the 51 member ensemble mean in KS/MO/IL. On the dailies/individuals, there are many with widespread +30F to +40F anomalies over the Plains/Central US.

 

I've heard that the weeklies struggle more during transition periods like we're seeing now with the tropics/ENSO. Any truth to that, as far you know?

[TT-SEA]

Exactly. And yet you were insisting the July troughing period had to feature 546dm to meet Phil's requirements. What if we see a week in July with an average of 558dm? That would be pretty darn troughy, even if it never got down to 546.

 

You never answered my question. Can you find troughy periods (7-10 days) in previous Julys that had greater below normal height anomalies than what we're seeing with this troughy period? I bet you can find several. It's not like it's unheard of, which is what you're trying to make it out to be.

 

 

Maybe so... don't see it happening this year.   Unless it happens in the first week of the month.   

 

Its pretty hard to average 558DM for 10 days in July.       

[Front Ranger]

Perfection.   A little above normal but no extreme heat here.  

 

These nationwide blowtorch years are some of the best summers here.    

 

However, many summers that were brutally hot in the Plains/Midwest were also cooler than normal for the PNW. A number of signs point to the heat being centered there this summer, so something like 1988 is far from the only outcome.

 

A few examples...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Phil]

I've heard that the weeklies struggle more during transition periods like we're seeing now with the tropics/ENSO. Any truth to that, as far you know?

Yeah, there are two biases I'm aware of, there might be others I'm unaware of.

 

The most prolific bias (this one occurs regardless of ENSO, though more common in -ENSO) is for the model to overstrengthen ridging over the intermountain west. Generally it'll overballoon 500mb heights, to the point where downstream mass and momentum fluxes are compromised, so it has to pull the ridge back and will often just park it over the west. I've seen it happen for a long time, and it usually becomes noticeable between day 20 and day 25.

 

Another bias is the model is too generally too slow with intraseasonal forcing propagation in the longer ranges, this is obviously exacerbated during ENSO transitions as the low frequency/background signal will be unstable/intraseasonal forcing will dominate. This is only partially a property of the fact that it's a 51 member ensemble mean. So, this is a case where it might struggle in the longer ranges.

[Front Ranger]

Maybe so... don't see it happening this year.   Unless it happens in the first week of the month.   

 

Its pretty hard to average 558DM for 10 days in July.       

 

Again, you act like a period with lower height anomalies in July/August than what we're seeing now couldn't happen. Prove it. Show us that such height anomalies have never happened.

[Phil]

Again, you act like a period with lower height anomalies in July/August than what we're seeing now couldn't happen. Prove it. Show us that such height anomalies have never happened.

He can't, because it could happen very easily. I looked and found 17 July/Augusts meeting the criteria, all since 1979.

 

His assertion is bunk.

[TT-SEA]

However, many summers that were brutally hot in the Plains/Midwest were also cooler than normal for the PNW. A number of signs point to the heat being centered there this summer, so something like 1988 is far from the only outcome.

 

A few examples...

 

1953.png

 

1954.png

 

1983.png

 

2010.png

 

 

OK.    I would not hold my breathe for 2016 to just turn into 1954 or 1983.  

 

Those years were just cold most of the time.   We can't even get solidly below normal with periods of deep troughing.

[Front Ranger]

OK.    I would not hold my breathe for 2016 to just turn into 1954 or 1983.  

 

Those years were just cold most of the time.   We can't even get solidly below normal with periods of deep troughing.

 

Not true. The region has been solidly below normal since the current troughing regime set in.

[TT-SEA]

Again, you act like a period with lower height anomalies in July/August than what we're seeing now couldn't happen. Prove it. Show us that such height anomalies have never happened.

 

 

I never said that.     Show me where I said that?

 

1954 and 1983 and 1993 are always there for you to use.  

 

This has been nothing like those years.

[TT-SEA]

Not true. The region has been solidly below normal since the current troughing regime set in.

 

OK.     

[Phil]

OK. I would not hold my breathe for 2016 to just turn into 1954 or 1983.

 

Those years were just cold most of the time. We can't even get solidly below normal with periods of deep troughing.

Obviously the month isn't finished yet, but I'll bet an analogous J/A standard deviation in the mean geopotential height anomaly attained as recently as 2012.

 

When the month closes, I'll calculate the average geopotential height for the month, and go from there.

[Front Ranger]

OK.     

 

And the most solidly below normal part is still yet to come. 

 

The region overall will probably average around -3 to -5 for a 10 day period. I'd say that's pretty solid for summer.

[TT-SEA]

And the most solidly below normal part is still yet to come. 

 

The region overall will probably average around -3 to -5 for a 10 day period. I'd say that's pretty solid for summer.

 

Could be ebbs and flows of a basically normal summer.

[TT-SEA]

I suspect this JAS will be more consistently close to normal without the big swings we have seen recently. Particularly on the hot side.

[Front Ranger]

Just a real short excursion to normal 500mb heights right?    Then we really get into even "more anomalous" troughing with 546DM heights or lower for most of July and August?  

 

Assuming 546DM would be even more anomalous in July and August than it is now in mid-June and that is what is happening this week.  

 

 

You said troughing in July would be more anomalous than this current period of anomalous troughing. 

 

 

I never said that.     Show me where I said that?

 

1954 and 1983 and 1993 are always there for you to use.  

 

This has been nothing like those years.

 

What on earth could you have been saying, other than you didn't think troughing in July could be more anomalous than what we're currently seeing?

[TT-SEA]

What on earth could you have been saying, other than you didn't think troughing in July could be more anomalous than what we're currently seeing?

I did not say it could not happen... there is always 1954.

 

2016 is no 1954.

[Bryant]

OK.

Wave that white flag!

[TT-SEA]

Wave that white flag!

Right. Wait and see.

[TT-SEA]

Quite the c-zone up north. Randy... any hail or thunder? Chunky rain?

[MossMan]

Quite the c-zone up north. Randy... any hail or thunder? Chunky rain?

No, just boring rain and 49 degrees. Had to switch the thermostat from A/C back to heat since its early March out there and the house was freezing.

[MossMan]

Quite the c-zone up north. Randy... any hail or thunder? Chunky rain?

Though looking at the radar I am on the southern fringe of it currently. Looks like my work is getting pounded right now.

[Front Ranger]

This current pattern is producing weather eerily similar to what occurred in such Junes as 2012, 2010, and 2008.

 

Very odd, considering those years were not nearly as warm as 2016 has been.      

[TT-SEA]

This current pattern is producing weather eerily similar to what occurred in such Junes as 2012, 2010, and 2008.

 

Very odd, considering those years were not nearly as warm as 2016 has been.      

 

You can play devil's advocate forever and pick any side.   

 

I can do the same thing the other way as well.     

 

Who cares?    My original point was that its not likely to be getting more troughy as the summer goes on... and those years also illustrate that point.     If anything, this period of deep troughing in June sets the stage even more for less troughing July and August.      

 

Also based on the analogs and ECMWF weeklies and seasonal outlook.

 

Just my feeling right now.   All I did was wink at Phil that the flat ridge next week is very temporary and deep troughing is returning for July.   And it will be even more anomalous than this 10-day stretch.   If that is his forecast... then more power to him.   We are all entitled to make forecasts.   

[TT-SEA]

Obviously the month isn't finished yet, but I'll bet an analogous J/A standard deviation in the mean geopotential height anomaly attained as recently as 2012.

 

When the month closes, I'll calculate the average geopotential height for the month, and go from there.

 

 

Sounds good. 

[Front Ranger]

You can play devil's advocate forever and pick any side.   

 

I can do the same thing the other way as well.     

 

Who cares?    My original point was that its not likely to be getting more troughy as the summer goes on... and those years also illustrate that point.     If anything, this period of deep troughing in June sets the stage even more for less troughing July and August.      

 

Also based on the analogs and ECMWF weeklies and seasonal outlook.

 

Just my feeling right now.   All I did was wink at Phil that the flat ridge next week is very temporary and deep troughing is returning for July.   And it will be even more anomalous than this 10-day stretch.   If that is his forecast... then more power to him.   We are all entitled to make forecasts.   

 

And most of us did! 

 

I know what your main point was, but you still have made a couple of assertions (more than once) that just begged to be challenged. 

 

1) That because 2016 (and the past couple years) has been warm, it's unlikely to get below normal, even with troughing. This has already been proven false.

 

2) That this troughing is so anomalous, it's very unlikely to be surpassed later this summer (in terms of anomalies). That is patently false as well.

 

Don't say silly stuff, I won't get on you. 

[TT-SEA]

And most of us did! 

 

I know what your main point was, but you still have made a couple of assertions (more than once) that just begged to be challenged. 

 

1) That because 2016 (and the past couple years) has been warm, it's unlikely to get below normal, even with troughing. This has already been proven false.

 

2) That this troughing is so anomalous, it's very unlikely to be surpassed later this summer (in terms of anomalies). That is patently false as well.

 

Don't say silly stuff, I won't get on you. 

 

1) I think it will generally be a little above normal in JAS.    August is the month that has the best chance of being below normal.     We have all made comments about the perception that troughing only seems to get us down to about normal lately.     You made a similar comment last week and so did Jesse.    Even if its technically inaccurate... we have been saying it.    And yes... it is false.   I agree.

 

2) It is unlikely to be surpassed this July and August.   That is very different than saying it cannot happen.    You cannot say my forecast is patently false yet.    Nor can I say it 100% guaranteed.    Its a forecast.  

 

And thanks for this much more constructive feedback.   This is actually helpful.   

[Front Ranger]

1) I think it will generally be a little above normal in JAS. August is the month that has the best chance of being below normal. We have all made comments about the perception that troughing only seems to get us down to about normal lately. You made a similar comment last week and so did Jesse. Even if its technically inaccurate... we have been saying it. And yes... it is false. I agree.

 

2) It is unlikely to be surpassed this July and August. That is very different than saying it cannot happen. You cannot say my forecast is patently false yet. Nor can I say it 100% guaranteed. Its a forecast.

I can't speak for Jesse, but I was joking.

 

Well, you made it sound highly unlikely. I know you didn't say it was impossible - but you were clearly mocking Phil's forecast as if it was crazily extreme.

[TT-SEA]

I can't speak for Jesse, but I was joking.

 

Well, you made it sound highly unlikely. I know you didn't say it was impossible - but you were clearly mocking Phil's forecast as if it was crazily extreme.

 

 

I was winking at Phil's forecast... yes.    I was challenging it in light of 500mb heights down to 548DM last week and 546DM this week.   

 

Pretty fair I think.    Are we allowed to challenge each other's forecasts?   Mine are challenged all the time... even if they are pretty good at times!

[Phil]

I was winking at Phil's forecast... yes. I was challenging it in light of 500mb heights down to 548DM last week and 546DM this week.

 

Pretty fair I think. Are we allowed to challenge each other's forecasts? Mine are challenged all the time... even if they are pretty good at times!

You're setting arbitrary standards that go beyond anything I was suggesting and/or predicting.

 

July will probably be a cooler month than June. August will probably be a cooler month than July. September will be similar to one of the two. Overall, a slightly cooler than average J/A/S looks like a safe bet, in my opinion.

[TT-SEA]

You're setting arbitrary standards that go beyond anything I was suggesting and/or predicting.

 

Just comparing the current troughy period to what is normal right now.     And extrapolating to July.   Its not really arbitrary.  

[Front Ranger]

Could really use a CFS update right about now...

[TT-SEA]

Could really use a CFS update right about now...

 

 

For December!

[Front Ranger]

I see Arlington rocked a sub-60 high today. More to come tomorrow.

 

50's party at Tim's place! 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

I see Arlington rocked a sub-60 high today. More to come tomorrow.

 

50's party at Tim's place! 

 

fbdb88f82e819f7078f100bbfaf88413.jpg

 

 

Party like its 1958!  

[TT-SEA]

July will probably be a cooler month than June. August will probably be a cooler month than July. September will be similar to one of the two. Overall, a slightly cooler than average J/A/S looks like a safe bet, in my opinion.

 

 

And I am saying JAS will be slightly warmer than normal... at least at the major stations.    But we are saying essentially the same thing.    

[Phil]

And I am saying JAS will be slightly warmer than normal... at least at the major stations. But we are saying essentially the same thing.

Then why are you "winking" at my forecast? Statistically speaking, this isn't a very impressive trough. Within 1.5 standard deviations.

[TT-SEA]

GFS shows the big NE Pacific surface high for the rest of the month with generally nice weather for us starting this weekend.

 

This seems to be a typical pattern in the last half of June.     I remember many discussions about it in previous years in the second part of June.

[TT-SEA]

Then why are you "winking" at my forecast? Statistically speaking, this isn't a very impressive trough. Within 1.5 standard deviations.

 

 

Because 546DM feels like a pretty significant trough for this time of year... and its basically happened twice in the last week.     

 

You said we might have a short relaxation of the troughing in late June before it returns and is even more anomalous in July.    And you have been running slow all year.

 

Strongly anomalous troughing in July does not produce a normal month.    So the anomalous troughing you are predicting in July must be short-lived with a quick relaxation again?  

[TT-SEA]

Fairly anomalous right now...

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f24.gif

[Deweydog]

May PDO rocks a 2.35!!!