June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[VancouverIslandSouth]

No, just boring rain and 49 degrees. Had to switch the thermostat from A/C back to heat since its early March out there and the house was freezing.

 

I had a great view of those cloud tops just to the south of here this evening. Feel free to send some of that up this way. Aside from a couple brief showers we've once again struggled to pick up any significant rain in the Victoria region. For most of today showers spilled over the Olympics, headed over the Juan de Fuca, then evaporated right before hitting the Island. I do like the look of the heavier stuff shown on the coastal radar right now; with the different dynamics maybe the night will prove more favorable in this region.

[TT-SEA]

Heard on rumble of thunder here this evening.   Up to .40 on the day now.

[Phil]

Because 546DM feels like a pretty significant trough for this time of year... and its basically happened twice in the last week.

 

You said we might have a short relaxation of the troughing in late June before it returns and is even more anomalous in July. And you have been running slow all year.

 

Strongly anomalous troughing in July does not produce a normal month. So the anomalous troughing you are predicting in July must be short-lived with a quick relaxation again?

Obviously I don't anticipate the "more anomalous" troughing to persist through the entire month of July. That would be a ridiculous forecast to make, and I thought I made that quite clear when I posted my thoughts.

 

I actually anticipate a normalish first half July, followed by a troughier/cooler second half, part of which should feature more anomalous troughing relative to what is currently being observed.

[TT-SEA]

Obviously I don't anticipate the "more anomalous" troughing to persist through the entire month of July. That would be a ridiculous forecast to make. I actually anticipate a normalish first half July, followed by a troughier/cooler second half, part of which should feature more anomalous troughing relative to what is currently being observed.

 

What does that mean for us specifically?   What kind of average height are you thinking in the second half of July?

 

I think the timing will be opposite in July.   Some form of troughing for the first 7-10 days and then flat ridging for the rest of the month.  

[Phil]

What does that mean for us specifically? What kind of average height are you thinking in the second half of July?

I look at more than just geopotential heights.

 

I think the timing will be opposite in July. Some form of troughing for the first 7-10 days and then flat ridging for the rest of the month.

That's a daring call. Any reasoning for it?

[TT-SEA]

I look at more than just geopotential heights.

 

 

That's a daring call. Any reasoning for it?

 

Tell me what you are thinking as the average 500mb height for the second half of July for Seattle.    

 

Not really daring... its pretty much how it goes here in July in many years.   Worked out that way in 1988 as well.  

[Front Ranger]

I remember learning to ride my banana seat bike the summer of '88.

 

I also remember some hot days where you had to run across the cul de sac really fast to keep from burning your bare feet.

 

And there was a double homicide down the street. Big news in Gresham.

[Phil]

Tell me what you are thinking as the average 500mb height for the second half of July for Seattle.

I don't know yet.

 

Not really daring... its pretty much how it goes here in July in many years. Worked out that way in 1988 as well.

Based on the timing of the remaining intraseasonal forcing component(s), I'd argue this year will follow a different route. Maybe it's just my slow bias talking and everything will fully cycle 10 days faster than I'm thinking. We'll see.

[TT-SEA]

I don't know yet.

 

 

It would be helpful to know what you mean at the 500mb level by even more anomalous troughing for the second half of July. 

[Phil]

It would be helpful to know what you mean at the 500mb level by even more anomalous troughing for the second half of July.

Want to see how deep this trough ultimately gets first. Then will try an nail down these specifics for mid/late July. Hard to do it this far in advance, dude.

[Phil]

Do you honestly think the exact depth of the current trough will have any bearing on what happens a month and a half from now?

Lol, that wasn't what I saying at all. If we're going to be comparing the upcoming troughy period in July to the ongoing troughy period, I'd like to know the anomalous magnitude of the ongoing event before I give specifics as to where it'll stack up, relatively speaking.

 

I really need to hit the sack now, so this'll be all for me tonight.

[Jesse]

Lol, that wasn't what I saying at all. If we're going to be comparing the upcoming troughy period in July to the ongoing troughy period, I'd like to know the anomalous magnitude of the ongoing event before I give specifics as to where it'll stack up, relatively speaking.

 

I really need to hit the sack now, so this'll be all for me tonight.

That makes sense.

[TT-SEA]

Euro ensembles look slightly slightly less troughy than the operational in the long range, overall. 

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls12/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls12-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-np_Vxy.png

[TT-SEA]

Interesting to watch the temp loop from the ECMWF... the high temps peak on the 2 p.m. image rather than 5 p.m. for most areas the next 4 days as convection and clouds are causing cooling by then.

[TT-SEA]

Cliff posts about snow in the mountains and this "supertrough" which will last the entire week.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/06/snow-coming-to-our-mountains.html

[TT-SEA]

It is a very impressive trough right now... down to 543DM.   Basically a fairly normal mid-winter air mass in the middle of June.  850mb temp down to zero... thickness in the low 530s.  Snow level down to 3,500 feet and accumulating snow above 4,500 feet.    

 

http://s32.postimg.org/7rn0dah5w/Untitled.jpg

[VancouverIslandSouth]

With the upper level air mass this cold it would seem even the relatively warm ocean water can induce decent convective showers.

[Phil]

Looks like 1980 has taken the lead on the CPC 500mb correlation coefficients. Basically a three way tie for second between 1953, 1966, and 1988.

[Phil]

Based on the ESRL reanalysis, seeing some solid similarities between this year and 1934, 1935, and 1936. They'd probably be top analogs in the CPC superensemble if it included years before 1950.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was raining and 45 degrees when I got up this morning. A beautiful mid-April morning

[Phil]

Man, the GFS is completely on its own with its handling of the tropical forcing(s). Every other modeling suite (UKMET, ECMWF, GGEM, JMA) are in agreement w/ the idea of an IO/MT basis on the integral, while the GFS tries to keep Pacific/WHEM forcing going.

 

Rough times upcoming for the GFS it seems.

[ShawniganLake]

With the upper level air mass this cold it would seem even the relatively warm ocean water can induce decent convective showers.

Looks like Victoria picked up some showers overnight, but it has been dry up this way. Shawnigan Lake is running close to 1/2" below the record driest AMJ on record. The record is 1.85" from 2015, with a close second going to 1935 with 1.84".

 

Being close to the mountains here, we will likely see some showers, possibly heavy, this afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like 1980 has taken the lead on the CPC 500mb correlation coefficients. Basically a three way tie for second between 1953, 1966, and 1988.

 

 

I just looked at these 4 years again... and the summers between 1934-36.

 

Very common results from late June into September among all 7 years locally.

 

The common theme is almost no extremes either way (hot or cold).     Consistent highs in the 70s and 80s... very little rain and sunny.   No extreme heat and no extended periods of cool, damp weather.    Amazingly similar years.     More than I thought before reviewing all of them.   Goldilocks summers... not too hot and not too cold.  Juuuust right.  

 

Lends credence to my idea that the big swings we have seen recently are going to stabilize into persistently nice pattern for most of JAS without major ridging or deep troughing.     

[TT-SEA]

Another post from Cliff on this very deep trough...

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/06/winter-in-june.html

 

The temperatures over us are unusually cold and much more like the typical conditions of January.  I can prove this using the marvelous upper air climatology capability available from the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center.   Here is the climatology of 500 hPa (about 18,000 ft) temperatures at Quillayute on the Washington Coast.  Red shows daily record highs, blue indicates daily record lows and black is average.  The black dot show this morning's observation.

Today is a virtually tie for the record low for this date, or any date in June.  BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ANYTIME OF THE YEAR.

 

http://s31.postimg.org/a72rxg1ez/500hpoa.jpg

[Phil]

I just looked at these 4 years again... and the summers between 1934-36.

 

Very common results from late June into September among all 7 years locally.

 

The common theme is almost no extremes either way (hot or cold). Consistent highs in the 70s and 80s... very little rain and sunny. No extreme heat and no extended periods of cool, damp weather. Amazingly similar years. More than I thought before reviewing all of them. Goldilocks summers... not too hot and not too cold. Juuuust right.

 

Lends credence to my idea that the big swings we have seen recently are going to stabilize into persistently nice pattern for most of JAS without major ridging or deep troughing.

I agree July, August, and September won't stray exceptionally far from average, as far as their monthly anomalies are concerned.

 

However, I suspect there will be periods of more anomalous troughing within each month (one more period of anomalous ridging in late June and/or early July, too).

[Front Ranger]

So troughing still produces below normal temps?

[Phil]

Another post from Cliff on this very deep trough...

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/06/winter-in-june.html

 

The temperatures over us are unusually cold and much more like the typical conditions of January. I can prove this using the marvelous upper air climatology capability available from the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Here is the climatology of 500 hPa (about 18,000 ft) temperatures at Quillayute on the Washington Coast. Red shows daily record highs, blue indicates daily record lows and black is average. The black dot show this morning's observation.

 

Today is a virtually tie for the record low for this date, or any date in June. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ANYTIME OF THE YEAR.

 

http://s31.postimg.org/a72rxg1ez/500hpoa.jpg

For period as a whole, it won't even wind up in the 70th percentile, even using 500mb temperatures alone. Would be easy, physically speaking, to surpass later on.

[TT-SEA]

So troughing still produces below normal temps?

It is today. The universe is still following the rules!

[Phil]

It is today. The universe is still following the rules!

The universe sets the rules, actually.

[bainbridgekid]

Pretty rare to see it just 52 degrees at nearly 11 AM in mid-June despite bright sunshine and blue skies.

[bainbridgekid]

Looking downright Wintry in the higher mountains today.

 

Looks like several inches at Paradise:

 

 

And a snowy picnic table and roof at Hurricane Ridge:

 

[Bryant]

Apparently a trough can still produce below normal temps... Go figure

[Jesse]

12z GFS showed a huge heat event in the long range. Decent ensemble support too.

 

12z Euro seems a bit more moderate.

[stuffradio]

Apparently a trough can still produce below normal temps... Go figure

Crazy world we live in.

[stuffradio]

It's 49F at 12:30... what is this, March!?

[Timmy Supercell]

Chilly day in Klamath Falls. Feels like early April.

[Deweydog]

Negative windshield splat test during a shower on I-205.

[Timmy Supercell]

Apparently a trough can still produce below normal temps... Go figure

 

Nate makes it sound like it was yesterday. lol we're talking 9 days from then to now. Way exaggerated commentary from the average Pacific Northwesterner. It took time to cool down. 

 

And the midwest gets worse. They can literally go from 100 to 60 in 24-48 hours.

[Deweydog]

12z GFS showed a huge heat event in the long range. Decent ensemble support too.

 

12z Euro seems a bit more moderate.

Huge?

[Jesse]

Huge?

Showing an extended period of 850s at 20c or above for several days at the end of the run.

 

 

It is what it is. Not looking for a pointless semantics battle. There has been enough of that here the past few days.