June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

The 12 Euro is really nice.

[Front Ranger]

Bremerton hit 43 this morning, tying the record from 2008. OLM hit 38, one degree shy of the record from 2008.

[Jesse]

Euro and its ensembles look a little more moderate with the warmth early next week, compared to the GFS.

 

12Z Euro would probably top PDX out in the mid-upper 80s on Tuesday.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful afternoon... looks like the rain is staying south.   Its not really moving.   Its been partly to mostly sunny all afternoon and fairly calm.   

[BLI snowman]

Bremerton hit 43 this morning, tying the record from 2008. OLM hit 38, one degree shy of the record from 2008.

 

Legendary stuff.

[Jesse]

Legendary stuff.

A sign that things are shifting a bit from the warm monotony of the past few years, at very least.

 

It's been awhile since we've seen anything even approaching record lows in the region. Been nice seeing them pop up here and there the last week or so.

[Phil]

Euro and its ensembles look a little more moderate with the warmth early next week, compared to the GFS.

 

12Z Euro would probably top PDX out in the mid-upper 80s on Tuesday.

Looks like the 18z GFS flips right back into troughing. Only has four above average days through the entire run @ 850mb.

[Jesse]

Looks like the 18z GFS flips right back into troughing. Only has four above average days through the entire run @ 850mb.

Would be more line line the with Euro. Especially the Euro ensembles.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the 18z GFS flips right back into troughing. Only has four above average days through the entire run @ 850mb.

 

So everything changing again?   

 

Sometimes its just better to go by intuition and an understanding of local history and tendencies.   

[Phil]

Would be more line line the with Euro. Especially the Euro ensembles.

Yeah, once that ridge builds up offshore/near the Aleutians, it's very hard to avoid a downstream trough over the PNW. Especially now that the +QBO is going to hold on much longer than anticipated (favors stronger NPAC height rises during La Niña).

 

The recent QBO developments also have potentially significant implications for winter. We'll have to see where we go from here, but a longer lasting +QBO will help with early season NPAC blocking.

[Deweydog]

So everything changing again?

 

Sometimes its just better to go by intuition and an understanding of local history and tendencies.

Sometimes it's better to STFU.

 

Hard to see those instances ahead of time, though.

[Phil]

So everything changing again?

 

Sometimes its just better to go by intuition and an understanding of local history and tendencies.

Did I say anything like that? Nope.

[TT-SEA]

Did I say I was changing my forecast?

 

No... models keep going in circles though.

[TT-SEA]

Interesting sky this afternoon...

 

[TT-SEA]

Sometimes it's better to STFU.

 

Hard to see those instances ahead of time, though.

 

 

Very true!

[Phil]

No... models keep going in circles though.

Exactly, as would be expected in transitional periods without a well defined background state. Pattern instability will probably continue until the Niña/-AAM base locks in, over intraseasonal/propagatory forcing.

[Jesse]

No... models keep going in circles though.

The models are doing what they generally do. You are just more nervous than usual.

[TT-SEA]

The models are doing what they generally do. You are just more nervous than usual.

 

We are not even going to be home for most of the next 3 weeks unfortunately.  

[BLI snowman]

A sign that things are shifting a bit from the warm monotony of the past few years, at very least.

 

It's been awhile since we've seen anything even approaching record lows in the region. Been nice seeing them pop up here and there the last week or so.

 

Eh, this month is running well above average still and looks to wind up that way for most. It'll be newsworthy when we go 30+ days without any prolonged warmth. 

[Phil]

Eh, this month is running well above average still and looks to wind up that way for most. It'll be newsworthy when we go 30+ days without any prolonged warmth.

What's your definition of "prolonged warmth"?

[BLI snowman]

What's your definition of "prolonged warmth"?

 

Majority of days above normal in a given several week period. Been the case pretty much permanently since February 2014. 

[Phil]

Majority of days above normal in a given several week period. Been the case pretty much permanently since February 2014.

In that case, I think the streak ends in July, or if the next round of ridging underperforms, then it's probably already ended.

[Front Ranger]

Legendary stuff.

 

Some fairly legendary stuff happened in 2008...

[Deweydog]

Some fairly legendary stuff happened in 2008...

Yes we can!!!

[Jesse]

Eh, this month is running well above average still and looks to wind up that way for most. It'll be newsworthy when we go 30+ days without any prolonged warmth.

Agreed. Nice to see things shaking up a little, nonetheless.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, once that ridge builds up offshore/near the Aleutians, it's very hard to avoid a downstream trough over the PNW. Especially now that the +QBO is going to hold on much longer than anticipated (favors stronger NPAC height rises during La Niña).

 

The recent QBO developments also have potentially significant implications for winter. We'll have to see where we go from here, but a longer lasting +QBO will help with early season NPAC blocking.

 

Here's something some folks may find interesting. Winters that featured neutral/-ENSO and +QBO. Bolded years had major/repeated blocking episodes.

 

2013-14

2010-11

2008-09

2001-02

1999-00

1992-93

1990-91

1985-86

1980-81

1978-79

1975-76

1971-72

1966-67

1961-62

1959-60

1955-56

 

And those with -QBO.

 

2012-13

2011-12

2007-08

2005-06

2000-01

1996-97

1995-96

1993-94

1989-90

1988-89

1983-84

1981-82

1974-75

1970-71

1967-68

1962-63

1960-61

1958-59

1956-57

1954-55

1952-53

1950-51

1949-50 (I'm not sure how reliable the late 40/early 50s QBO data is, as it's non-stop negative pretty much until 1955, which doesn't fit the see-saw pattern every 1-2 years seen since then)

 

In the last 30 years, at least, it appears +QBO years deliver a better shot at significant blocking.

[Front Ranger]

Eh, this month is running well above average still and looks to wind up that way for most. It'll be newsworthy when we go 30+ days without any prolonged warmth. 

 

With anomalies dropping fast, and the last third of the month up in the air, I think there's quite a bit of uncertainty.

 

Most places could end up anywhere from near normal to well above. Or even record warm! 

[Phil]

Here's something some folks may find interesting. Winters that featured neutral/-ENSO and +QBO. Bolded years had major/repeated blocking episodes.

 

2013-14

2010-11

2008-09

2001-02

1999-00

1992-93

1990-91

1985-86

1980-81

1978-79

1975-76

1971-72

1966-67

1961-62

1959-60

1955-56

 

And those with -QBO.

 

2012-13

2011-12

2007-08

2005-06

2000-01

1996-97

1995-96

1993-94

1989-90

1988-89

1983-84

1981-82

1974-75

1970-71

1967-68

1962-63

1960-61

1958-59

1956-57

1954-55

1952-53

1950-51

1949-50 (I'm not sure how reliable the late 40/early 50s QBO data is, as it's non-stop negative pretty much until 1955, which doesn't fit the see-saw pattern every 1-2 years seen since then)

 

In the last 30 years, at least, it appears +QBO years deliver a better shot at significant blocking.

Yeah, the +QBO definitely favors a stronger and poleward NPAC high during La Niña winters. When accounting for solar forcing, the QBO correlation to NPAC blocking (during La Niña winters) increases even further.

 

In El Niño, things work a bit differently, where -QBO/Niño winters tend to favor more -EPO/westward-biased Aleutian lows, hence perform better in the PNW.

[GHweatherChris]

With anomalies dropping fast, and the last third of the month up in the air, I think there's quite a bit of uncertainty.

 

Most places could end up anywhere from near normal to well above. Or even record warm!

Medium above is most likely.

[BLI snowman]

With anomalies dropping fast, and the last third of the month up in the air, I think there's quite a bit of uncertainty.

 

Most places could end up anywhere from near normal to well above. Or even record warm! 

 

SEA will see a record warm month while OLM is slightly below average.  Runaway 3rd runway warmth.

[Front Ranger]

SEA will see a record warm month while OLM is slightly below average.  Runaway 3rd runway warmth.

 

Yep. That's exactly how it works.

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely dumping rain here for the last hour... radar shows the cell is basically stationary.

[Front Ranger]

Absolutely dumping rain here for the last hour... radar shows the cell is basically stationary.

 

Wettest June on record?

[jcmcgaffey]

There have been some decent thunderstorms sitting almost stationary just west of Seattle with decent lightning strikes.

[jcmcgaffey]

[TT-SEA]

Wettest June on record?

 

 

No sir.

 

But it sure has been raining hard.  Radar is really interesting.

[Jesse]

image.jpeg

Is that Tim's yard!?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Apparently the 39 at The Dalles this morning was their latest sub-40 low on record. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I'm liking the precip event that has started showing up Friday evening/night even if it does make for a cooler cloudy Saturday. With the warmer pattern coming up we can still use all the precipitation we can get. The stuff today continued to be spotty/frustrating though a few new areas scored some mega dumps. The band on the 0z look fairly broad/slow moving, which would certainly be a plus.

[jcmcgaffey]

Is that Tim's yard!?

Sounds like it was.  It was interesting watching the thunderstorms form.  I went down to the waterfront with the family for a couple hours and watched these thunderstorms just form up in place (instead of the usual passing thunderstorms) to the point of lightning and downdrafts and then dissipate into mist as the sun was setting.  It must have been a sort of slight convergence that set up in the central sound and with the cape created the stationary thunderstorms.