June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

UGS summary on today's Earthquake: "Tim sees 12z GFS run".

Not sure what this referencing. Don't care either.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Where are you going TT-SEA?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

More thunder. I think it is from the cell between Salem and Silverton. 

[TT-SEA]

Where are you going TT-SEA?

 

 

We are done driving for the day now... in Medford.   Heading out to check out the sights and do some wine tasting.

 

Then Napa for a couple days and then back home via the coast and the Redwoods.  

[Deweydog]

Getting real out here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are done driving for the day now... in Medford.   Heading out to check out the sights and do some wine tasting.

 

Then Napa for a couple days and then back home via the coast and the Redwoods.  

 

Very nice!

[bainbridgekid]

Seriously impressive storm just popped up near Poulsbo.

 

If I'm lucky it will hold together and get pretty interesting here in Mounltake Terrace.

 

 

 

[BLI snowman]

Getting real out here.

 

You get any hail with that last one?

[Deweydog]

You get any hail with that last one?

We did. The worst of it was a bit south of us though.

[Phil]

For those who follow the PDO, in just the last week, we've observed over 3C of SST warming, smack-dab in the middle of the NPAC cold pool. Looks like the developing Aleutian ridge/anticyclonic flow regime is doing a number on the +PDO.

 

Obviously, there will be intraseasonal oscillations in forcing that'll lead to higher frequency circulatory fluctuations, however, the developing background state is one of anticyclonic flow over the NPAC, and it'll force the PDO to drop from here on out.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

[seattleweatherguy]

Got some hail/ sleet calm now

[bainbridgekid]

Pretty incredible footage of urban street flooding in downtown Tacoma this afternoon.

 

The roads look like a river!

 

https://www.facebook.com/KING5News/videos/10153721022436476/

[Timmy Supercell]

I guess it's just going to be a mild mostly sunny day with no precipitation east of the cascades in southern Oregon. 

 

NWS is saying that in the middle of the next warm stretch maybe convection occurring Wed/Thu. With 80's coming up, say goodbye to the cold core storms!

[seattleweatherguy]

Quite a few rumbles of thunder and rain. Now quiet and sunny

[seattleweatherguy]

Is it over? Or more on the way

[Phil]

Pattern has certainly flipped around over the last week. Goes to show how offshore SSTAs are largely irrelevant to regional temperatures.

 

[Deweydog]

Pattern has certainly flipped around over the last week. Goes to show how offshore SSTAs are largely irrelevant to regional temperatures.

 

image.png

Bloboobyblobblob!!!

[Front Ranger]

Pattern has certainly flipped around over the last week. Goes to show how offshore SSTAs are largely irrelevant to regional temperatures.

 

image.png

PNW troughing. Somehow, it can still happen and still deliver cool anomalies.

[Timmy Supercell]

PNW troughing. Somehow, it can still happen and still deliver cool anomalies.

 

I hope it we get another 1995. Starving for storms east of the mountains.

[ShawniganLake]

Nothing going on here today. Cloudy and boring. Not even a drop of rain.

[stuffradio]

.50 inches of rain as of 5PM today.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like about an inch at our house today. Pushing the monthly total over 4 inches. A couple days ago the models showed today being dry.

[TT-SEA]

Jacksonville OR is awesome. What a scenic little town surrounded by vineyards and wineries. Weather is spectacular as well.

[Jesse]

Went whitewater rafting on the White Salmon River today. Not too many heavy showers out that way.

 

Caught a great rainbow near Beacon Rock on the way home.

 

[Jesse]

A decently cool and dry airmass moving in behind the shortwave this evening. Could see some chilly lows tomorrow morning.

[MossMan]

Much nicer day! Not a cloud in the sky! Yesterday was a washout, all I got was heavy rain and perhaps one distant rumble of thunder...even though there was a possible tornado (not sure if NWS has confirmed yet) in East Marysville.

[Bryant]

Happy Father's Day to whom it applies

[ShawniganLake]

Pattern has certainly flipped around over the last week. Goes to show how offshore SSTAs are largely irrelevant to regional temperatures.

 

image.png

I am personally on the fence with this debate, but what you are showing here doesn't really support your stance.  I don't think anyone has ever suggested warm SSTA's offshore can totally prevent cold anomalies.  Who's to say these anomalies wouldn't have been a degree or two lower given cold waters offshore.  If anything, the map shows that the cold anomalies relax the closer you get to the coast, sort of a counter productive map to your side of things. 

[snow_wizard]

Very dynamic weather pattern here over the past couple of months.  Many rounds of huge temperature swings, progressively longer and sharper runs of cool anomalies, and some good convective days thrown in for good measure.  I had a huge downpour and thunderstorms yesterday followed by a low of 42 this morning.  That is within a degree of the coldest low I have recorded this late in the season.  Three low temps below 45 in the past week is quite impressive for this of year (especially compared to recent years).  Even SEA dropped to 44 a few days ago which was within one degree of the record.  Not too shabby!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Happy father's day to all the Dad's out there!

[Phil]

I am personally on the fence with this debate, but what you are showing here doesn't really support your stance. I don't think anyone has ever suggested warm SSTA's offshore can totally prevent cold anomalies. Who's to say these anomalies wouldn't have been a degree or two lower given cold waters offshore. If anything, the map shows that the cold anomalies relax the closer you get to the coast, sort of a counter productive map to your side of things.

I can counter that the mere presence of the Pacific Ocean will dampen anomalies closer to the coast regardless.

 

Thermodynamics 101. Obviously there will be very slight effects, especially near the immediate coastline, but in the grand scheme of things the impact from offshore SSTAs is minor relative to the impact of the pattern itself.

[Jesse]

40s at PDX again. Very nice. Over a month later than their last occurrence of 40s last year (May 14th).

[Jesse]

Models seem to keep trending cooler. The next 3-4 days looked to have the potential to be very warm just a few days ago, and now they are barely touching average before we go into another trough.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 days in a row with out an above average day at PDX! 9 of those 10 have been negative departures. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Very dynamic weather pattern here over the past couple of months.  Many rounds of huge temperature swings, progressively longer and sharper runs of cool anomalies, and some good convective days thrown in for good measure.  I had a huge downpour and thunderstorms yesterday followed by a low of 42 this morning.  That is within a degree of the coldest low I have recorded this late in the season.  Three low temps below 45 in the past week is quite impressive for this of year (especially compared to recent years).  Even SEA dropped to 44 a few days ago which was within one degree of the record.  Not too shabby!

 

On 05/06/2015 I had a low of 24 and had thunderstorms that afternoon. Of course cold core in nature with a high of 57, but nice dark skies, couple anvils to the north, and ended up with brief thundersnow after sunset. (not sticking though).

 

It can be wild on the east slopes.

[Front Ranger]

Shelton hit 38 this morning, breaking the record of 40 from 1950.

 

OLM is down to a +1.3 anomaly for the month, and will be around +1 after today. Pretty impressive drop off from the +10 levels after the first week of the month.

[Timmy Supercell]

Only hit 37 this morning at KLMT. Considering NWS Medford had a frost advisory out for much of the CWA I expected cooler. The record for 06/19 was 32 in 2012.

 

*Edited, didn't look at the "6 hour minimum" on KLMT Still warmer than I thought....

[Jesse]

Surprisingly I only hit 40 this morning at KLMT. Considering NWS Medford had a frost advisory out for much of the CWA I expected at least mid 30's. The record for 06/19 was 32 in 2012.

I see Burns hit 28. Not sure if that's a record.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see Burns hit 28. Not sure if that's a record.

 

I checked this morning. Their record for the date is 23 from 1996. 

[Timmy Supercell]

I see Burns hit 28. Not sure if that's a record.

 

Yeah Burns can get colder than both me and Lakeview. Probably not a record.

 

 

I checked this morning. Their record for the date is 23 from 1996. 

 

Figured as much!