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June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

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Tyler Mode
Tyler Mode

Here are the only two decent lightning shots I was able to get in Yellowstone.  We had storms on several days, but most were during the day.  Finally this one edged into the overnight a little bit.  T

bainbridgekid
bainbridgekid

Pretty incredible picture of a friend of mine eating fire at Gas Works last night with a huge bolt of lightning behind her.   Photo and impeccable timing cred to Beth Crane.     I saw easily 20+ bolt

Jesse
Jesse

Went whitewater rafting on the White Salmon River today. Not too many heavy showers out that way.   Caught a great rainbow near Beacon Rock on the way home.  

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
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I have been pretty relaxed throughout this whole thing. You are the one who overreacted to my initial post, and who keeps swinging haymakers.

So mentioning that temperatures in the low 90's MIGHT not be the end of the world is a haymaker? You're making something out of nothing. It's been your spring 2016. Admittedly much better than the dumpster fire ice burn spring of a few years ago.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Aside from a quick deluge last Friday, this pattern has been pretty dry here.

I think he is Bothell and I deleted my comment because a shower just popped up over him.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Aside from a quick deluge last Friday, this pattern has been pretty dry here.

 

 

Not sure where you are exactly on the PDX radar... but it looks like a good cell near you right now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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So mentioning that temperatures in the low 90's MIGHT not be the end of the world is a haymaker? You're making something out of nothing. It's been your spring 2016. Admittedly much better than the dumpster fire ice burn spring of a few years ago.

Oh Matt...

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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SEA had a 0 departure today... not bad given the trough over us right now.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls12/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls12-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-kRvNiz.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Looking at the ensembles and I am guessing most days the rest of the month will be above normal.  

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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They have been all over the place. Weren't we just talking about how troughtastic the much superior Euro was?

 

 

Yeah... but the ECMWF ensembles were much less troughy.     And when the operational was showing a ridge without ensemble support it was wrong.   

 

And it appears that any troughing will likely be more offshore or to the north so it will be warmer than this set-up unless there is an all-day rain.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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Posted

Yeah... but the ECMWF ensembles were much less troughy. And when the operational was showing a ridge without ensemble support it was wrong.

 

And it appears that any troughing will likely be more offshore or to the north so it will be warmer than this set-up unless there is an all-day rain.

Is this all based on the fact that SEA had a zero departure today?

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Is this all based on the fact that SEA had a zero departure today?

 

No... based on the fact the ensemble mean shown above has 850mb temps generally above average.   And the ECMWF ensemble mean which showed 576DM-582DM heights starting this weekend through the end of the run.   

 

Just a guess.   Not exactly outlandish.   

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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No... based on the fact the ensemble mean shown above has 850mb temps generally above average. And the ECMWF ensemble mean which showed 576DM-582DM heights starting this weekend through the end of the run.

 

Just a guess. Not exactly outlandish.

Fair enough. We'll see what happens.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Fair enough. We'll see what happens.

 

You disagree?

 

We have 14 days left in June.   I think the majority will be above average.   Probably 10 or 11 days.   

 

Of course... all this matters immensely with the first month in our 4-month contest hanging in the balance!

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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-5 at OLM. 

 

SEA leading the region for monthly anomaly warmth, as usual.

 

I think it was related to more sunshine over King County today.   Even got up to 69 here today.

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

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I think it was related to more sunshine over King County today.   Even got up to 69 here today.

 

Oh, I'm sure that was part of it today. Though low temps also played a role.

 

But SEA, as usual, still leads the way for both monthly and yearly warm anomalies. I don't think that's all from more sunshine than anywhere else.  ;)

A forum for the end of the world.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Posted

Oh, I'm sure that was part of it today. Though low temps also played a role.

 

But SEA, as usual, still leads the way for both monthly and yearly warm anomalies. I don't think that's all from more sunshine than anywhere else.  ;)

 

 

Probably the opposite... more rainy, cloudy nights.    

 

The was a c-zone over the I-90 corridor most of last night.   I am sure the clouds were thicker over SEA as a result.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Fun display here... had thunder and lightning with the sun setting under the storm.

 

Looked like a fire... everything was so red.  Then the power went out and my phone's battery was too low to take pics.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Posted

Thats a Phil like explanation.

 

True.

 

I got this one before the storm moved over us.  My boys are getting pics on snapchat and instagram from their friends with double rainbows and lightning at the same time.

 

13422244_1018390398229168_68989199230406

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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I've had 11 days with rain this June so far. Last year in June I had 2 days. Crazy!

 

 

10 out of 16 here.   

 

It will be 12 out of 18 before the next break starts on Sunday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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00Z Canadian does not really have any trough next week.    A very warm run.

 

00Z GFS is about the same as the 12Z run with a deep trough digging offshore and pumping up a ridge and then crashing the ridge.   Much more dynamic,

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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VancouverIslandSouth Experienced

VancouverIslandSouth

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The last few model runs have been pretty disappointing for the Friday night-Saturday rain event, holding the heavier precipitation inland over areas that have already had plenty. The NE quadrant of the upper level low will have all the good stuff, hopefully it comes in a bit further west to do some drought busting.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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The last few model runs have been pretty disappointing for the Friday night-Saturday rain event, holding the heavier precipitation inland over areas that have already had plenty. The NE quadrant of the upper level low will have all the good stuff, hopefully it comes in a bit further west to do some drought busting.

 

 

Yeah... looks like an absolute soaker here on Saturday.    I don't mind being out of town that day.    

 

Wish I could send it westward.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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VancouverIslandSouth Experienced

VancouverIslandSouth

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Yeah... looks like an absolute soaker here on Saturday.    I don't mind being out of town that day.    

 

Wish I could send it westward.  

 

This pattern is following an unusual progression; just a few minor tweaks could make a huge difference in totals. We will probably see a dry few parts of East Vancouver Island getting dumped on with the E/NE flow; at the very least it'll be nice to have a wide band of precipitation rolling through so the current drought areas will at least pick up something.

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