June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[jcmcgaffey]

Here is a post from Cliff Mass showing the reasoning behind the exceptionally dry period lately in Seattle while the rest of the western Washington has been receiving more precip.  The rain shadow has been consistently over Seattle for almost the last two months.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/06/the-seattle-rain-shadow.html

[GobBluth]

Looks like the GFS still can't figure out the final placement and amplitude of next weeks ridge.

[Phil]

Looks like the GFS still can't figure out the final placement and amplitude of next weeks ridge.

After the bifurcation of the anticyclonic breaker train next week (which will lead to a period of warmth/ridging in the PNW), there'll probably be one ridge centered offshore/near the Aleutians, and another centered over the 4-corners/central US. As for their exact amplitudes and the nature of the corresponding wavetrain, that's obviously up in the air.

 

Either way, July is starting to look quite troughy.

[Jesse]

12z sure is ugly for early next week. Hopefully it is out of phase with its ensembles.

[Deweydog]

12z sure is ugly for early next week. Hopefully it is out of phase with its ensembles.

Low 90's disaster!!!

[Jesse]

Fortunately the GFS op seems to be off on its own for early next week:

 

[Deweydog]

Hoping to avoid another summer where 90s are the default.

29 out of 120 is default?

 

Breathe deep.

[Jesse]

29 out of 120 is default?

 

Breathe deep.

About as "default" as our area can get. It's all relative to climo. You know this.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is totally different and very troughy for the middle of next week.

 

Looks like we just run out June troughy.    

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF is totally different and very troughy for the middle of next week.

 

Looks like we just run out June troughy.

It has been embarrassing the GFS lately.

[TT-SEA]

It has been embarrassing the GFS lately.

 

 

Not too unusual.

[Jesse]

Not too unusual.

Seems like the GFS has been worse than usual in the short-mid range lately. Its acrobatics involving the ridge early next week a good example.

[Phil]

Not too unusual.

Wave breaking = modeling lolz. The CPC is super ridgy.

 

I personally wouldn't bet against a period of ridging, based on history and my limited physical knowledge of these events.

[Jesse]

Wave breaking = modeling lolz. The CPC is super ridgy.

 

I personally wouldn't bet against a period of ridging, based on history and my limited physical knowledge of these events.

Weren't you just saying July looks super troughy?

[Deweydog]

About as "default" as our area can get. It's all relative to climo. You know this.

Slightly closer to default but still in no way default is not default.

 

Despite your anxiety/PTSD you certainly should know this. And you should also know the chances of PDX seeing 29 or more this summer are slim to none.

[Jesse]

Slightly closer to default but still in no way default is not default.

 

Despite your anxiety/PTSD you certainly should know this. And you should also know the chances of PDX seeing 29 or more this summer are slim to none.

You are going on the attack for basically no reason. Maybe you should breathe.

[TT-SEA]

Weren't you just saying July looks super troughy?

 

 

Logic says after a solid troughy period during the last half of May and another troughy period for most of the middle two weeks of June.... all of which is fairly normal... that July will not be super troughy.     Maybe weakly troughy or with flat ridging.   

 

Had we been running with a ridge since April then I could see the case for a troughy July.

 

This is not based on anything in the tropics.   This is just from looking at every year since 1877 multiple times and getting a feel for the normal flow of events here.   Stupid... I know.   Its all I can do.

[Phil]

Seems like the GFS has been worse than usual in the short-mid range lately. Its acrobatics involving the ridge early next week a good example.

It definitely has a tendency to flatten out/congeal waves in the medium range, which is one of the reasons for its zonal bias in the long range.

 

Luckily, the dynamic core of the GFS is being replaced entirely in 2018. In other words, the GFS is being replaced.

 

Plan eventually is to replace the GFS with the UGCS (Unified Global Coupled System) which incorporates the physics w/ in the CFS, GFS, and GEFS cores. The GEFS/UGCS will extend into the subseasonal range (3-4 weeks) much like the EPS weeklies.

[Jesse]

It definitely has a tendency to flatten out/congeal waves in the medium range, which is one of the reasons for its zonal bias in the long range.

 

Luckily, the dynamic core of the GFS is being replaced entirely in 2018. In other words, the GFS is being replaced.

 

Plan eventually is to replace the GFS with the UGCS (Unified Global Coupled System) which incorporates the physics w/ in the CFS, GFS, and GEFS cores. The GEFS/UGCS will extend into the subseasonal range (3-4 weeks) much like the EPS weeklies.

Very interesting. It is definitely in need of an upgrade.

[Phil]

Weren't you just saying July looks super troughy?

Overall? Yeah July looks like a troughy month to me.

 

I'm speaking in regards to late June/early July. We literally just discussed this a few days ago.

[Jesse]

Overall? Yeah July looks like a troughy month to me.

 

I'm speaking in regards to late June/early July. We literally just discussed this a few days ago.

Got it. When I hear CPC I think long range. Maybe you mean at a shorter range.

[Deweydog]

You are going on the attack for basically no reason. Maybe you should breathe.

Just offering some perspective in the event we happen to see a 90 or two next week. I can't help if it's your default pattern to think everything lately is an act of war.

 

Carry on...

[Jesse]

Just offering some perspective in the event we happen to see a 90 or two next week. I can't help if it's your default pattern to think everything lately is an act of war.

 

Carry on...

No war. Just a bit of an overreaction on your part. We're fine. Chill out Matt.

[Phil]

Logic says after a solid troughy period during the last half of May and another troughy period for most of the middle two weeks of June.... all of which is fairly normal... that July will not be super troughy. Maybe weakly troughy or with flat ridging.

 

Had we been running with a ridge since April then I could see the case for a troughy July.

 

This is not based on anything in the tropics. This is just from looking at every year since 1877 multiple times and getting a feel for the normal flow of events here. Stupid... I know. Its all I can do.

Well, looking at "every year since 1877" is a waste of time, if you ask me. There are only a few particular years that have relevance as analogs.

 

These aforementioned analogs are generally homogenous in pattern tendency, and the majority feature an increasingly troughy background state as summer progresses. It's just the nature of physical reality in these situations, often times.

[TT-SEA]

Well, looking at "every year since 1877" is a waste of time, if you ask me. There are only a few particular years that have relevance as analogs, and these aforementioned analogs are generally homogenous overall.

 

I have been wasting my time for years... already knew that.   

 

I did not look at every year since 1877 just for this year... I have been doing it for a long time.    When I say looking at years... I am looking at daily highs and lows and precipitation/snowfall.  

[Phil]

I have been wasting my time for years... already knew that.

 

I did not look at every year since 1877 just for this year... I have been doing it for a long time. When I say looking at years... I am looking at daily highs and lows and precipitation/snowfall.

So you're looking at daily highs and lows at a few random stations to determine the nature of the pattern, as opposed to widely available upper air data? Just my opinion here, but so think that's a terrible strategy.

[TT-SEA]

So you're looking at daily highs and lows at a few random stations to determine the nature of the pattern, as opposed to widely available upper air data? Just my opinion here, but so think that's a terrible strategy.

 

 

I look at both.  

 

But the tangible weather on the ground is what is most important to me.   There are definitely very distinct patterns in our weather... even in the summer months.     I also have color-coded spreadsheets so I can look at 2-3 months at one time and get a general feel for the entire period.   The warm, dry periods and the cool, damp periods stand out very noticeably.   

[BLI snowman]

Logic says after a solid troughy period during the last half of May and another troughy period for most of the middle two weeks of June.... all of which is fairly normal... that July will not be super troughy.     Maybe weakly troughy or with flat ridging.   

 

Had we been running with a ridge since April then I could see the case for a troughy July.

 

This is not based on anything in the tropics.   This is just from looking at every year since 1877 multiple times and getting a feel for the normal flow of events here.   Stupid... I know.   Its all I can do.

 

This argument doesn't really hold up in light of the persistent one-dimensionality of the past few years.

 

Also, Flatiron would be the first to tell you that definitive regional departure barometer OLM is badly due for a cool July. 

 

July 2011 was nothing special there, and it was the coldest they have seen since 2001. That means going 14 consecutive years without seeing a single July with a departure under -2F. That is of course unprecedented at that location

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa6114

 

Much like January (and August/September), we are really climatologically overdue for a significantly cool July, albeit maybe not quite as much so.

[Jesse]

This argument doesn't really hold up in light of the persistent one-dimensionality of the past few years.

 

Also, Flatiron would be the first to tell you that definitive regional departure barometer OLM is badly due for a cool July.

 

July 2011 was nothing special there, and it was the coldest they have seen since 2001. That means going 14 consecutive years without seeing a single July with a departure under -2F. That is of course unprecedented at that location

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa6114

 

Much like January (and August/September), we are really climatologically overdue for a significantly cool July, albeit maybe not quite as much so.

Truth bomb!

[TT-SEA]

This argument doesn't really hold up in light of the persistent one-dimensionality of the past few years.

 

Also, Flatiron would be the first to tell you that definitive regional departure barometer OLM is badly due for a cool July. 

 

July 2011 was nothing special there, and it was the coldest they have seen since 2001. That means going 14 consecutive years without seeing a single July with a departure under -2F. That is of course unprecedented at that location

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa6114

 

Much like January (and August/September), we are really climatologically overdue for a significantly cool July, albeit maybe not quite as much so.

 

 

Maybe so. 

 

Also climate warming involved.   

 

We will see.  

[TT-SEA]

Another pleasant afternoon with puffy cumulus clouds and lots of sunshine.    Today could end up like yesterday with some evening rain.   

 

Looks like there has been just over 3 inches of rain here in the last week.    

[Front Ranger]

Logic says after a solid troughy period during the last half of May and another troughy period for most of the middle two weeks of June.... all of which is fairly normal... that July will not be super troughy.     Maybe weakly troughy or with flat ridging.   

 

Had we been running with a ridge since April then I could see the case for a troughy July.

 

This is not based on anything in the tropics.   This is just from looking at every year since 1877 multiple times and getting a feel for the normal flow of events here.   Stupid... I know.   Its all I can do.

 

This June troughy period is putting the rather weak May one to shame. Not really that comparable. Compared to climo, May was warm/ridgy overall.

[Deweydog]

No war. Just a bit of an overreaction on your part. We're fine. Chill out Matt.

Huge!!!!

 

Also, is sending a whiny PM and then deleting it the same as running up to someone's door, ringing the door bell and then running away?  I used to do that from time to time when I was a kid.  A kid who loved SNOW!!!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF ensemble mean does not really show the trough for later next week that was shown on the ECMWF and GFS runs.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls03/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls03-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-Svur4m.png

[Jesse]

Huge!!!!

 

Also, is sending a whiny PM and then deleting it the same as running up to someone's door, ringing the door bell and then running away? I used to do that from time to time when I was a kid. A kid who loved SNOW!!!

War path.

[bainbridgekid]

Took my class on a field trip to the zoo today and the weather was absolute perfection.

 

Mid-upper 60's, sunny, and calm. Just awesome.

[Deweydog]

War path.

Just seems a little weird. It's happened twice of late. Maybe it's just a war thing?

[Jesse]

Just seems a little weird. It's happened twice of late. Maybe it's just a war thing?

Sometimes you realize certain things aren't worth the time and energy, and only work to deteriorate the situation.

 

Let's call a truce shall we? This silly back and fourth is getting stale and just making both of us look bad. I can't even remember how it started. A comment about low 90s?

[Deweydog]

Sometimes you realize certain things aren't worth the time and energy, and only work to deteriorate the situation.

 

Let's call a truce shall we? This silly back and fourth is getting stale and just making both of us look bad. I can't even remember how it started. A comment about low 90s?

I guess I don't see the need for a truce.

 

Just relax.

[Jesse]

I guess I don't see the need for a truce.

 

Just relax.

I have been pretty relaxed throughout this whole thing. You are the one who overreacted to my initial post, and who keeps swinging haymakers.