June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

The model updates are back!

 

Always a good sign that things are trending towards possibly appearing to trend less troughy.

 

I report both sides all the time.   For some reason you like the posts about troughs and mock me if I mention anything else.  

 

I didn't even post a map tonight.  

 

I think we have mentioned about 5 million times what our preferences are here.   I would actually prefer an alternating trough/ridge pattern right now rather than 10 days straight of each.

[Jesse]

I report both sides all the time. For some reason you like the posts about troughs and mock me if I mention anything else.

 

I didn't even post a map tonight.

You've been almost completely mum about the models the past 2-3 days during a stretch of troughy runs.

 

Relative to the map posting frenzy last week that was occurring during the period where the current pattern was coming into focus and you were obviously pulling hard for it not even to happen at all, it has been a noticeable drop off.

 

Just an observation.

[MossMan]

Good thing I'm not night mowing...very heavy shower at the moment!

[TT-SEA]

You've been almost completely mum about the models the past 2-3 days during a stretch of troughy runs.

 

Relative to the map posting frenzy last week that was occurring during the period where the current pattern was coming into focus and you were obviously pulling hard for it not even to happen at all, it has been a noticeable drop off.

 

Just an observation.

 

 

Thanks for the observation!     So what.

 

Like I said... was hoping for some middle ground.   Still am.   It will come.

[Front Ranger]

Nothing like the smell of fresh cut grass and bias.

[Jesse]

Thanks for the observation! So what.

 

Like I said... was hoping for some middle ground. Still am. It will come.

Fair enough. As long as you own it and don't try to come off as Mr. Objectivity.

[TT-SEA]

Fair enough. As long as you own it and don't try to come off as Mr. Objectivity.

 

 

Likewise.

 

Like it or not... there is a strong signal for a JAS period that we will both love.   Not sure what the hell we are going to talk about then??

 

Maybe the snowy January that is coming up?   

[Jesse]

Nothing like the smell of fresh cut grass and bias.

Both popular varieties of scratch 'n sniff stickers!

[Front Ranger]

Likewise.

 

Like it or not... there is a strong signal for a JAS period that we will both love.   Not sure what the hell we are going to talk about then??

 

Maybe the snowy January that is coming up?   

 

 

January 1989 was not very snowy, by the way...

[TT-SEA]

 

January 1989 was not very snowy, by the way...

 

 

January 1890 goofball.    And then you have February of 1989.   Delayed but not denied!  

 

And we would both be very happy with a normal summer.    That is true.

[ShawniganLake]

The band of rain is falling apart over southern Vancouver island. Just 0.01" so far here.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

These rain showers are sure moving quickly. A heavy band formed just offshore and rapidly blew through/dissipated before it could drop any measurable precipitation. Looks like a similar story further south too. There's definitely a fair amount of instability out there but we're still just dealing with smaller scattered popup showers. It would be nice to see some organized bands develop and maintain their strength for awhile tonight.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The band of rain is falling apart over southern Vancouver island. Just 0.01" so far here.

 

Same story here in Victoria; it looked promising with heavy precipitation falling over the Juan de Fuca but it completely fell apart on arrival.

[jcmcgaffey]

Somehow SEA missed out on all the rain again.  I was in downtown yesterday evening and it was raining hard for about an hour and a half.

[FroYoBro]

The model updates are back!

 

Always a good sign that things are trending towards possibly appearing to trend less troughy.

 

You should try to focus your thoughts on something else. This obsession couldn't be healthy. 

[stuffradio]

It's weird. Grass dies when it doesn't get watered in a long time, but it grows when it gets watered.

[Jesse]

Looks like there are less warm members in the long range on the 06z ensembles.

[Jesse]

You should try to focus your thoughts on something else. This obsession couldn't be healthy.

http://youtu.be/de1vyikBnsg

[Bryant]

I got placed on mod preview over at the accuwx forums for disagreeing with jdrenken (@TriStatesWx) regarding the PDO. I stated that the PDO simply reflects the upper level patterns, not drives them. He linked a paper stating that the East Pac/West Coast ridge was "anchored" in place by the notorious "blob", in which I disagreed. Claims I attacked a peer reviewed paper

[Deweydog]

I got placed on mod preview over at the accuwx forums for disagreeing with jdrenken (@TriStatesWx) regarding the PDO. I stated that the PDO simply reflects the upper level patterns, not drives them. He linked a paper stating that the East Pac/West Coast ridge was "anchored" in place by the notorious "blob", in which I disagreed. Claims I attacked a peer reviewed paper

The PDO and the third runway should be on mod preview.

[Front Ranger]

I got placed on mod preview over at the accuwx forums for disagreeing with jdrenken (@TriStatesWx) regarding the PDO. I stated that the PDO simply reflects the upper level patterns, not drives them. He linked a paper stating that the East Pac/West Coast ridge was "anchored" in place by the notorious "blob", in which I disagreed. Claims I attacked a peer reviewed paper

 

Blob and PDO aren't the same thing, anyway. What kind of peers are reviewing these papers?

[Jesse]

Some decent showers starting to fire up this morning.

[Deweydog]

Blob and PDO aren't the same thing, anyway. What kind of peers are reviewing these papers?

Ones that we desperately want to become members here so all the distracting frivolity will stop and more substantive conversation can take place.

[Jesse]

Ones that we desperately want to become members here so all the distracting frivolity will stop and more substantive conversation can take place.

Isn't FroYoBro already a member?

[Deweydog]

Isn't FroYoBro already a member?

He's admin.

[Jesse]

He's admin.

 

That explains the uptick in ice burns lately.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like there are less warm members in the long range on the 06z ensembles.image.png

 

 

12Z ensembles are warmer.   

 

Still think that by next weekend this very troughy pattern will fade.    Probably warm but not hot.   All the models seem to be moving in that direction.

 

Hoping everyone gets in on the rain action in the next week before the dry season really gets going.

[Jesse]

12Z ensembles are warmer.   

 

Still think that by next weekend this very troughy pattern will fade.    Probably warm but not hot.   All the models seem to be moving in that direction.

 

Hoping everyone gets in on the rain action in the next week before the dry season really gets going.

 

12Z Euro keeps some sort of troughiness over us through day 10.

 

Obviously really deep troughing like today's and next week's gets harder to do as we move later into June. A gradual relaxation of troughing is to be expected.

[Phil]

12Z ensembles are warmer.

 

Still think that by next weekend this very troughy pattern will fade. Probably warm but not hot. All the models seem to be moving in that direction.

 

Hoping everyone gets in on the rain action in the next week before the dry season really gets going.

Just typical intraseasonal wavefield fluctuations.

 

Heights will rise into AK/far NPAC following the secession of EPAC/WHEM forcing next week, so the anomalously deep troughing (locally) will relax for a few weeks. It's temporary, however, and it will reinitiate.

 

There will probably be a further consolidation of EHEM/Niña forcing and -AAM/-PNA in July, so not only will toughing return, but it'll probably be more "anomalous" than the upcoming period, relatively speaking.

[TT-SEA]

12Z Euro keeps some sort of troughiness over us through day 10.

 

Obviously really deep troughing like today's and next week's gets harder to do as we move later into June. A gradual relaxation of troughing is to be expected.

 

 

 

Yes.   The troughing seems to just dissolve later next week.    

 

Looking over 500mb patterns for so many periods in June in history as I have done in the past... that seems to be the most likely evolution as well.  

[TT-SEA]

Just typical intraseasonal wavefield fluctuations.

 

Heights will rise into AK/far NPAC following the secession of EPAC/WHEM forcing next week, so the deep troughing (locally) will relax for a few weeks. It's temporary.

 

There will probably be a further consolidation of EHEM/Niña forcing and -AAM/-PNA in July, so troughing will return, probably to a more "anomalous" extent than the upcoming period, actually.

 

Not directly over the PNW.    Probably more offshore.

 

We don't ever spend July and August with 552DM heights.    And that is what is shown next week.  

 

That is not going to be the norm in July regardless of what your data indicates.    It just does not happen.  

[Jesse]

Yes.   The troughing seems to just dissolve later next week.    

 

Looking over 500mb patterns for so many periods in June in history as I have done in the past... that seems to be the most likely evolution as well.  

 

A bit dramatic. It weakens a bit but the general trough position remains the same.

[Jesse]

Just typical intraseasonal wavefield fluctuations.

 

Heights will rise into AK/far NPAC following the secession of EPAC/WHEM forcing next week, so the anomalously deep troughing (locally) will relax for a few weeks. It's temporary, however, and it will reinitiate.

 

There will probably be a further consolidation of EHEM/Niña forcing and -AAM/-PNA in July, so not only will toughing return, but it'll probably be more "anomalous" than the upcoming period, relatively speaking.

 

This sounds great. Hope you are right.

[TT-SEA]

A bit dramatic. It weakens a bit but the general trough position remains the same.

 

Right... dissolves.   Does not move.   Just gradually weakens. 

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls06/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls06-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-67bAfj.png

[Jesse]

Not directly over the PNW.    Probably more offshore.

 

We don't spend July and August with 552DM heights ever.    And that is what is shown next week.  

 

That is not going to be the norm in July regardless of what your data indicates.    It just does not happen. 

 

Based on your preferences? Or something substantial and actually worth debating?

[Phil]

Not directly over the PNW. Probably more offshore.

 

We don't spend July and August with 552DM heights ever. And that is what is shown next week.

 

That is not going to be the norm in July regardless of what your data indicates. It just does not happen.

Nope, heights will be biased higher offshore through the remainer of summer (-PNA) with NW flow @ 500mb across the NEPAC.

 

There will not be an Aleutian/NPAC low in the means during J/A/S. Quite the opposite, actually.

[Jesse]

Right... dissolves.   Does not move.   Just gradually weakens. 

 

 

Whatever helps you ridge at night.

 

I do like the way the North Pacific high is keeping that ridiculous blob of heat over Arizona/New Mexico at bay. Hopefully it gets shunted east eventually and the southern Plains fry.

[Phil]

Based on your preferences? Or something substantial and actually worth debating?

The idea of an Aleutian/NPAC trough (+PNA) is utterly ridiculous and will not come to fruition.

[TT-SEA]

Nope, heights will be biased higher offshore through the remainer of summer (-PNA). There will not be an Aleutian/NPAC low in the means during J/A/S. Quite the opposite, actually.

 

 

Have to go into meeting... no time to debate.

 

Based on that then... we must be expecting a July and August with highs in the 50s and 60s here.     Good luck with that forecast.   

 

What happened in 1988?   That was a JAS full of 70s and 80s and sunshine here with almost no rain... and a few excursions into the 90s.  

[TT-SEA]

Based on your preferences? Or something substantial and actually worth debating?

 

 

OK.    150 years of history.  

 

I am talking about evolving into you a summer pattern you will love.   

 

Who is forecasting -7 or -10 departures for JAS?