June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Looking closer at the monthlies, I see a +15 contour on the KS/MO border. Those poor people, lol.

 

Imagine SEA having a July with an average high temperature of 92 degrees. That's what the ECMWF depiction is analogous to in the plains.

 

 

That would be unpleasant.

[Timmy Supercell]

Extremely possible that SEA has already see the majority of 80+ days they'll see in 2016.

 

Does Seattle not get that many 80+ degree days? Or do we just think that Seattle will see a much cooler summer than normal?

[Jesse]

That would be unpleasant.

 

Too cold?

[TT-SEA]

Too cold?

 

 

Yes... I prefer the average high to be up around 98 or 99.

[stuffradio]

As I suspected, the Euro ensemble mean is troughier than the operational, hours 216 and 240.

But is there a ridge?

[TT-SEA]

But is there a ridge?

 

No.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls06/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls06-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-oAZ2Jf.png

[Deweydog]

But is there a ridge?

It's a zonal cut off trough ridge rex block topped with freshly squeezed omega.

[Deweydog]

Looking closer at the monthlies, I see a +15 contour on the KS/MO border. Those poor people, lol.

 

Imagine SEA having a July with an average high temperature of 92 degrees. That's what the ECMWF depiction is analogous to in the plains.

Sweet. I'll be in Salina, KS for a week in late July.

[TT-SEA]

Sweet. I'll be in Salina, KS for a week in late July.

 

Seriously?

[Deweydog]

Seriously?

Yeppers.

 

My son, my dad and I.

[Front Ranger]

The ECMWF seasonal outlook indicates the same nationwide torch as 1988.   

 

Of course the details will be different... but I think JAS this year will end up a little warmer than JAS of 1988 here.

 

Looking at it another way... there is little doubt (someone else's favorite term ) that the next 10 days will be the coolest period until maybe late September.  

 

Better book that ticket now to SEA to save on airfare!  

 

1. The ECMWF, like all seasonal outlooks, is very fallible. Especially during a transitional ENSO period.

 

2. Even if the overall pattern ends up similar to 1988, the PNW could still end up cooler than average.

[TT-SEA]

Yeppers.

 

My son, my dad and I.

 

 

Luckily that is about 100 miles west of the KS/MO border that Phil referenced.   Should be much cooler there!

[Front Ranger]

00Z GFS came around to the ECMWF for Sunday... scoring a really nice weekend day with sunshine and temps in the 70s in this troughy pattern is a great thing.  

 

Break out the pom-poms! 

 

Still might be too cool to swim in the lake, though. 

[Deweydog]

Luckily that is about 100 miles west of the KS/MO border that Phil referenced. Should be much cooler there!

Yeah, it's considered the state's mid summer Arctic oasis.

 

Not exactly a vacation, more a very valid family obligation. Would be nice to get some good storms, although it'll be tough to beat yesterday evening's single-rumble event.

[TT-SEA]

1. The ECMWF, like all seasonal outlooks, is very fallible. Especially during a transitional ENSO period.

 

2. Even if the overall pattern ends up similar to 1988, the PNW could still end up cooler than average.

 

Sure.

 

I suppose .5 degree cooler in 1988 would have been cooler than average but not really a noticeable difference from the perfection that was most of JAS that year.  

[TT-SEA]

Break out the pom-poms! 

 

Still might be too cool to swim in the lake, though. 

 

 

Not really.

 

Lake Sammamish water temp is up to 73-74 degrees now.     Might be a couple degrees cooler by Sunday but still nice.  

 

We are too busy this weekend anyways.   On Memorial Day we were on the lake with a high of 72 and had a great time.   

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, it's considered the state's mid summer Arctic oasis.

 

Not exactly a vacation, more a very valid family obligation. Would be nice to get some good storms, although it'll be tough to be yesterday evening's single-rumble event.

 

I suspect you might see some incredible action.   Those nocturnal MCS in hot weather can be incredible.  

[Front Ranger]

Does Seattle not get that many 80+ degree days? Or do we just think that Seattle will see a much cooler summer than normal?

 

It's very possible for Seattle to go long stretches with few 80+ in the summer. In 2011, June 1 - August 19 saw a grand total of five 80+ days. 2010 had a very low 80+ total, can't remember it exactly but pretty sure it wasn't more than high teens.

[Front Ranger]

Sure.

 

I suppose .5 degree cooler in 1988 would have been cooler than average but not really a noticeable difference from the perfection that was most of JAS that year.  

 

Or this summer could end up quite different than 1988. No year ever "locks" in. I don't know how many times you've made fun of Jim for this in the winter, yet you do the same in the summer. 

 

Pure silliness.

[TT-SEA]

It's very possible for Seattle to go long stretches with few 80+ in the summer. In 2011, June 1 - August 19 saw a grand total of five 80+ days. 2010 had a very low 80+ total, can't remember it exactly but pretty sure it wasn't more than high teens.

 

I think 2011 had the fewest days above 80 in any summer in Seattle history.  

[TT-SEA]

Or this summer could end up quite different than 1988. No year ever "locks" in. I don't know how many times you've made fun of Jim for this in the winter, yet you do the same in the summer. 

 

Pure silliness.

 

 

Sure could.

 

I would bet on warmer if that was the case.   But who knows?!!    

 

Dewey does but he is not talking.   

[Front Ranger]

Not really.

 

Lake Sammamish water temp is up to 73-74 degrees now.     Might be a couple degrees cooler by Sunday but still nice.  

 

We are too busy this weekend anyways.   On Memorial Day we were on the lake with a high of 72 and had a great time.   

 

"Too busy" to enjoy NICE weather? Are you out of your '88-lovin mind?!?

 

When the weather is nice, getting out, enjoying it, and posting pics of your enjoyment of said weather should be top ******* priority.

[TT-SEA]

"Too busy" to enjoy NICE weather? Are you out of your '88-lovin mind?!?

 

When the weather is nice, getting out, enjoying it, and posting pics of your enjoyment of said weather should be top ******* priority.

 

 

We will be enjoying the weather goofy... just too busy to be on the lake!  

[Front Ranger]

I think 2011 had the fewest days above 80 in any summer in Seattle history.  

 

2010? Either way, it wouldn't be unheard of for SEA to only see 5-10 80+ days over the next couple months. By then, you're staring September in the face, a month that often only has a handful of 80+ days as it is. 

 

So it's not outlandish to think it's possible SEA may have already seen the majority of 80+ days this year (I believe they're at 14).

 

UHI-enhancement aside.

[Front Ranger]

I suspect you might see some incredible action.   Those nocturnal MCS in hot weather can be incredible.  

 

Might get some haboob action, if Phil is correct.

[TT-SEA]

Or this summer could end up quite different than 1988. No year ever "locks" in. I don't know how many times you've made fun of Jim for this in the winter, yet you do the same in the summer. 

 

Pure silliness.

 

And as Jim always says... I would take my chances with a repeat of XXXX (fill in year).    It always works out in our favor the next time around!

[TT-SEA]

2010? Either way, it wouldn't be unheard of for SEA to only see 5-10 80+ days over the next couple months. By then, you're staring September in the face, a month that often only has a handful of 80+ days as it is. 

 

So it's not outlandish to think it's possible SEA may have already seen the majority of 80+ days this year (I believe they're at 14).

 

UHI-enhancement aside.

 

 

Never said it was outlandish... just said I did not think it would happen.   

 

We could have 15 more days in the 90s and 30 days in the 80s as well.    And you would be really wrong then!     Who knows??   Not you nor I.

[Deweydog]

Might get some haboob action, if Phil is correct.

Eh. I suspect the strip club scene in Salina is pretty sketchy.

[Front Ranger]

Never said it was outlandish... just said I did not think it would happen.   

 

We could have 15 more days in the 90s and 30 days in the 80s as well.    And you would be really wrong then!     Who knows??   Not you or I.

 

There we have it. Tim's calling for another record hot summer!

 

Knew you had it in you. 

[Deweydog]

Sure could.

 

I would bet on warmer if that was the case. But who knows?!!

 

Dewey does but he is not talking.

What are we talking about?

[Front Ranger]

Eh. I suspect the strip club scene in Salina is pretty sketchy.

 

Could be a good starting point for your son, though. My first strip club was in New Orleans, and it ruined me for life.

[TT-SEA]

There we have it. Tim's calling for another record hot summer!

 

Knew you had it in you. 

 

I can't even make a joke here because it will be quoted and then becomes fact in the 3 months.

 

Luckily we all made official forecasts for this summer to remove the subjectivity.   

[Deweydog]

Could be a good starting point for your son, though. My first strip club was in New Orleans, and it ruined me for life.

I suspect he's watched Showgirls on basic cable so he's already ruined.

[bainbridgekid]

Definitely a warming trend on the long range 00z Op and Ensembles.

 

Even a handful of very warm members.

 

[Jesse]

Definitely a warming trend on the long range 00z Op and Ensembles.

 

Even a handful of very warm members.

 

 

Looks like it might be time for another heatwave contest!

[BLI snowman]

I think 2011 had the fewest days above 80 in any summer in Seattle history.  

 

I'm sure you are familiar with the winter-summer (wummer) of 1954. 1954 had two days reach 80 at SEA and that was it. 80 on July 6 and 80 on August 1.

 

2011 by comparison had 22 days of 80+ at SEA.

[Bryant]

I'm sure you are familiar with the winter-summer (wummer) of 1954. 1954 had two days reach 80 at SEA and that was it. 80 on July 6 and 80 on August 1.

 

2011 by comparison had 22 days of 80+ at SEA.

 

Just sent you a PM  

[TT-SEA]

I'm sure you are familiar with the winter-summer (wummer) of 1954. 1954 had two days reach 80 at SEA and that was it. 80 on July 6 and 80 on August 1.

 

2011 by comparison had 22 days of 80+ at SEA.

 

 

Ahh yes.  

 

I think many of those 80+ days were in September in 2011.    I remember Scott Sistek doing a running count of the number of minutes were above 80 that summer and it was comically low.  

[TT-SEA]

Definitely a warming trend on the long range 00z Op and Ensembles.

 

Even a handful of very warm members.

 

 

 

Can you link me to this site?

 

I usually only see it on here when it is crashing through the floor or when trying to prove me wrong.    I need it bookmarked.  

[Jesse]

Can you link me to this site?

 

I usually only see it on here when it is crashing through the floor or when trying to prove me wrong. I need it bookmarked.

This is the one I use:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkavnmgnam.htm

 

There used to be an easier one that only showed Portland's or Seattle's, but I think that went away.

 

Scroll down and find your city on the left, then scroll to the "850 ensembles" option on the right. Kind of interesting looking at other cities all over the continent, so that is one perk.

 

Also, the site seems to be in German.