July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy Supercell]

KLMT had a low of 34 degrees this morning! This breaks the previous record of 36 degrees on 07/11/1965.

[Deweydog]

Interestingly, this year's July thread has been more active so far than last year's.

 

We are up to 13 pages as of the 11th. Last year there were only 10 at this point.

Thank you Tim and Phil!

[TT-SEA]

Thank you Tim and Phil!

 

 

Exactly.  

[TT-SEA]

00z ECMWF does what we were discussing. Large offshore anticyclone pumping cool/dry air into the PNW on NW flow, leading to cooler surface temperatures overall.

 

The 500mb heights spike above 600dm over the NPAC. Would be record breaking for this time of year.

 

Edit: Looks like 603dm. Woah.

 

 

12Z ECMWF shows a different solution with the GOA ridge much weaker and farther offshore and SW flow here instead of NW flow.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls06/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls06-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-7I63dF.png

[Phil]

12Z ECMWF shows a different solution with the GOA ridge much weaker and farther offshore and SW flow here instead of NW flow.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls06/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls06-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-7I63dF.png

Whatever keeps you from your next panic attack.

 

The trend in most of the modeling/ensembles has been for a stronger offshore ridge, deeper western trough, which would expected given the pattern drivers going forward.

[TT-SEA]

Whatever keeps you from your next panic attack.

 

The trend in most of the modeling/ensembles has been for a stronger offshore ridge, deeper western trough, which would expected given the pattern drivers going forward.

 

Totally unnecessary.     

 

I was just following up on your post from last night.    

 

Can we stop the personal attacks please?   Keep it about weather and not what you assume other people are thinking.

[Phil]

Totally unnecessary.

 

I was just following up on your post from last night.

 

Can we stop the personal attacks please? Keep it about weather and not what you assume other people are thinking.

Was just a sarcastic poke.

 

Fair enough. In all seriousness, I wasn't trying to attack you there, but will try to avoid posts like that if they bother you.

[stuffradio]

CPC 6-10 days has 50% chance of below normal temps for the PNW and 40% above normal precip. 8-14 has 40% chance below normal temps and 30-40% above normal precip

[BLI snowman]

This has honestly been the scariest July since at least 2012. Looking ahead through the next 20 days, I am feeling truly frightened. 

[James Jones]

That Midwest death ridge is really shaping up to be a monster. I'll be in Michigan visiting family during the last week of July, too... going to be nasty out there.

[Front Ranger]

Totally unnecessary.     

 

I was just following up on your post from last night.    

 

Can we stop the personal attacks please?   Keep it about weather and not what you assume other people are thinking.

 

Someone is letting all this unmitigated troughing really get under their skin!

[Front Ranger]

This has honestly been the scariest July since at least 2012. Looking ahead through the next 20 days, I am feeling truly frightened. 

 

Nothing a little Xanax and Vitamin D supplements can't fix.

[Phil]

That Midwest death ridge is really shaping up to be a monster. I'll be in Michigan visiting family during the last week of July, too... going to be nasty out there.

Yikes, where in MI? Might be okay if you're near one of the lakes, particularly an eastern shoreline.

 

Trying to convince myself that "the monster" will stay to my west, but deep down I know I'm screwed, as that never happens.

[Front Ranger]

Yikes, where in MI? Might be okay if you're near one of the lakes, particularly an eastern shoreline.

 

Trying to convince myself that "the monster" will stay to my west, but deep down I know I'm screwed, as that never happens.

 

102 here yesterday. I really hope the ridge mainly stays a bit east of here, and hopefully the monsoon will get cranking at some point.

[TT-SEA]

Someone is letting all this unmitigated troughing really get under their skin!

 

 

I have said nothing at all.

 

When we are tracking models there is no need for personal attacks.   Its so simple.   Fred is really tired of it.  

[TT-SEA]

Nothing a little Xanax and Vitamin D supplements can't fix.

 

Plenty of sun for me.

 

The last week of June was nice.    Last week we had lots of sun in Couer D'Alene.  

 

And its sunny here now.    And it looks more sunny than cloudy overall this week with the exception of tomorrow afternoon.

 

Also have two Chelan trips coming up and of course a long trip to Minnesota,  

[Phil]

102 here yesterday. I really hope the ridge mainly stays a bit east of here, and hopefully the monsoon will get cranking at some point.

Selfish bastard. At least your heat is dry.

 

Plus you actually get snow in La Niña winters.

[James Jones]

Yikes, where in MI? Might be okay if you're near one of the lakes, particularly an eastern shoreline.

 

Trying to convince myself that "the monster" will stay to my west, but deep down I know I'm screwed, as that never happens.

Grand Rapids. It can get pretty ridiculous there, at least by my standards.

[TT-SEA]

Grand Rapids. It can get pretty ridiculous there, at least by my standards.

 

 

If you are on a lake then its all good.    My in-laws living in MN always cheer for the hottest weather possible for our reunion each year.   And you always have the possibility of crazy thunderstorms.

[TT-SEA]

The trend in most of the modeling/ensembles has been for a stronger offshore ridge, deeper western trough, which would expected given the pattern drivers going forward.

 

 

Looks like the ECMWF ensemble mean agrees very well with the operational run at 240 hours,

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls14/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls14-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-EL2fPu.png

[Deweydog]

Someone is letting all this unmitigated troughing really get under their skin!

Jesse wannabe.

[Bryant]

Totally unnecessary.

 

I was just following up on your post from last night.

 

Can we stop the personal attacks please? Keep it about weather and not what you assume other people are thinking.

You want him to stop what you've been doing for years?

[TT-SEA]

Nice day...

 

[TT-SEA]

You want him to stop what you've been doing for years?

 

Then I need to step up my game!    I am not keeping up.   Good to know.

[Phil]

Looks like the ECMWF ensemble mean agrees very well with the operational run at 240 hours,

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls14/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls14-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-EL2fPu.png

It's notably cooler at the surface and 850mb vs 00z, and troughier in the 11-15 day range with lower 500mb heights.

 

The trough is deeper but also father west, as you noted. Will have to see how this trends, but overall solidly supports the idea of continued -PNA/west coast troughing through July.

[Phil]

Nice day...

 

Great picture. The PNW scenery is undeniably the most beautiful of anywhere in the nation, in my opinion, especially when it snows.

[TT-SEA]

Great picture. The PNW scenery is undeniably the most beautiful of anywhere in the nation, in my opinion, especially when it snows.

 

 

I was just mentioning that to my wife... there is almost no place more scenic when it snows than in our area here.

[Phil]

Quite the shift in SSTAs observed over the last month, as the global circulations have swung into a new background state following the stabilization of the ocean/atmosphere coupling(s) in the tropics, and their subsequent synchronization with the branstrator wave.

 

[Phil]

Noting the changes over the NPAC, I have to wonder if the PDO will drop faster than many are thinking over the next several months. Virtually all of the modeling maintains a +PDO reflection into fall/winter, which would be strange given the nature of the circulation over the NPAC/globe. Those few years that stayed +PDO didn't have the low wavenumber and anomalous anticyclone over the NPAC during summer/fall that the majority developing Niña years (including this one) have.

[James Jones]

If you are on a lake then its all good.    My in-laws living in MN always cheer for the hottest weather possible for our reunion each year.   And you always have the possibility of crazy thunderstorms.

We'll spend some time at the lake, but my grandparents are there too and they're not mobile enough for that kind of stuff at this point. 

 

And yeah, I'm really rooting for some convection. I've experienced enough thunderstorms out there that I no longer really have a capacity to be impressed by our dinky little storms. 

[Front Ranger]

I have said nothing at all.

 

When we are tracking models there is no need for personal attacks.   Its so simple.   Fred is really tired of it.  

 

Certain members have crossed the line at times, but this particular time was not a "personal attack". It was harmless ribbing, well deserved. 

[Front Ranger]

Plenty of sun for me.

 

The last week of June was nice.    Last week we had lots of sun in Couer D'Alene.  

 

And its sunny here now.    And it looks more sunny than cloudy overall this week with the exception of tomorrow afternoon.

 

Also have two Chelan trips coming up and of course a long trip to Minnesota,  

 

   

[Front Ranger]

Selfish bastard. At least your heat is dry.

 

Plus you actually get snow in La Niña winters.

 

Yes, though our least snowy winters tend to be La Ninas.

[Front Ranger]

Jesse wannabe.

 

[TT-SEA]

Not every day in the summer of 2015 was sunnier than 2016... here is a comparison of 7-11-15 and then today.  

 

 

[Deweydog]

Not every day in the summer of 2015 was sunnier than 2016... here is a comparison of 7-11-15 and then today.

 

 

Starting to think 2015 might be a poor analog...

[TT-SEA]

Looks like SEA is going to post another 0 departure day.    72 right now after a low of 57.    The low was +2 and the high will likely end up -1 or -2.   

 

The month of no extremes either way.   3 days slightly above normal... 4 days slightly below normal... and this might be the 4th day with a departure of 0.

 

 

 

Same story in Olympia running a -0.7 for the month.

 

Bellingham has only been below normal 2 days this month and is at +0.7

 

Astoria is at +2.2

 

Portland at -1.0   (station always runs cold   )

 

Salem at +0.5

 

Eugene at +0.4

 

I think the models that showed a -10 departure by 7/10 for most of the region had a seriously cold bias because the pattern has certainly been troughy as expected.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like SEA is going to post another 0 departure day.    72 right now after a low of 57.    The low was +2 and the high will likely end up -1 or -2.   

 

The month of no extremes either way.   3 days slightly above normal... 4 days slightly below normal... and this might be the 4th day with a departure of 0.

 

 

 

Same story in Olympia running a -0.7 for the month.

 

Bellingham has only been below normal 2 days this month and is at +0.7

 

Astoria is at +2.2

 

Portland at -1.0

 

Salem at +0.5

 

Eugene at +0.4

 

How did we think most of the region would be running a -10 or a -7 by 7/10?  

 

PERSONAL ATTACK!

[stuffradio]

I was just mentioning that to my wife... there is almost no place more scenic when it snows than in our area here.

Especially places like Whistler, Mt. Baker and some of the glaciers/alpines we have here.

[Deweydog]

It's lovely outside.