July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

-10F departures for the first 10 Days of July would be a tall order.  Probably a little above average thru 2 days here.  You would need 8 days of low to mid 60s / mid 40s type of days. 

 

 

Just asking.

 

Down boy.

 

Seems odd you'd even mention it especially considering 20% of said period has already been at or a little above average. Incredulous.

 

Sometimes common sense is king.

 

 

The GFS is around -7F regionwide through 7/12. What does a few degrees matter in regards to the context of my original post?

 

 

[James Jones]

A while back I hid a bunch of posts that were full of nitpicking and bickering.  Someone whined up a storm to iFred .  iFred lets them slide so I did too.  But iFred didn’t say that I couldn’t move the bickering to a different thread.

 

The only reason I haven’t done that yet is that I can’t decide on a topic name.

 

Here are some of the names I’ve considered:

1. Would Tim and Phil Shut Up and Kiss Already?  (Kiss wasn’t my first choice, but you know…)
2. Read This If You Can’t Fall Asleep
3. A Course in Convoluted Communication as Taught at Trump University
4. Please, Would Somebody Just F***ing  Shoot Me Already

Of course I’m open to suggestions.

Can we do this now?

[TT-SEA]

Thunder

[GobBluth]

Thunder

No, lighting.

 

----Phil

[Front Ranger]

No, lighting.

 

----Phil

 

I have a feeling he may be forcibly removed from the forum for a bit after the outburst today.

[Phil]

You were referencing surface temps. People were explaining to you what type of temps it would take to get that kind of departure.

 

There is no question.

I was not referencing surface temps, sorry dude. Look at the NCEP archives, the GFS never had -7F anywhere.

 

It wasn't even close to my forecast (-0.4F @ SEA, -0.7F @ PDX). Is that evidence enough?

[Geos]

Can see the t-storm cells off to the east and southeast. Cool!

 

[Phil]

I have a feeling he may be forcibly removed from the forum for a bit after the outburst today.

I don't care. The dude is a lying piece of s**t with no scientific integrity. I can't take it anymore.

[TT-SEA]

Can see the t-storm cells off to the east and southeast. Cool!

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/ATX/N0Q/ATX.N0Q.20160722.0001.gif

 

Nearly constant thunder here... cool looking cloud to cloud lightning to the east.

[ShawniganLake]

18z was toasty. Maybe 100 a week from now in Portland.

[Phil]

We did transition to a drier and more stable pattern after 7/12. That could not have been more accurate!

 

It rained on 10 out of the first 12 days this month here. And it was much colder.

 

Only one day with rain since that time... and its been much warmer. Only 1 day below normal.

 

It was warm last week but this week has been even warmer in terms of average. And then we have really warm all of next week. You would know that if you were living here.

You didn't think troughing would last beyond 7/11 or 7/12, and clearly stated as such. It lasted into week 4.

 

PDX was below average by 7/10.

[TT-SEA]

I don't care. The dude is a lying piece of s**t with no scientific integrity. I can't take it anymore.

For the record... I am not lying. You were talking surface temps. We were all talking surface temps.

 

Models have been running too cold. That is the point.

[Phil]

Going to highlight this one more time.

 

I was not referencing surface temps, sorry dude. Look at the NCEP archives, the GFS never had -7F anywhere.

 

It wasn't even close to my forecast (-0.4F @ SEA, -0.7F @ PDX). Is that evidence enough?

[Phil]

For the record... I am not lying. You were talking surface temps. We were all talking surface temps.

 

Models have been running too cold. That is the point.

No, I wasn't. For the last time.

[TT-SEA]

Best lightning display in a long time here... not a drop of rain though.

[FroYoBro]

I like to imagine that Phil is just character Tim created so he can argue with himself all day. Makes it much more enjoyable to read.

[Deweydog]

D**n near dangerously warm out there.

[TT-SEA]

No, I wasn't. For the last time.

OK. End discussion. Matt knows as well.

[TT-SEA]

84 at SEA.

 

85 here and a lightning display. Good summer day.

[Deweydog]

OK. End discussion. Matt knows as well.

I don't care. You guys have gone ******* nuts over it.

[TT-SEA]

I don't care. You guys have gone ******* nuts over it.

You know it was surface of course. You called him out for it.

 

Models have been too cold. We could go back a couple weeks and probably pull up those really cold runs and verify results. Same thing with last week and this week as well.

 

Problem seems to have resolved itself now because I doubt they are too cold for next week..

[TT-SEA]

Big drop coming tomorrow... maybe 10-12 degrees cooler up here.   Slow recovery on Saturday.

[Deweydog]

You know it was surface of course. You called him out for it.

 

Models have been too cold. We could go back a couple weeks and probably pull up those really cold runs and verify results. Same thing with last week and this week as well.

 

Problem seems to have resolved itself now because I doubt they are too cold for next week..

Who ******* cares at this point???

 

Everyone here already knows you two can be equally full of sometimes.

[TT-SEA]

Who ******* cares at this point???

 

Everyone here already knows you two can be equally full of s**t sometimes.

 

I care because it pertains to the discussion now about the models.   

 

And I have owned up to my incorrect calls.

[Jesse]

Appears a pretty decent long range forecaster may be driven from the forum thanks to familiar antics.

[TT-SEA]

Driven?   He is the driver most of the time.   

[Phil]

Enough. Shawnigan and Dewey specifically called you out because it would never be that cold at the surface. You then brought up the GFS run at -7. Just stop. We all know it was surface temps and the models were very wrong for this side of the mountains.

No, you stop. I stated I was referring to 850mb temperatures in my previous posts on that page. End of discussion.

[Deweydog]

Appears a pretty decent long range forecaster may be driven from the forum thanks to familiar antics.

They're both nuts.

 

And there's no way Phil is leaving. Settle down.

[TT-SEA]

No, you stop. I stated I was referring to 850mb temperatures in my previous posts on that page. End of discussion.

 

 

You said -13C at the 850mb level on the previous page.   Which was -30F.  

 

It can't be any more clear.     The discussion shifted to predicted anomalies at the stations by the 10th.

[Phil]

Driven? He is the driver most of the time.

No, you're trying to pull a gotcha where none exists. You do this constantly and fall on your face every d**n time. When is enough actually enough?

[FroYoBro]

Pretty surprising that PDX made it to 90 today. 

[Jesse]

They're both nuts.

 

And there's no way Phil is leaving. Settle down.

I'm settled. I've stayed out this for the most part.

 

There is a chance he leaves for awhile. I would with the constant badgering. It would be a shame since he's done pretty well with the big picture this summer.

[Phil]

You said -13C at the 850mb level on the previous page. Which was -30F.

 

It can't be any more clear. The discussion shifted to predicted anomalies at the stations by the 10th.

Read carefully. The -30F post was in reference to one particular day, while the -10F was in reference to the entire 10 day period. You know, because you wager was for 7/1 to 7/10?

 

Think about it, dude. No model had -10F at the surface.

[TT-SEA]

No, you stop. I stated I was referring to 850mb temperatures in my previous posts on that page. End of discussion.

 

 

Not sure why you are defending the models.   You did not make that a prediction.   You were reading those anomalies directly from the models.    Why is that personal?   The models were way too cold.   

 

Just like this week.   I never saw it being as warm as it has been the last 3 days based on the models last week.   

[Phil]

I'm not defending the models, I'm defending my interpretation of the models because no model had -10F at the surface. Okay?

[James Jones]

Pretty surprising that PDX made it to 90 today. 

Come on bro, this forum isn't for discussing weather in a reasonable manner. It's for Tim and Phil to bicker endlessly over utterly trivial nonsense that nobody else gives even the slightest **** about.

[TT-SEA]

Wow, that's crazy! We have all been anticipating the heat next week that we overlooked today, including myself. This bodes well for temperatures over achieving next week. 

 

 

Maybe not... today was just a perfect storm for warmth with a delayed trough and good mixing.     That probably does not mean anything for the temps predicted for next week. 

[Deweydog]

I doubt they hit 90.

[Jesse]

Wow, that's crazy! We have all been anticipating the heat next week that we overlooked today, including myself. This bodes well for temperatures over achieving next week.

What happened today doesn't really have any bearing on next week.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty surprising that PDX made it to 90 today. 

 

Says 87.