August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Marine layer making a run at Seattle this morning... probably the coolest day of the week ahead.

 

[TT-SEA]

I'm just as miserable, dude. Trust me, I get it.

 

After our warmest winter on record, we followed with our cloudiest/nastiest April/May on record, now yet another nasty summer that'll finish with 50-60 days above 90 degrees, and over 70 days with heat indices above 100 degrees.

 

Not to mention we've had three consecutive 100+ days, could be #4 today.

 

 

The difference is... you would have LOVED our summer.    Your weather is truly miserable with the heat and humidity.    We have had a summer with most days in the 70s and 80s and no humidity by your standards.     In other words... close to perfection.    

 

There is no comparison and you can't equate the two by saying its also miserable in Seattle because its been a little above our relatively cool normal.    That is just Jim complaining because he wants it to be really cold.  

[Deweydog]

Marine layer making a run at Seattle this morning... probably the coolest day of the week ahead.

 

Marine layer daze!

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z NAM shifted the digging trough east for Thursday and Friday.  

[Deweydog]

FWIW... the 12Z NAM shifted the digging trough east for Thursday and Friday.

Similarly cooler for Friday compared to the 00z version.

[Deweydog]

Good lord...

[Phil]

Good lord...

Yeah?

[Jesse]

Similarly cooler for Friday compared to the 00z version.

Really interesting setup, but I don't like the fact that it seems to lead to a longer heat event.

[Jesse]

Good lord...

12z trending further west?

[Deweydog]

12z trending further west?

Information overload.

[Jesse]

Information overload.

:/

[Deweydog]

:/

GFS has gone to hourly frames. It's intimidating.

[GobBluth]

the new gfs is attempting a ridge retrogression.

[GobBluth]

GFS has gone to hourly frames. It's intimidating.

When did that change? It's bizarre running a loop.

[TT-SEA]

We will really be able to time all the arctic outbreaks this winter with the new hourly format!

[Jesse]

I was just looking at the forecast for parts of Montana late this week and the contrast between here and there is pretty interesting.

 

Bozeman is forecast to be 63/41 Friday while it is possibly pushing 100 here. Definitely a fallish setup with a cool, dry airmass spilling down the northern Rockies and triggering hot offshore flow for us.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS trended east with the initial trough and is cooler early next week.

[GobBluth]

12Z GFS trended east with the initial trough and is cooler early next week.

100s probably off the table.

[Jesse]

100s probably off the table.

I'm going to call Blizzard to see if he's ok.

[TT-SEA]

100s probably off the table.

 

 

Good

[BLI snowman]

I was just looking at the forecast for parts of Montana late this week and the contrast between here and there is pretty interesting.

 

Bozeman is forecast to be 63/41 Friday while it is possibly pushing 100 here. Definitely a fallish setup with a cool, dry airmass spilling down the northern Rockies and triggering hot offshore flow for us.

 

It would be a cold pattern in the winter!

[BLI snowman]

Did we get a PDO check yet?

 

Only 1.25 for July. That's almost negative!

[Jesse]

Pretty decent marine intrusion this morning.

 

PDX *may* struggle to hit 85 today.

 

Will also be interesting to see if EUG can keep up the 90+ streak.

[Jesse]

It would be a cold pattern in the winter!

Indeed it would.

[Geos]

Marine layer making a run at Seattle this morning... probably the coolest day of the week ahead.

 

 

Yeah I noticed the fog this morning around here. Clouds are retreating quickly to the west now.

[TT-SEA]

Nice...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Abbotsford_wx]

Yup, today will under-perform for temperature. Yesterday was 81 here. The forecast for today is 82, but we're running about 3.5 degrees off yesterday's pace.

[Bryant]

The difference is... you would have LOVED our summer. Your weather is truly miserable with the heat and humidity. We have had a summer with most days in the 70s and 80s and no humidity by your standards. In other words... close to perfection.

 

There is no comparison and you can't equate the two by saying its also miserable in Seattle because its been a little above our relatively cool normal. That is just Jim complaining because he wants it to be really cold.

"Close to perfection" is your opinion, why make it sound like it's a fact instead? I personally have not been a fan of the hot temps this summer and would have much more enjoyed cooler weather

[TT-SEA]

"Close to perfection" is your opinion, why make it sound like it's a fact instead? I personally have not been a fan of the hot temps this summer and would have much more enjoyed cooler weather

 

Complain all you want about our relatively cool summers! 

[Front Ranger]

Did we get a PDO check yet?

 

Only 1.25 for July. That's almost negative!

 

August is on pace to be near neutral. 31 month +PDO streak may finally come to an end soon.

[Front Ranger]

Right now we are just dealing with a wavy jet stream pattern. The fact this is occurring this early is a good sign. Right now we are seeing west coast ridging because we are still in summer and storms aren't strong enough to break through yet. This is just climatology here in the PNW. This is evident with the models trying to get a trough in here to break up the ridge but it keeps coming back. I think the ridging will finally go away sometime in mid September. I'm confident that the anomalous GOA ridge will be there for us this Winter.

 

I think what concerns people about the summer anomalies is that in the recent regime, the summers have been very hot, and the following winters have also been warm/lousy. It's been next to impossible to get a below normal month most places any season (except November).

 

A below normal August would have given people more reason to believe the tide had truly turned. That's mainly why Snow Wiz and Jesse got so worked up.

[BLI snowman]

Thursday night could be pretty toasty in spots where those east winds surface. 85 degree lows in SE Portland?

[Jesse]

I think what concerns people about the summer anomalies is that in the recent regime, the summers have been very hot, and the following winters have also been warm/lousy. It's been next to impossible to get a below normal month most places any season (except November).

 

A below normal August would have given people more reason to believe the tide had truly turned. That's mainly why Snow Wiz and Jesse got so worked up.

When was I worked up?

 

Stop trying to use exaggerated caricatures of others to make yourself appear more reasonable. You were doing the same thing last night.

[Jesse]

Right now we are just dealing with a wavy jet stream pattern. The fact this is occurring this early is a good sign. Right now we are seeing west coast ridging because we are still in summer and storms aren't strong enough to break through yet. This is just climatology here in the PNW. This is evident with the models trying to get a trough in here to break up the ridge but it keeps coming back. I think the ridging will finally go away sometime in mid September. I'm confident that the anomalous GOA ridge will be there for us this Winter.

A strong ridge sitting over us all summer is not climo.

[Front Ranger]

When was I worked up?

 

Stop trying to use exaggerated caricatures of others to make yourself appear more reasonable. You were doing the same thing last night.

 

Ok...the fact that you're taking offense to just about everything right now says enough. The disappearing cool August is bothering you, you made that clear. I'm not exaggerating anything.

[Jesse]

Ok...the fact that you're taking offense to just about everything right now says enough. The lack of a cool August is bothering you, you made that clear. I'm not exaggerating anything.

Nice catch 22 buddy. Accuse me of being worked up for no reason, then when I defend myself, go "see??".

 

I've been just fine. This is the second time in the last 24 hours you have implied that I'm either worked up or unrealistic, without any provoking. Cut it out already.

[Front Ranger]

It appears we are now beginning to pay for our very pleasant first 2/3 of the summer, overall.

 

Was really hoping we could avoid this kind of thing this year.

 

 

Just my druthers. Enjoy your very favoritest type of weather. A lot of it on the way it appears.

 

 

The bad old days are back!

 

Wake me up in a week and a half...

 

"Worked up" doesn't mean the same thing for you as it does for Jim (less ranting and threatening to leave the PNW on your part), but these are the general posts that inspired my comments.

[Jesse]

Ok...the fact that you're taking offense to just about everything right now says enough. The disappearing cool August is bothering you, you made that clear. I'm not exaggerating anything.

I've made maybe a post or two about if. You've probably posted about it 2-3 times more. Are you worked up about it??

 

I went slightly above normal for August in the forecast contest, fwiw.

 

Anyway, Jim is the one who was having issues with cursing or climate last night. Don't lump me in there. Not fair.

[Guest Winterdog]

I think what concerns people about the summer anomalies is that in the recent regime, the summers have been very hot, and the following winters have also been warm/lousy. It's been next to impossible to get a below normal month most places any season (except November).

 

A below normal August would have given people more reason to believe the tide had truly turned. That's mainly why Snow Wiz and Jesse got so worked up.

You are exactly right. I sympathized with Snow Wiz because that is just how I feel about August turning warm again. It's kind of like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, looking desperately for anything different to break this awful cycle.

[Jesse]

"Worked up" doesn't mean the same thing for you as it does for Jim (less ranting and threatening to leave the PNW on your part), but these are the general posts that inspired my comments.

Three whole posts! Good lord, I have been out of control.

 

Can you please just stop whatever you are trying to do? I really don't want to go around with you like this every day. Thank you.