August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Well it's all but official, Blizzard nailed it despite looking at outdated models last Sunday.

[wx_statman]

Are you guys ever gonna get this June/September thing figured out?

 

Interestingly enough, September is running away from June. At PDX we've seen 1.2F warming in September between 1961-90 and 1981-2010. Only 0.5F warming in June. 

 

June was 0.2F warmer than September in 1961-90...now September is 0.5F warmer than June.

 

So, September has pretty clearly taken over June as our third summer month. 

[Front Ranger]

Interestingly enough, September is running away from June. At PDX we've seen 1.2F warming in September between 1961-90 and 1981-2010. Only 0.5F warming in June.

 

June was 0.2F warmer than September in 1961-90...now September is 0.5F warmer than June.

 

So, September has pretty clearly taken over June as our third summer month.

That's PDX. Different story further north.

[Geos]

Up to 82° here. 

 

Smoke plume really visible near Mt. Olympus.

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Even at PDX...things even out over time. 

 

Junes since 2013: 66.3

Septembers since 2013: 65.4

[Geos]

After what we witnessed last Thursday to Saturday this doesn't feel like anything. I'm done with Summer, bring on Autumn.

 

Yeah - I'm at least ready for some days where it's in the 60s and a little rain.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah - I'm at least ready for some days where it's in the 60s and a little rain.

 

Are you staying here?

[Timmy Supercell]

September is easily a 4th summer month in Klamath. Quite easy to achieve to long periods of 80's and a few 90's without a lick of precip. Though the last week tends to average an introduction of early Fall type weather. But then again June does usually have its mid or early month cooldown as well. There's nothing September has that June doesn't have except maybe some years we can lack convection after August.

[Jesse]

Good call Matt on the slow warming after a fast start.

[Timmy Supercell]

I know exactly what will happen. December blast out in the mountains with some snow/ice in the lowlands. January and February will continue to be traditional soakers with mid 50's and rain. I predict 1 or 2 decent wind events (maybe not during the snow but before and after maybe). No dry arctic events. Enjoy a few pineapple outbreaks late season, with the possibility of a squall line or two.

 

Putting money on this one

[Deweydog]

Somebody told me this will be the best winter since at least 2008-09.

[Timmy Supercell]

Near 100% chance my section of the PNW will see less snow this year, we were pretty much buried last December. And with Crater Lake beating a 1948 December record snowfall with 196.70". But I can imagine January and February achieving more snow since 2016 didn't see much.

[Jesse]

Somebody told me this will be the best winter since at least 2008-09.

Oh give the little guy a break. He reminds me of you 20 years ago.

[Timmy Supercell]

Wow that's crazy, I didn't know that. How much snow did your region get the following Winter in 1949-1950? Up here we got hammered. 

 

Region-wise, not sure about snowfall from year to year, I'd need to ask NWS if they have all those records.

 

I could pull up some Klamath Falls numbers though. There was a winter in 1950's we had 100" (Dec/Jan/Feb all getting more than 30"!). I hope I never see that as long as I'm here. Not a snow lover.

[stuffradio]

It has much more to do with his behavior and tone than they way he leans as far as weather preference.

 

Weren't you just saying a few days ago he was due for "sanctions"?

 

There are plenty of people here who enjoy warmth and aren't obsessive douchebags about it who constantly pollute the forum with endless bickering and trolling. I mean endless. Beyond obsessive. A constant barrage. He has almost double the posts of the next closest person. You know this is all true.

 

Granted, I may not be a model member but I believe I am not as bad as him.

I noticed you were as bad while I was on my personal ban during the winter months. I would leave for a few days or a week, then the first thing I read when I come back is a post by you or Tim fighting with each other. The sarcasm/passive aggressive jokes around here gets a bit much sometimes.

[Deweydog]

Oh give the little guy a break. He reminds me of you 20 years ago.

You really think he's that old?

[Deweydog]

Impressive 85 at Astoria considering the paltry nature of the air mass and NW winds at the surface. Might need to do a runway inventory.

[Jesse]

You really think he's that old?

You're what, 41?

 

I'm 30. So if he's me 10 years ago that would make him 20. You 20 years ago would make him 21.

[Phil]

Somebody told me this will be the best winter since at least 2008-09.

Did you forget your Viagra or something?

[Deweydog]

Did you forget your Viagra or something?

Will Viagra make it snow?

[Phil]

There's no reason to think this winter won't perform on the level of 2008-09, if you ask me. Solid progression of the westerlies down to 50mb already, so we'll have a deep layer +QBO/-ENSO w/ declining solar forcing this winter. That's the #1 combo for an amplified, poleward NPAC anticyclone.

 

Note the UWND progression @ 50mb:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/20972189-FC02-4579-82C4-1EB565BC653D_zpsqaocjc6i.jpg

[Phil]

Will Viagra make it snow?

Only you can answer that.

[Deweydog]

You're what, 41?

 

I'm 30. So if he's me 10 years ago that would make him 20. You 20 years ago would make him 21.

 

I was thinking 17-18.  But I also tend to think of people here being perpetually ageless.  Weird.

 

You got me thinking, though.  What did I do 20 years ago as pertaining to weather geekdom?  It was NOAA weather radio twice a day and Mark Nelsen/Jim Little/Matt Zaffino et al.  I was still about a year away from my first exposure to the MRF (I think).  You just had to ride the waves and hope for the best.  I seriously think the weather nerd generation gap is about as big as they come.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Hey, this actually lines up with what my prediction said. January '09 was pretty D**n wet! I remember New Year's Day 2009, wouldn't stop pouring!

 

Edit: Just realized that was the wettest day and maybe the month as a whole wasn't too wet.

[Deweydog]

Only you can answer that.

 

It does not.  

[Phil]

It does not.

 

[Deweydog]

There's no reason to think this winter won't perform on the level of 2008-09, if you ask me. Solid progression of the westerlies down to 50mb already, so we'll have a deep layer +QBO/-ENSO w/ declining solar forcing this winter. That's the #1 combo for an amplified, poleward NPAC anticyclone.

 

Note the UWND progression @ 50mb:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/20972189-FC02-4579-82C4-1EB565BC653D_zpsqaocjc6i.jpg

 

2008-09 was low-level driven greatness, aside from 10 days in December.  Snow totals are a fickle pickle up in these parts.  

[Deweydog]

 

Believe it or not it's one of the first FAQ on the product website.

[Phil]

2008-09 was low-level driven greatness, aside from 10 days in December. Snow totals are a fickle pickle up in these parts.

I'm not suggesting they'll be analogous in every respect, but strong, favorably-located blocking over the NPAC is looking much more likely, so long as the westerlies continue to strengthen and cycle coherently through 50mb.

[Deweydog]

I'm not suggesting they'll be analogous in every respect, but strong, favorably-located blocking over the NPAC is looking much more likely, so long as the westerlies continue to strengthen and cycle coherently through 50mb.

Seems we've had blockier winters since then.

[snow_wizard]

There's no reason to think this winter won't perform on the level of 2008-09, if you ask me. Solid progression of the westerlies down to 50mb already, so we'll have a deep layer +QBO/-ENSO w/ declining solar forcing this winter. That's the #1 combo for an amplified, poleward NPAC anticyclone.

 

Note the UWND progression @ 50mb:

 

 

We have already been seeing the poleward NPAC anticyclone on a frequent basis.  I really like our chances.  It is interesting to note the positive anomaly center this summer has been nearly in the exact same spot it was during the summer of 1949.

[snow_wizard]

I agree. The biggest wildcard will be moisture. Hopefully we get a region wide event like December 2008 and not December 2013 and to a lesser event February 2014.

 

Anecdotal evidence says the blocking will be a bit further west this winter than it was during 2013-14.

[Phil]

Seems we've had blockier winters since then.

Sure, but the tropical forcing(s) and strat/PV haven't really aligned favorably timing-wise since then. Both 2010-11 and 2013-14 were close but missing key components, namely an elongated Walker Cell and/or anticyclonic wave-2s.

[Deweydog]

Sure, but the tropical forcing(s) and strat/PV haven't really aligned favorably timing-wise since then.

Fair enough. I guess we'll see how things shape up.

[Phil]

Why can't the entire country share the blues? I have a nasty case of autumn fever right now.

 

This pattern..lol

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/510050FE-3AB5-4DFB-B0DD-143067CC1CFF_zpspfisb6e3.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B91CAF3C-FF7D-4EB2-A5BC-746433F9A440_zpsx5zitsrw.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C18B085B-C5E0-4B9D-9A14-5570B3E9A76E_zpsncpgksfc.jpg

[Front Ranger]

You're what, 41?

 

I'm 30. So if he's me 10 years ago that would make him 20. You 20 years ago would make him 21.

He did say he has a 401k.

[TT-SEA]

Why can't the entire country share the blues? I have a nasty case of autumn fever right now.

 

This pattern..lol

 

 

 

 

 

Portland is above normal in all 3 images.   Close to 3-5 degrees above normal in the 11-15 day range.  

[TT-SEA]

Phil... do you have a list of viable fall/winter analogs yet?

[Deweydog]

He did say he has a 401k.

Thought he was already retired?

[Deweydog]

Portland is above normal in all 3 images. Close to 3-5 degrees above normal in the 11-15 day range.

I had a strong feeling you were gonna jump on that.