September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

 

 

 

Weather geek alert! Brookings on the southern Oregon coast hit 100 degrees today and it is still 91 there at 9 PM.

 

 

 

It's the same weather pattern that will have us so warm tomorrow (85-90)

 

 

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KBOK&table=1&banner=off

Unlikely we see offshore flow tomorrow.

[Deweydog]

 

 

 

Weather geek alert! Brookings on the southern Oregon coast hit 100 degrees today and it is still 91 there at 9 PM.

 

 

 

It's the same weather pattern that will have us so warm tomorrow (85-90)

 

 

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KBOK&table=1&banner=off

Astoria Syndrome (AS).

[Jesse]

Astoria Syndrome (AS).

 

Is that kind of like asperger's?

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is no doubt about it cool Wednesday night through Sunday.  Two really chilly nights and all days cool during the period.

[snow_wizard]

 

Weather geek alert! Brookings on the southern Oregon coast hit 100 degrees today and it is still 91 there at 9 PM.

 

It's the same weather pattern that will have us so warm tomorrow (85-90)

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KBOK&table=1&banner=off

 

 

It appears the thermal trough reached it's peak well south of us this time.

[Deweydog]

Is that kind of like asperger's?

Warm anomalies do make for some very awkward social interactions.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is colder looking than the GFS.  850s are around zero down to Seattle on day 10.

[snow_wizard]

We should all feel safe knowing Leonardo Decaprio and Obama are meeting on climate change.  According to Leo's little speech at the Academy Awards they had to go to the Southern Hemisphere to find snow for the movie he was shooting.  This was during winter in Northern Hemisphere.  Sounds a bit fishy to me....

 

Looking into it deeper he actually says he witnessed climate change first hand in Alberta!  Turns out he witnessed nothing more than a Chinook wind, but he apparently still doesn't get that.  God help us....

 

I'm still wondering how they went to Argentina to find snow while it was summer down there.

[TT-SEA]

Watch out for midnight lows...DP at 48.

 

 

The +8 stands from yesterday... no midnight low.   

 

SEA is now at -0.4 for the month and might be right about normal after tomorrow.  

 

WFO SEA is tracking well with SEA at -0.5... while Bellingham is up to +0.7 now.

[TT-SEA]

Ironically it looks like another month that has deep troughing early on... July, August, and September all had the coldest anomalies of the month in the first week at SEA.

[Jesse]

What a chilly month so far for the region. Even with the slightly warm day yesterday...

 

[Phil]

Don't like the trend in the GFS/GEFS to initiate an Alaskan/GOA vortex in mid-October. Hopefully just a blip or transient development.

[Phil]

GFS/GEFS are throwing subsidence across the EHEM in the LR, while the EPS/GGEM ensembles have a standing wave @ 150E. Talk about model disagreement.

[Front Ranger]

The +8 stands from yesterday... no midnight low.   

 

 

There was at OLM. 

[Jesse]

Looks like the ridging that will dominate the region for most of October is about to move overhead on day 10 of the 12z Euro...

[TT-SEA]

Midwest and East are due for some longer duration troughing.

[TT-SEA]

80 here... gorgeous day.   We had a little east wind this morning as well. 

[Phil]

Midwest and East are due for some longer duration troughing.

I'm considering witchcraft. Have been sitting under a ridge since Memorial Day.

[Phil]

Huge differences between the EPS & GEFS in the global tropics. Literally night and day.

[Jesse]

Huge differences between the EPS & GEFS in the global tropics. Literally night and day.

Literally? Maybe you're just looking at different halves of the globe for the same time frame.

[Phil]

Modest NPAC jet extension still looks probable, starting around d10 +/- a few days. Question is, how does the pattern evolve from there?

 

We could fall into a +EPO/-AO type pattern (ugly) or the antecedent block could assist/force a cyclonic wavebreak response, maintaining EPO/GOA ridging (awesomeness).

[luminen]

Cloudy and 62F here right now. I was just out walking and with a breeze it feels a bit chillier than what I was expecting today.

[FroYoBro]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-qATOgCoLg

 

This forecast doesn't call for any snow in the PNW.

[Timmy Supercell]

Mkay, really starting to hate yellow jackets, and bees in general. When is *FALL* gonna kick in?

 

October is so close yet so far away. September has gotta be at least #1 or #2 worst bee month in Klamath. 

[Jesse]

Mkay, really starting to hate yellow jackets, and bees in general. When is *FALL* gonna kick in?

 

October is so close yet so far away. September has gotta be at least #1 or #2 worst bee month in Klamath.

*FALL* has been here. Your area has been well below average his month. See map I posted above.

[Timmy Supercell]

*FALL* has been here. Your area has been well below average his month. See map I posted above.

 

Even so, I still had some highs in the 80's (including today). I officially will start calling it Fall when I am consistently into the 50's-60's and have scattered showers.

[Jesse]

Even so, I still had some highs in the 80's (including today). I officially will start calling it Fall when I am consistently into the 50's-60's and have scattered showers.

Fall is a dynamic season. A record cold September would still be warmer than even a normal October. At least that's the case up here.

[stuffradio]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-qATOgCoLg

 

This forecast doesn't call for any snow in the PNW.

On the plus side, there will be lots of rain in Vancouver, BC. le sigh I think he's one of those East coast weenies.

[Deweydog]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-qATOgCoLg

 

This forecast doesn't call for any snow in the PNW.

 

I think I heard something about Vancouver, BC in there.

 

Intriguing.  He's usually not this confident this far out.  

[TT-SEA]

I think I heard something about Vancouver, BC in there.

 

Intriguing.  He's usually not this confident this far out.  

 

 

What is his track record???   Can we count on this forecast?   Thankfully he did not mention Seattle.   I  am thinking this means a warm conveyor belt situation with Seattle on the warm, dry side.   I am going with that.  

 

Given his very cold and snowy forecast for Minnesota and North Dakota and Wiscooooooooosin... I think we are looking at a western ridge /  Midwest trough situation in 2016-17.    Basically agreeing with Bastardi.

 

This is sort of how I imagine some people on here when it comes to cold and snow.  

 

Winter is coming... winter is coming.   Going to be a lot of snow.    Going to be a lot of snow.  

[Deweydog]

What is his track record???   Can we count on this forecast?   Thankfully he did not mention Seattle.   I  am thinking this means a warm conveyor belt situation with Seattle on the warm, dry side.   I am going with that.  

 

This is sort of how I imagine some people on here when it comes to cold and snow.  

 

Winter is coming... winter is coming.   Going to be a lot of snow.    Going to be a lot of snow.  

 

Frantic edits!!!  

[Timmy Supercell]

Fall is a dynamic season. A record cold September would still be warmer than even a normal October. At least that's the case up here.

 

I can have a few warm October days but overall the month does average much colder than September. Here I personally categorize September as a 4th meteorological summer month due to the prolonged and consistent "nothingness" that happens. Sometimes I don't even manage a trace of rain in the whole month of September.

[TT-SEA]

Frantic edits!!!  

 

No... I just watched it again and gleaned some more important information about a cold Midwest.   I think this is this is very meaningful to our forecast.  

 

Big picture Matt... big picture.

[stuffradio]

No... I just watched it again and gleaned some more important information about a cold Midwest.   I think this is this is very meaningful to our forecast.  

 

Big picture Matt... big picture.

Diversity hits again!

[FroYoBro]

I think I heard something about Vancouver, BC in there.

 

Intriguing.  He's usually not this confident this far out.  

 

He just said that it is going to rain a lot in Vancouver, BC. 

 

WE ARE SCREWED.

[Deweydog]

He just said that it is going to rain a lot in Vancouver, BC. 

 

WE ARE SCREWED.

 

[Weather101]

He just said that it is going to rain a lot in Vancouver, BC.

 

WE ARE SCREWED.

It's over

[Front Ranger]

It's ok, guys. Some winters it rains a lot, but still snows a lot, too.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's over

WINTER CANCEL!!!!!

[Weather101]

Woah Hillary hasn't fainted yet.