Tom Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 1st week of Feb looks wonderful on the 18z GFS... Some powerhouse storm potential. You can see the blocking setting up and a perfect west/east storm track that I've been seeing since a couple weeks ago. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 I know this the Great Lakes forum but given the fact that the plains forum is dead I think I'll camp out here. Have learned a lot anyway. Been almost a month since we've had any precip in Kansas City and long rangers don't look to great for our area. Cold and dry. This has to give. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 KC will be in a good spot in terms of storm track once we get through this cold spell early next week and look towards next weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Mike Caplan's 7 Day has -5F high both Mon/Tue and a -19F Tuesday morning low! This brutal cold wave is going to break records. It may not get above 0 till Thursday morning! EURO disagrees. Raises the temp to 16-20° in NE IL on Wednesday. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 EURO disagrees. Raises the temp to 16-20° in NE IL on Wednesday.Yeah, I think highs will likely get above zero on Wednesday. But, Wednesday morning will still be brutal with temps in the negative double digits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 EURO disagrees. Raises the temp to 16-20° in NE IL on Wednesday.Euro was also showing 37 degrees for Sunday which isn't gonna happen its been off all winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Def could see temps reaching double digits wed but 20 may be on the high side. But all depends on how much snowcover we have Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 On top of that GFS continues to hint major overunning event day 7-8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaHawkeyes Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 what do you mean by major overrunning event? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 what do you mean by major overrunning event? Warm air advection creating a wintry mix or snow event. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaHawkeyes Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Ok thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 High for today is already busted wide open. 28° currently. Forecasted high was about 17°. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Down to 11 here after reaching 29 late last night. Tomorrow is a decent day temperature wise, but sure won't seem like it with wind and blowing snow! Just looked at the NAM temps, it's not quite as cold Monday morning, but it's FREAKIN cold on Tuesday morning!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just a guess but I am guessing the nam is a little slow with moving in the cold air. Its crazy cold Tuesday morning though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just a guess but I am guessing the nam is a little slow with moving in the cold air. Its crazy cold Tuesday morning thoughOr is just underdoing the cold air, which is has done quite a bit this year. But kind of hard to say that with the temps it's showing Tuesday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Srefs are much colder Monday morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Next Thursday looks very interesting around these parts. Could lay down a decent amount of snow. Saturday looks interesting as well. Looks like we start getting into an active pattern and more moisture to work with. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 +1 Tony, if those 2 snow events transpire next week, ORD will be breaking January all time snow records. Just need it to come in a bit quicker on Saturday. Here is the qpf through the end of the month. You can tack on an additional .20-.30 qpf on Sunday to these totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z Euro looking very good over the next 10 days.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 **all 3 medium/long models have lost next weeks storm potential. nam modelholding onto sw energy but still a little bit to soon to see what it does with it. edit: source rapid wx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 **all 3 medium/long models have lost next weeks storm potential. nam modelholding onto sw energy but still a little bit to soon to see what it does with it. edit: source rapid wx not true. models are showing snow potential late next week and weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 thanks for the good news james1976 rapidwx has lied to people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 With these extremely cold temps coming in tomorrow night, is there a possibility we will be under a Wind Chill Warning for 57 hours!? Seems crazy to think about! That prediction was made based on a WCW from 12:00 a.m. Sunday to 9:00 a.m. Wednesday. Also, does anyone know if the temps will actually hit 14 on Wednesday? Seems a little far fetched with a predicted low of -15 Tuesday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 The air mass that came in today was not forecasted correctly. It is warmer outside than forecast. Currently 13°, instead of near 6° in the forecast. A thin layer of ice over the snow is preventing any blowing and drifting today. Good road conditions overall. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 The air mass that came in today was not forecasted correctly. It is warmer outside than forecast. Currently 13°, instead of near 6° in the forecast. A thin layer of ice over the snow is preventing any blowing and drifting today. Good road conditions overall.And it was colder here than expected. Got up to 9 degrees today and there was lots of blowing and drifting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 And it was colder here than expected. Got up to 9 degrees today and there was lots of blowing and drifting. Well I guess that's where the core of the cold air dome went then. haha. Actually the sun is getting to the point now, that all the fresh snow that fell over night has melted off the roofs. Thinking tomorrow might be near freezing like some of the models said earlier. EURO says -4° or so tonight, before warming, but I think more like +5° with these winds. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blugga Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like the end is near....http://s24.postimg.org/sriqxr8np/extr.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like the end is near.... Wish I could hibernate inside until Thursday! haha Not sure if the EURO is out to lunch, but it shows a warm slug of air late Thursday. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 If this happens then bring out the shorts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 I bet a lot of the snow weenies out in NE are going to finally wake up after this run! It was a matter of time before we got a powerhouse CO LOW to eject out of the Rockies and hammer the Plains on east in the GL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 I bet a lot of the snow weenies out in NE are going to finally wake up after this run! It was a matter of time before we got a powerhouse CO LOW to eject out of the Rockies and hammer the Plains on east in the GL. Love those west to east storms! Yeah I'm going to move that to this thread actually. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Could we just frame this please??? 2 FEET of snow in the Midwest/GL Region..Epic if this continues! Those folks in Omaha won't have a lot of complaining if this transpires. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 looking good tom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Could we just frame this please??? 2 FEET of snow in the Midwest/GL Region..Epic if this continues! Those folks in Omaha won't have a lot of complaining if this transpires. Very linear and constantly focused near the 41st-42nd latitude lines. Gradient. Let's make it a 80"+ winter! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Very linear and constantly focused near the 41st-42nd latitude lines. Gradient. Let's make it a 80"+ winter! Very linear and constantly focused near the 41st-42nd latitude lines. Gradient. Let's make it a 80"+ winter! We possibly could be looking at one of the coldest and breaking breaking seasonable snowfall! Still have all of Feb and even March and who knows maybe some April surprises! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 We possibly could be looking at one of the coldest and breaking breaking seasonable snowfall! Still have all of Feb and even March and who knows maybe some April surprises! It's going to have to stay a little warmer to get the best snows, but yeah definitely looking like the harshest winter in a few decades. Cold winter sunset tonight - This winter I am ahead of the 2007-2008 winter so far (really jumped up after the February 5-6th storm). Only 36.3" to date then. Not ahead of 2008-2009 yet though. There was 56.0" through the 25th of January. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Could we just frame this please??? 2 FEET of snow in the Midwest/GL Region..Epic if this continues! Those folks in Omaha won't have a lot of complaining if this transpires. I still have one of last year's epic mid February GFS runs as my screensaver. Doesn't look far off from this one haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looking for that west to east storm track, maybe delayed a couple days. A few indices indicating the model may have the right idea with the west-east storm track, but they want the storm to hit in February, specifically February 1-5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Latest gfs still has the widespread "bowling ball" type system for Friday night into Saturday. Widespread 4-8", the entire state of Iowa showing 4+ that would be sweet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Right now it's looking like the heaviest snow will be in the Plains. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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