Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 This should give Jim a nice moral quandary. Well done!Your paranoia seems to worsen exponentially every year. You've been making loads of erroneous assumptions about me recently, and it's becoming quite irritating. To start, I didn't even quote Jim, and I've provided a large quantity of research on the QBO/ENSO relationship over the last year or two. Flatiron has also expanded on some of the research I've presented, and he's generally better than me at explaining this stuff in a simplistic, straightforward manner, so you cannot claim to be unaware of these discussions, or confused as to their content. You're a fairly smart dude. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Just to highlight recent examples of this relationship, here's all 21st century -ENSO winters, sorted by QBO phase: -ENSO/-QBO: 1999/00, 2001/02, 2005/06, 2007/08, 2011/12. -ENSO/+QBO: 2008/09, 2010/11, 2013/14, 2016/17. Notice anything? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Just to highlight recent examples of this relationship, here's all 21st century -ENSO winters, sorted by QBO phase: -ENSO/-QBO: 1999/00, 2001/02, 2005/06, 2007/08, 2011/12. -ENSO/+QBO: 2008/09, 2010/11, 2013/14, 2016/17. Notice anything? What was 2006/07 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 What was 2006/07That was a Niño/+QBO during a solar minimum, so largely irrelevant to the comparison involving -ENSO/Niña years. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 This should give Jim a nice moral quandary. Well done!Let's tone the number of posts like this down a notch please. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 That was a Niño/+QBO during a solar minimum, so largely irrelevant to the comparison involving -ENSO/Niña years.I was mostly just curious what the QBO was. One of the more worthwhile ninos around here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I was mostly just curious what the QBO was. One of the more worthwhile ninos around here.Yeah, that was kind of a weird year. I haven't done as much research on the QBO factor w/ regards to +ENSO, but will try to run a quick analysis on ESRL tonight or tomorrow. I suspect you'd generally perform better under the -QBO, but could envision timing/maturity factoring into z-cell behavior more than the sign as a whole. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Let's tone the number of posts like this down a notch please.Has been a theme for awhile, unfortunately. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Has been a theme for awhile, unfortunately.I could go a hundred years without ever living through a 2008-09 winter here in eastern Oklahoma. We don't really make the research list on the ice storm of 2009 very often but I personally measured 2.75 inches of ice accumulations in late January that year. I don't ever want to see another 2008-09 for as long as I live. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Let's tone the number of posts like this down a notch please.Fair enough. Just some mild sarcasm. Hopefully the same applies to others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Fair enough. Just some mild sarcasm. Hopefully the same applies to others.You know it does because you see me posting similar messages to other people and you like them sometimes. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 3.4 and 4 have seen some slight cooling over the past few days. Looks like we might be seeing the post Nino drop off of the global ssta Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Shunnnn http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 7 day change... PDO is falling again and more warming than cooling in the ENSO regions. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 I don't think it matters much at this point. Pretty decent agreement that we're going to stay in a very weak/neutral state for some time. Not much of an ENSO signal... need to look elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 It does look like the Nina is about to die. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2016 Report Share Posted December 4, 2016 It does look like the Nina is about to die.It's definitely peaked SSTA wise, given the oceanic KW that's now propagating eastward (response to the niñoi-sh intraseasonal forcing last month), however I think the atmosphere will likely retain the weak, low frequency Niña background state into/through February, at least. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 26, 2016 Report Share Posted December 26, 2016 Any new thoughts on ENSO for 2017-18? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 26, 2016 Report Share Posted December 26, 2016 Any new thoughts on ENSO for 2017-18?ENSO neutral. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2016 Did anyone notice the -640 SOI reading the other day? It really messed up the 30 day and 90 day SOI averages. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 27, 2016 Report Share Posted December 27, 2016 Dumb question but have we officially recorded a Niña yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 1, 2017 Report Share Posted January 1, 2017 I guess no one knows yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 2, 2017 Report Share Posted January 2, 2017 I guess no one knows yet?I believe the OND and NDJ trimonthlies would both have to come in -0.5 or below. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 2, 2017 Report Share Posted January 2, 2017 I believe the OND and NDJ trimonthlies would both have to come in -0.5 or below.Thank you. Not looking like an official Niña should be recorded for this event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 7, 2017 Report Share Posted January 7, 2017 El Niño starting to look somewhat more plausible next winter, assuming the atmosphere breaks from the (weak) Niña circulation. One big MJO/WWB event might be all it takes for a regime change. Looking at the TAO data, the Pacific subsurface is primed for a Niño, classic loading pattern. If atmosphere decides to go that way, it'd be an easy flip. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2017 Report Share Posted January 7, 2017 El Niño starting to look somewhat more plausible next winter, assuming the atmosphere breaks from the (weak) Niña circulation. One big MJO/WWB event might be all it takes for a regime change. Looking at the TAO data, the Pacific subsurface is primed for a Niño, classic loading pattern. If atmosphere decides to go that way, it'd be an easy flip. Multi-year Nina... to neutral and then Nino. Nature is full of surprises. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 7, 2017 Report Share Posted January 7, 2017 El Niño starting to look somewhat more plausible next winter, assuming the atmosphere breaks from the (weak) Niña circulation. One big MJO/WWB event might be all it takes for a regime change. Looking at the TAO data, the Pacific subsurface is primed for a Niño, classic loading pattern. If atmosphere decides to go that way, it'd be an easy flip.Nice to hear. This couple month break from years of torching has been pure hell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2017 Report Share Posted January 7, 2017 Nice to hear. This couple month break from years of torching has been pure hell.It's been like six weeks. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 8, 2017 Report Share Posted January 8, 2017 It's been like six weeks.July and September were below average too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 8, 2017 Report Share Posted January 8, 2017 Multi-year Nina... to neutral and then Nino. Nature is full of surprises.I'm still hedging neutral, but I think a Niño is more likely than a Niña if anything. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2017 Report Share Posted January 8, 2017 July and September were below average too!True. We're due for some persistent warmth! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 8, 2017 Report Share Posted January 8, 2017 El Niño starting to look somewhat more plausible next winter, assuming the atmosphere breaks from the (weak) Niña circulation. One big MJO/WWB event might be all it takes for a regime change. Looking at the TAO data, the Pacific subsurface is primed for a Niño, classic loading pattern. If atmosphere decides to go that way, it'd be an easy flip.I'm personally leaning warm neutral but you know way way more about all of the variables in play than I do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 I'm going positive neutral and the strong Nina in 18-19 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2017 I am a bit worried after looking at the ECMWF Nino plumes. A lot of pretty warm members there. On the other hand a Nino of any strength is very unlikely so soon after a very strong multi year El Nino. At this point I suppose warm neutral would be the way to go. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2017 Report Share Posted January 17, 2017 I am a bit worried after looking at the ECMWF Nino plumes. A lot of pretty warm members there. On the other hand a Nino of any strength is very unlikely so soon after a very strong multi year El Nino. At this point I suppose warm neutral would be the way to go. It is taking me some time to adjust to this new reality. I was convinced a multi-year strong Nina was likely. Now we might end up with no Nina at all. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted January 17, 2017 Report Share Posted January 17, 2017 I am a bit worried after looking at the ECMWF Nino plumes. A lot of pretty warm members there. On the other hand a Nino of any strength is very unlikely so soon after a very strong multi year El Nino. At this point I suppose warm neutral would be the way to go. It works out perfectly for California Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2017 Report Share Posted January 17, 2017 It is taking me some time to adjust to this new reality. I was convinced a multi-year strong Nina was likely. Now we might end up with no Nina at all.We're in a La Niña now. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 We're in a La Niña now. Not really... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 And warming across the ENSO regions over the last week... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 19, 2017 Report Share Posted January 19, 2017 Those warm SSTAs are still biased between 120E and the dateline. If the warm season convection sets up there, with the climatological subsidence to the east, then that's another troughy summer in the west. Of course, there's a chance the background state reshuffles completely following the potential SSW. Something similar happened in 2013. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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