Jesse Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 I don't know, Jesse the persistence of this current pattern is troubling/ puzzling.If you want to be troubled/puzzled by it that’s your call I suppose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Yeah, 1989 is included in those 7 years. Yet again though, it wasn’t a Niña in December. Not a Nina, but negative neutral. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Not a Nina, but negative neutral. I agree to agree! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Warm off-equator EPAC waters in a Niña = expanded Hadley Cell ~ 100W-130W. Didn't you say earlier this year that the Hadley Cell was contracting? Did it expand again after that time period as La Nina developed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 What's up? La Nina should not be dry/ warm for the PacificNW. It's not warm at the surface. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Socal has hardly had any rain since October 1 (downtown Los Angeles has recorded a paltry 0.11" since October 1). I know La Nina can be drier than normal for Socal, but Socal often gets rain in the fall during La Nina years, especially in November and December, even if the seasonal total winds up being below average. This utter dryness in the region along with all the large brush fires is getting to the point of being ridiculous! Something really weird is going on in the big picture as of late. I'm betting you guys will have insane rainfall when the cold sets in here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Didn't you say earlier this year that the Hadley Cell was contracting? Did it expand again after that time period as La Nina developed?It’s been contracting overall since 2014, but there’s multimonth variability too. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 This is sad @ZLabe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 This is sad @ZLabeThat’s a bit misleading..certainly much of that warmth will be wiped out by the cold shot next week. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 That’s a bit misleading..certainly much of that warmth will be wiped out by the cold shot next week. "much of that warmth will be wiped out by the cold shot next week" - Not down here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 This is sad @ZLabeI don't think it has been warmer than normal in Eastern Washington at all, thanks largely to the inversion, where a lot of places did not get above freezing for a couple of weeks. Where do they get those temps at? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 I don't think it has been warmer than normal in Eastern Washington at all, thanks largely to the inversion, where a lot of places did not get above freezing for a couple of weeks. Where do they get those temps at? https://twitter.com/ZLabe?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 https://twitter.com/ZLabe?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5EauthorI think the difference might be the morning lows during the inversion were not that low, and that counts too. I checked Spokane NWS, and highs overall look to be close to average, a lot below average, though not by much, and a few days well above normal. But lows averaging above normal due to the inversion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted December 24, 2017 Report Share Posted December 24, 2017 A warm autumn in a warm year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted December 27, 2017 Report Share Posted December 27, 2017 Scientists call it global warming. Do you expect cold during a warm climate? It's like pounding a square peg into a round hole and you just smash up the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted December 27, 2017 Report Share Posted December 27, 2017 It's not warm at the surface.I thought we were under an El Nino this year. What's this about a La Nina? The pattern sure doesn't reflect that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 27, 2017 Report Share Posted December 27, 2017 Scientists call it global warming. Do you expect cold during a warm climate? It's like pounding a square peg into a round hole and you just smash up the board.Tell that to the people in the Midwest, where they are having extreme cold. Parts of the Midwest had their coldest Christmas on record. Chicago and Minneapolis both had their coldest Christmas since 1996, while Duluth, Minnesota, had its chilliest Dec. 25 since 1933.The Midwest is experiencing frigid cold today, with this morning's temperature falling to minus-8 degrees in Minneapolis and St. Paul and minus-16 in Ladysmith, Wisconsin. Duluth, Minnesota fell to minus-21 degrees with a wind chill of minus-44. None of that proves or disproves global warming, but to say there will be no cold is a stupid argument. You need to do better than that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 27, 2017 Report Share Posted December 27, 2017 I thought we were under an El Nino this year. What's this about a La Nina? The pattern sure doesn't reflect that! Obviously you know little about El Nino or La Nina. This is a classic La Nina pattern. Cold in the northern tier of states, dry for California, etc. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 27, 2017 Report Share Posted December 27, 2017 Obviously you know little about El Nino or La Nina. This is a classic La Nina pattern. Cold in the northern tier of states, dry for California, etc.Well, it’s a +NAO/+PNA version of a niña, but yeah the Walker/Hadley intensity ratios are definitely Niña-esque, along with the Indo-Pacific convection (classic Niña) Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 The La Nina of 2010/11 provided abundant rainfall for California @climatecentral Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted December 29, 2017 Report Share Posted December 29, 2017 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 29, 2017 Report Share Posted December 29, 2017 The La Nina of 2010/11 provided abundant rainfall for California @climatecentralThat was a strong solar min/+QBO Niña, so that’s not surprising. This is a weak pre-solar min/-QBO Niña. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 That was a strong solar min/+QBO Niña, so that’s not surprising. This is a weak pre-solar min/-QBO Niña. Wasn't 2016-17 a weak +QBO Nina as well? We got some decent rains last year in Socal with my area in Orange getting over 19". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 30, 2017 Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Wasn't 2016-17 a weak +QBO Nina as well? We got some decent rains last year in Socal with my area in Orange getting over 19".Yeah, it was +QBO. The Niña/+QBO combo is generally better for the west (all around) than Niña/-QBO. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Latest SSTsENSO Alert System Status: La Niña AdvisoryLa Niña conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring.* We now have Positive subsurface anomalies expanding and intensifying. The area of any subsurface cooling from 160 W to the west coast is dwindling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Quite an expansive cold pool right now. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Quite an expansive cold pool right now. Definitely. Looks quite healthy and has expanded from say 2 months ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2018 Report Share Posted January 5, 2018 Impressive seeing the La Nina strengthen as we progress into the new year. ENSO region 1+2 really tanking now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 Illustrates the sustained heat over the Pacific Southwest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Okay, so on the ENSO front, I’m seeing signs of some legitimate low frequency shifts towards a more basin wide cell network, perhaps starting soon, though there is one wrinkle in the fold. So, first, the recent WHEM MJO pulse following the previous warm pool event produced a modest downwelling OKW that’s coupled to the atmosphere (revealed on low pass). This should open the WPAC duct to some extent, which could focus trades farther westward with time if the inertia of the coupled downwelling wave begins warms the EPAC enough to balance the zonal gradient and elongate the Walker Cell. However, it will be countered by the upcoming MJO return pass through the Indo-Pacific domain, which will attempt to re-tighten the Walker Cell/dampen the KW. The depth of this MJO event will determine whether we do transition into a more basin wide event, or whether we return to the more “classic” east based style event. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Gulp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Gulp I'll take the CMC please. Looks like a rough agreement that the East will be milder than normal and a decent chance it will be cooler than normal in the NW. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 ENSO/Walker Cell uplift system migrating southwestward in response to the MJO: Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Epic battle upcoming here. The downwelling OKW initiated by the late December WWB/MJO is now fighting the current MJO/trade wind burst..oceanic inertia vs atmospheric forcing..who wins? These trades are beastly, and will try to dampen the OKW as it sloshes eastward, but the OKW is quite heavy-set itself..hard to know what the outcome will be. Either way, using solar/QBO/fluid resonance analogs for the upcoming year, I think ENSO in 2018/19 will probably be neutral or very weak. The third year following super Niños tends to be transitional on the large scale, with decadal climate shifts becoming apparent in the vast majority of cases. Since 1950, without considering the solar cycle, the third year, post-super niño analogs are: 1960/61: Neutral (started AMO flip). 1975/76: Strong Niña (started the Great Pacific Climate Shift/+PDO). 1985/86 Neutral (started the incredible +ENSO and move into +AMO). 2000/01: Niña (ended the stretch of 5 niñas in 6yrs and started the stretch of anemic ENSO/super +AMO. I guess if you want to look st 2009/10, 3yrs afterwards was actually 2012/13, which marked the beginning of another Pacific climate shift to +PNA/+PDO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Epic battle upcoming here. The downwelling OKW initiated by the late December WWB/MJO is now fighting the current MJO/trade wind burst..oceanic inertia vs atmospheric forcing..who wins? These trades are beastly, and will try to dampen the OKW as it sloshes eastward, but the OKW is quite heavy-set itself..hard to know what the outcome will be. Either way, using solar/QBO/fluid resonance analogs for the upcoming year, I think ENSO in 2018/19 will probably be neutral or very weak. The third year following super Niños tends to be transitional on the large scale, with decadal climate shifts becoming apparent in the vast majority of cases. Since 1950, without considering the solar cycle, the third year, post-super niño analogs are: 1960/61: Neutral (started AMO flip). 1975/76: Strong Niña (started the Great Pacific Climate Shift/+PDO). 1985/86 Neutral (started the incredible +ENSO and move into +AMO). 2000/01: Niña (ended the stretch of 5 niñas in 6yrs and started the stretch of anemic ENSO/super +AMO. I guess if you want to look st 2009/10, 3yrs afterwards was actually 2012/13, which marked the beginning of another Pacific climate shift to +PNA/+PDO. When do you think the AMO will flip negative again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 When do you think the AMO will flip negative again?I suspect it will happen sometime in the mid/late 2020s assuming my climate prediction is correct. Much of the AMO variability we see is driven by low frequency variability in the AMOC and subpolar gyre circulation, and those oceanic circulations are driven mostly by low frequency variability in the NAO, and also ENSO/tropical forcing(s) through other conduits. If/when we observe a more prolonged downturn in the boreal winter NAO, the NATL/AMO deep water current system will still take awhile to respond..about a decade. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 I suspect it will happen sometime in the mid/late 2020s assuming my climate prediction is correct. Much of the AMO variability we see is driven by low frequency variability in the AMOC and subpolar gyre circulation, and those oceanic circulations are driven mostly by low frequency variability in the NAO, and also ENSO/tropical forcing(s) through other conduits. If/when we observe a more prolonged downturn in the boreal winter NAO, the NATL/AMO deep water current system will still take awhile to respond..about a decade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 The REALLY good stuff is always about a decade down the road with Phil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2018 Report Share Posted January 12, 2018 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.