October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

May end up with a few scattered 30s this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

You have to love the mean placement of the 500mb anomaly centers over the past 4 months.  WA is the only place in the US that has had below normal 500mb heights.  In the winter this would be good for us.

 

So it will probably move now.   Why would it sit over WA state permanently?   

[MossMan]

Geez, I miss a few days and the discussion has gone from wind storm mania to the paradox of nothing.

Yep...boring weather will do that apparently.

[Front Ranger]

Never?

 

There was the time you had me totally convinced global warming was over following the 1997-98 nino. I was pretty dogged then too.

 

Misrepresentation. Totally not cool.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty ugly, splitty pattern coming up. Winter preview.

[Phil]

Pretty ugly, splitty pattern coming up. Winter preview.

Need that Indonesian standing wave to propagate towards 150E ASAP. Vibes of 2005/2007 et al with the big +EPO/Pacific hose job, hence frigid air all bottled on the Eurasian side of the pole.

 

At least no signs of a rabid, O^3-eating PV/+NAM as of yet.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Pretty ugly, splitty pattern coming up. Winter preview.

Yep... an awesome setup will align about the end february to mid-march. Enjoy!

[BLI snowman]

Yep... an awesome setup will align about the end february to mid-march. Enjoy!

 

Big cold snap just to our north in mid November. 57 degree rain in Eugene, 37 in Seattle, light snow in Vancouver, BC. 

[Weather101]

Big cold snap just to our north in mid November. 57 degree rain in Eugene, 37 in Seattle, light snow in Vancouver, BC.

Sounds good!

[Phil]

Well, I don't believe in God. I do believe in other dimensions.

My interpretation of QM theory leads me to believe that we don't exist "within" dimensions, rather that we *are* dimensions. The only local reality is within the so-called "self".

 

Think of the Schrödinger's cat dilemma, except replace the cat with a human, say, me. Am I dead or alive? From your perspective, I'm in a potential state, but obviously, from my perspective, I'm in an actual state. So, do we just assume this juxtaposition is just another "normal" abnormality on a single dimensional plane, or are we looking at separate planes of reality?

[Phil]

And that's the thing. Whether you think forward or backward in time, you almost have to arrive at infinity. That's a pretty mindblowing thought as well.

Yeah, it's kinda spooky to think about eternity, because humans process information linearly (hence our creation of "time" as a constructive, relativistic conduit to our understanding of the universe, as a substitute for entropy).

 

In truth (most likely) nothing is "linear", and time (as we know it) is merely a reflection of entropy, either by our own construction, or as a real expression (debatable). Personally, I'm fascinated with circles and curves, and I believe there's a reason they're the only universal expression.

[wx_statman]

Leap of faith!

 

 

Only works in movies!

[stuffradio]

Sounds good!

The 00z EPS 45 day snowfall for YXX gives us almost 1.5 feet of snow starting Nov. 1

[wx_statman]

Yeah, it's kinda spooky to think about eternity, because humans process information linearly (hence our creation of "time" as a constructive, relativistic conduit to our understanding of the universe, as a substitute for entropy).

 

In truth (most likely) nothing is "linear", and time (as we know it) is merely a reflection of entropy, either by our own construction, or as a real expression (debatable). Personally, I'm fascinated with circles and curves, and I believe there's a reason they're the only universal expression.

 

Its all very interesting. 

[Front Ranger]

Only works in movies!

Point being, no matter what you believe, some faith is required.

[TT-SEA]

Major cooling in the eastern sections of the ENSO regions in the last 7 days... and the PDO is definitely rising.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

[wx_statman]

Point being, no matter what you believe, some faith is required.

 

That's true. Some faith is required in everything you think or do, every day of your life.  

[crf450ish]

Major cooling in the eastern sections of the ENSO regions in the last 7 days... and the PDO is definitely rising.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

Is a +PDO bad for us? I can't remember. 

[ShawniganLake]

The 00z EPS 45 day snowfall for YXX gives us almost 1.5 feet of snow starting Nov. 1

I am going to assume this is probably normal Nov-Mar. Even if it has the pattern progression correct, the resolution is probably garbage at that range.

[Front Ranger]

Is a +PDO bad for us? I can't remember. 

 

Generally, a persistent +PDO pattern is not conducive to cold weather in the PNW. Especially Oct-Apr. See the past couple years.

[Guest happ]

Generally, a persistent +PDO pattern is not conducive to cold weather in the PNW. Especially Oct-Apr. See the past couple years.

 

The +PDO Is a dry pattern for California, right?

[Dan the Weatherman]

The +PDO Is a dry pattern for California, right?

 

+PDO has been associated with rainier winters in CA, especially the southern half of the state, but of course not every +PDO winter is wet. The vast majority of the late 1970's to the late 1990's was +PDO. There is often an increase in El Nino years during the +PDO phase, at least more recently. I am not quite sure how wet or dry +PDO is for the PNW, though.

[MossMan]

Welp...saw the sun for about a half hour late this morning, cloud deck has definitely gotten lower now. I really miss the excitement of last week. I want a 2006-07 repeat, that was such an action packed season!!!

[TT-SEA]

Welp...saw the sun for about a half hour late this morning, cloud deck has definitely gotten lower now. I really miss the excitement of last week. I want a 2006-07 repeat, that was such an action packed season!!!

 

Looks much quieter for the next couple weeks.   Not dry by any means... but drier.   

 

A break will be nice.   Maybe salvage a little nice weather in October.    10 inches of rain in the last week here... that is enough 'excitement'.   

 

The only excitement I am looking forward to is snow and cold! 

[Deweydog]

Major cooling in the eastern sections of the ENSO regions in the last 7 days... and the PDO is definitely rising.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

#bringbacktheblob!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Sounds good!

selfish bastard!  

[luvssnow_spokane]

#bringbacktheblob!

#blueblob2017

[MossMan]

Looks much quieter for the next couple weeks. Not dry by any means... but drier.

 

A break will be nice. Maybe salvage a little nice weather in October. 10 inches of rain in the last week here... that is enough 'excitement'.

 

The only excitement I am looking forward to is snow and cold!

I want it all! Wind, rain, snow, T-Storms, thundersnow, Arctic blasts, blowtorches...I want it all! I'm frothing at the mouth!!! I get the same way in March about wanting sun and warmth...I just can't wait!! Think I've had too much caffeine today.

[TT-SEA]

I want it all! Wind, rain, snow, T-Storms, thundersnow, Arctic blasts, blowtorches...I want it all! I'm frothing at the mouth!!! I get the same way in March about wanting sun and warmth...I just can't wait!! Think I've had too much caffeine today.

 

I think so.  

[Sometimesdylan]

Please die Mr Blob.

[Front Ranger]

Somehow my phone switched from mobile version to desktop and I can't find where you go to switch it back. I have a Droid. Any help would be appreciated.

[MossMan]

Somehow my phone switched from mobile version to desktop and I can't find where you go to switch it back. I have a Droid. Any help would be appreciated.

It's usually at the far bottom left...at least on my iPhone. Small print

[Weather101]

Somehow my phone switched from mobile version to desktop and I can't find where you go to switch it back. I have a Droid. Any help would be appreciated.

Should be at the very bottom of the page in the corner " use mobile version"

[chinook]

Did NWS-PDX issue any notifications regarding the radar coming back in service? 

[Phil]

For those into folklore stuff, we just found a wooly bear caterpillar on our garage without any stripe. Ice age?!?!

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/99FE6664-93B9-4DAB-87A1-C381B986D111_zpsurpsbiag.jpg

[Front Ranger]

Should be at the very bottom of the page in the corner " use mobile version"

Got it, thanks.

[BLI snowman]

Got it, thanks.

Can confirm, works with our phone.

[snow_wizard]

Need that Indonesian standing wave to propagate towards 150E ASAP. Vibes of 2005/2007 et al with the big +EPO/Pacific hose job, hence frigid air all bottled on the Eurasian side of the pole.

 

At least no signs of a rabid, O^3-eating PV/+NAM as of yet.

 

I think the MJO returning to the MC would be a good thing for us.  The GFS is forecasting a pretty strong venture into Octant 8.  That is probably the root of the sad looking model runs lately.  As I mentioned many times though crappy Novembers are quite normal before our best winters here.

[snow_wizard]

Generally, a persistent +PDO pattern is not conducive to cold weather in the PNW. Especially Oct-Apr. See the past couple years.

 

I think it was positive during many of the 1980s Arctic blasts though.  The PDO doesn't look all that bad right now anyway.

[Phil]

I think the MJO returning to the MC would be a good thing for us. The GFS is forecasting a pretty strong venture into Octant 8. That is probably the root of the sad looking model runs lately. As I mentioned many times though crappy Novembers are quite normal before our best winters here.

What is your definition of "crappy"? As I'm sure you recall, 2010/11 featured a November blast and went on to deliver another one in February, and flirted with something special in January.