HighlandExperience Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 Blame china and their non existent air quality laws....1.3 billion people to provide power for and they'll do it without any air scrubbers on their boiler exhaust systems etc....They are only doing what we did. But yes it is problematic. Our only hope is solar forces now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 or a nuclear winter... 1 Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 Not sure. I feel like just a shell of a human being.What phone do you have? Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 The newest editions of the 12z models are in. The EURO is much more aggressive with a Split Flow/Cut-Off Low pattern than both the GFS and GEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 This is nonsense. First of all, we've been pumping out greenhouse gases since the 19th century. And second, nobody in the scientific community denies the existence of natural climate change. That would be absurd. The issue is with GHG's, especially CO2, reflecting longwave radiation back towards the planet and adding an unnatural amount of warming to the system, regardless of background state.This is both wrong and a misinterpretation of my post regarding attribution ratios. It's also a mischaracterization of the workings of the greenhouse effect itself. 1) Simple radiative transfer physics dictate the radiative forcing per doubling of CO^2 is ~ 3.7W/m^2 which is analogous to ~1.2C of surface warming. Up until 1950, the CO^2 content increased by less than 40ppm. So given the relative content fractal at the time, that's around 0.57W/m^2, or a statistically insignificant amount of surface warming. 2) I never said scientists denied natural climate change. How exactly you could derive that from my post is a mystery to me. I stated, clearly and concisely, that many scientists deny significant natural climate change (within the resolution in question), despite evidence to the contrary throughout the proxy records. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 Also, the mechanism through which CO^2 warms the planetary temperature isn't via a direct backradiative conduit, as was suggested. The whole "reflecting radiation back to earth" thing is nothing more than a gross oversimplification. What happens is the molecule (tri-atomic) absorbs IR within particular frequencies not fully saturated within the AW. Upon absorption, the molecule enters an excited state and transfers some of this kinetic energy to non-homogeneously emitting bi-atomic N^2/O^2 molecules in the upper troposphere, where it can be thermalized directly and diffused through the column given the molecular collisional frequency in that domain is higher than CO^2's emissive frequency. This process raises the emissive-equilibrium altitude across the globe (where radiative exchange ratios are analogous to the planetary greybody temperature derived via the Stefan-Boltzmann equations). In reality, the IR portion in reference within the AW is saturated no more than 2 meters off the ground. The changes to radiative balance are rooted aloft, not at the surface. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 All of the ensemble suites (EPS, GEFS, CMC, etc) made a jump towards a high octane +EPO type pattern in the medium/long range, with a weaker -NAM component. End result is a wetter/warmer week 2 locally (and nationally). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 What phone do you have? Motorola Moto X. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 All of the ensemble suites (EPS, GEFS, CMC, etc) made a jump towards a high octane +EPO type pattern in the medium/long range, with a weaker -NAM component. End result is a wetter/warmer week 2 locally (and nationally). Good news... we certainly need the rain here. Its tinder dry out there! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 Good news... we certainly need the rain here. Its tinder dry out there! I am looking forward to sunny skies and highs 70-75 for the next several days out in Tulsa. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 I am looking forward to sunny skies and highs 70-75 for the next several days out in Tulsa. So jealous. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 Amazingly mankind survived without them for the first one million years of walking the Earth.Christianity hasn't been a discussion for a long time on here but i remembered you being a believer in Christ. Do you believe in Old Earth or New Earth? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 All of the ensemble suites (EPS, GEFS, CMC, etc) made a jump towards a high octane +EPO type pattern in the medium/long range, with a weaker -NAM component. End result is a wetter/warmer week 2 locally (and nationally). Locally as in PNW or Maryland? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 Locally as in PNW or Maryland?Referring to the PNW. My stuff is in the eastern forum. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 I am looking forward to sunny skies and highs 70-75 for the next several days out in Tulsa.It's not that enjoyable when you live down here. Trust me. I'm so very ready for winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 Christianity hasn't been a discussion for a long time on here but i remembered you being a believer in Christ. Do you believe in Old Earth or New Earth?Let's not start a religious conversation in here... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 Let's not start a religious conversation in here...It was a harmless question 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 It was a harmless questionJesus is dead, just like George Washington and Osama Bin Laden. And the earth has been around four and a half billion years, give or take. Good we got all that straight before winter! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 58 at 4pm. I think they're gonna do it!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 It's not that enjoyable when you live down here. Trust me. I'm so very ready for winter. Where in Oklahoma are you from? I saw it was what about 90 on Saturday? The winter of 2009-10 was really nice. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 52/41 here today with a paltry 0.19" of rain. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 *yawn* I need some Gorton the fisherman entertainment... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 *yawn* I need some Gorton the fisherman entertainment...Yes!! Beyond boring right now. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 How is this for exciting?!?!?!?! I think my chest hair has been growing in thicker for the last few weeks. Snowy winter? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 How is this for exciting?!?!?!?! I think my chest hair has been growing in thicker for the last few weeks. Snowy winter?It's a lock! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 Christianity hasn't been a discussion for a long time on here but i remembered you being a believer in Christ. Do you believe in Old Earth or New Earth? You can be a Christian and also believe in an old Earth. I've seen too many things just in the geology around Liberty alone to not believe the Earth is very old. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 Let's not start a religious conversation in here... I hardly think mentioning it one time in passing is any big deal. Political correctness is totally out of control these days. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 Yes!! Beyond boring right now. Not totally. We just went through one of the most active periods ever recorded in the first half of October. Legitimate high winds in many places, ridiculous amounts of rain, a couple of tornados, and a lot of lightning in some parts of Western WA last Friday. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 At least at the present time the CFS is jumping all over a really cold February for us. It's showing a progression very much like 1989. January is showing up as being chilly with a few runs being really cold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 Where in Oklahoma are you from? I saw it was what about 90 on Saturday? The winter of 2009-10 was really nice.I live in Adair county. Right on the state line. About 110 east of Tulsa. 2009-10 and 10-11 were pretty epic down here. I enjoy lurking and reading the conversation in your region here. Yeah, it's been a hot stretch here. Close to 1963 down here. Hoping for a big flip soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 You don't have a cellphone? Of course I do. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 Let's not start a religious conversation in here... Pretty incredible how sensitive people can be and how you have to walk on eggshells most of the time these days... 1 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 Pretty incredible how sensitive people can be and how you have to walk on eggshells most of the time these days...I dont walk on eggshells. I just keep my opinions to myself. Sure shot way to avoid any drama. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 I dont walk on eggshells. I just keep my opinions to myself. Sure shot way to avoid any drama.Sounds a little Orwellian, whatever, just sayin'... 1 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 At least at the present time the CFS is jumping all over a really cold February for us. It's showing a progression very much like 1989. January is showing up as being chilly with a few runs being really cold.I am curious... Since when has the CFS "ever" been a reliable model? You are looking at stuff in February???!! lala-land (fantasy) .... In the last 6 years I have never seen it even come close to accurately verifying anything within 4 weeks, let alone 2 or 3 months. So, just curious why you would put any stock in it? 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 CFS is a joke. It's almost as bad as the old farmers you know what if not as bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 I live in Adair county. Right on the state line. About 110 east of Tulsa. 2009-10 and 10-11 were pretty epic down here. I enjoy lurking and reading the conversation in your region here. Yeah, it's been a hot stretch here. Close to 1963 down here. Hoping for a big flip soon. Nice. I was living in Bartlesville north of Tulsa during the winter of 2009-10. It was pretty incredible with the Christmas eve blizzard and then bookended by a major snow event in late March. Early January was very cold too. I remember a couple storms in February that went mainly south and east so your area probably did well. Bville hit -28 the following winter and they had some major storms, but I was back in Oregon then. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 CFS is obviously the gold standard. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 Sounds a little Orwellian, whatever, just sayin'...Be that as it may, I have found that openly giving my opinion has frequently led to negative consequences. The only reason I am discussing it here, with you, on this forum, is simply because this place has proven to me that the folks on here maintain a generally higher IQ than the norm. Quite intriguing, actually, to be able to merely read ideas and thoughts from intellectual individuals. Yeah, I have been surrounded by idiots most of my life, hence the reason why I moved out to middle of B.F.E. ...... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 I am curious... Since when has the CFS "ever" been a reliable model? You are looking at stuff in February???!! lala-land (fantasy) .... In the last 6 years I have never seen it even come close to accurately verifying anything within 4 weeks, let alone 2 or 3 months. So, just curious why you would put any stock in it? There are many ways to use the CFS. They run it 4 times a day and then take a long running average of all the runs. All I can say is I've never seen it spit out the kind of monthly numbers that it has been lately on some of the individual runs. Many incredible runs for both Jan and Feb in recent weeks. It shows Nov and Dec being mild which kind of seems like 1988. In short it can be useful, but has to be used cautiously. Obviously I'm not saying it will verify but I think extreme solutions are worth mentioning if they are coming up frequently. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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