October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

It was a major regional Arctic event, just really late in the season. Brief, though. Single digits at OLM, c'mon.

I was born in the 80s and I remember March 89. It was very memorable for a young child with more than a foot of snow on the ground. If I recall from memory we had snow on the ground for well over a week. It was an impressive event for the Seattle area.

 

Especially in the suburbs and on the hills. I don't have the stats on hand but I'm pretty sure some spots has over 15 inches in the east side.

 

It be nice to see something like that earlier in the season!!

[Front Ranger]

No, it really isn't. To discuss regional cold waves you need a regional perspective.

It's limited to one good station, but objective. Do a full comparative analysis for every station in the region if you're so inclined. I don't have the time.

 

And you know I didn't cherry pick the station. I'm very consistent with OLM.

[Front Ranger]

Nine consecutive highs of 37 or lower at (regional barometer) OLM doesn't seem all that short-lived, either.

If we're looking at highs in that range, Jan 2013 had a pretty impressive streak some places.

 

But statman already said duration doesn't matter, so...

[Front Ranger]

The frequency of arctic intrusions hasn't changed recently as much as the intensity. Older (even 1980s) events were just more impressive at their best. Doesn't matter whether the station is OLM or SEA. I think we've had a pretty well-established consensus on this issue by now.

There has been a little change in the intensity, but perhaps not as much as some think. It's hard to say when we haven't seen a Nov 2010, Feb 2011, or Dec 2013 upper level patten in the late December - beginning of February window. Those were all top tier blasts for the timeframe they occurred in.

[BLI snowman]

If we're looking at highs in that range, Jan 2013 had a pretty impressive streak some places.

 

But statman already said duration doesn't matter, so...

 

Those two weren't remotely comparable events, so no...

[Front Ranger]

I don't consider 29/14 at PDX and 16/1 at BLI to be "pedestrian."

For SEA to EUG, it was a fairly pedestrian January cold wave, IMO. But again, I take into account duration.

[Front Ranger]

Those two weren't remotely comparable events, so no...

The point was not to compare the events. It was that all of the sudden we're talking about highs in the mid/upper 30s in January.

[wx_statman]

It's limited to one good station, but objective. Do a full comparative analysis for every station in the region if you're so inclined. I don't have the time.

 

And you know I didn't cherry pick the station. I'm very consistent with OLM.

 

Yes. Yes you are.

[BLI snowman]

The point was not to compare the events. It was that all of the sudden you're talking about highs in the mid/upper 30s in January.

 

Highs in the mid-upper 30s is a good benchmark for a cold snap around here. The late December to early January period saw a decently lengthy cold snap in 1981-82, which included a respectable general 3-4 days of subfreezing highs.

[Phil]

With another -SOI burst upcoming, the October value should finish solidly negative. There are no "coherent" Niña winters featuring such behavior.

 

The 30 day SOI is down nearly 10pts over the last 11 days alone: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

[Phil]

Still like the idea of a resurgence of NPAC blocking during mid/late November, though it remains to be seen how much damage this intraseasonal excursion into a pseudo Niño cell does to the (already) weak Niña background state.

[snow_wizard]

Yet another soggy day with well over an inch of rain.  The monthly totals for this month are going to be ridiculous.  Probably worth noting very wet Octobers are also a good sign for winter.

[snow_wizard]

With another -SOI burst upcoming, the October value should finish solidly negative. There are no "coherent" Niña winters featuring such behavior.

 

The 30 day SOI is down nearly 10pts over the last 11 days alone: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

 

I think we're going to be fine in the long run. 

[snow_wizard]

Jan 1982 and Feb 1985 were both much shorter events than Jan 2007.

 

There's always going to be some subjectivity with these type of discussions, but note that Snow Wizard said there were "many major blasts" in the 1980s besides Dec 1983, Nov 1985, and Feb/Mar 1989. I don't think of Jan 1982 or Feb 1985 as a "major blast".

 

Feb 85 was a really solid event.  We had decent snow cover for a week where I was living at the time.  That and Jan 2007 were pretty comparable weighing temperature and snowfall.  A number of locations didn't get much snow out of the Jan 2007 event.  I was lucky on that one.

 

Nothing in recent times tops November 1985.  That month was amazing.  Much prettier than Dec 2008 overall.  Dec 1983, Nov 1985, and Feb 1989 were epic cold waves.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been out in Oklahoma the past few days. It was 85 yesterday and sunny and 70 today. Yesterday felt disgusting with the humidity, but today was amazing with a nice northerly breeze. 

[Phil]

I think we're going to be fine in the long run.

Oh yeah, I wasn't trying to suggest otherwise. I'm just noting the fact that the (low frequency) niña convective cell is inherently weak, and looks to weaken further, going forward.

 

This definitely isn't a year where I'm going to rely too much on ENSO for progressive extrapolation/analoging.

[Phil]

Lol, 1997/98 is once again the top analog on the CPC site. It's actually the #6 analog since October 7th.

[TT-SEA]

Yet another soggy day with well over an inch of rain.  The monthly totals for this month are going to be ridiculous.  Probably worth noting very wet Octobers are also a good sign for winter.

 

 

Most recent very wet October was in 2014.   

[TT-SEA]

SEA is running over 8 inches above normal for rainfall for 2016.

 

The extremely wet decade around here continues.

[Phil]

FWIW, the top CPC analogs for the month of October are 1967/68, 1983/84, 1980/81, 1966/67, 1995/96, and 1959/60, in that order.

 

If 2010/11 was included, I bet it'd be near the top.

[Timmy Supercell]

Thing is, the system state is much different now than it was in the early/mid 20th century. A lot of those older correlations probably won't hold true today, IMO.

 

For example, 2010/11 was probably your second-best winter this century (behind 2008/09), and it featured a warm October/cold November combo. Very slight tweaks to the January pattern and it'd have been a truly historic winter.

 

Not in the lowlands in western Oregon. I had maybe 2" during the arctic snap in November 2010 when I lived in the metro area (lived in Hillsboro from 2004 to late 2010). Really the highlight of that winter was the cold, not actually the snow. The exception to that winter was the cascades and east sides in many spots probably doubled their normal snowfall or at least in the neighborhood of +50%.

 

In January 2004 I had a lot more snow (was in Bethany, near Portland from 1999-2004) than 2010, 6-8" accumulations in my area. My maximum snow depth in December 2008 was 9" in Hillsboro, not a whole lot more snow than the 2004 event locally. I know some of it melted and more kept falling though, so both events had differences.

 

Personally, Jan 2004 was my most memorable of all 3 of these mentioned winters because of an actual blizzard I had one morning. Flickering lights at my apartment with 55+ mph winds and heavy snow at the same time. I've never experienced snowstorms quite like that one even here since that day. And I now live in a more snow prone area. That says a lot.

[Timmy Supercell]

Most recent very wet October was in 2014.   

 

Oct 2014 was my 4th wettest in Klamath Falls since 1940's. Not sure I would say it's really any accurate indication of what winter we will end up with. 3rd and 2nd wettest Octobers preceded generally unimpressive winters if I'm correct. (1956, 1979)

[Bryant]

Most recent very wet October was in 2014.

Which was also during the onset of the Nino

[TT-SEA]

Which was also during the onset of the Nino

 

 

And according to Phil... its been acting like a Nino recently.   

[Phil]

And according to Phil... its been acting like a Nino recently.

Just temporarily.

[TT-SEA]

Just temporarily.

 

 

Of course.

[Bryant]

Of course.

People see right through you

[TT-SEA]

People see right through you

 

I don't even know what you are talking about.

 

Basic conversation but you are constantly trying to cause problems.

 

I said 2014 was the most recent example of a very wet October... you said that was a Nino... I said that Phil has been saying its behaving like a Nino for some time now.

 

See through what?    

[Bryant]

I don't even know what you are talking about.

 

Basic conversation but you are constantly trying to cause problems.

 

I said 2014 was the most recent example of a very wet October... you said that was a Nino... I said that Phil has been saying its behaving like a Nino for some time now.

 

See through what??

You're always so innocent in your mind

[TT-SEA]

You're always so innocent in your mind

 

 

.   

 

Making conversation about the wet October.  Am I not kissing your a** enough for you?   

 

So stupid.   Reported your post and will report all of your BS so its on record.

[Bryant]

.

 

Making conversation about the wet October. Am I not kissing your a** enough for you?

 

So stupid. Reported your post and will report all of your BS so its on record.

Will do the same

[TT-SEA]

Will do the same

 

 

Good luck finding something tonight to report.      People see through you as well Bryant.     

[Front Ranger]

Feb 85 was a really solid event.  We had decent snow cover for a week where I was living at the time.  That and Jan 2007 were pretty comparable weighing temperature and snowfall.  A number of locations didn't get much snow out of the Jan 2007 event.  I was lucky on that one.

 

Nothing in recent times tops November 1985.  That month was amazing.  Much prettier than Dec 2008 overall.  Dec 1983, Nov 1985, and Feb 1989 were epic cold waves.

 

At SEA, Feb 1985 had one sub-freezing day. The coldest day was 32/19. Next coldest was 35/24.

 

In Jan 2007, SEA had three sub-freezing days. The coldest days were 29/21 and 31/19.

[TT-SEA]

Olympics and Mt. Rainier running 12-16 inches above normal for precip in the last 2 weeks... impressive.

 

[Front Ranger]

Yet another soggy day with well over an inch of rain.  The monthly totals for this month are going to be ridiculous.  Probably worth noting very wet Octobers are also a good sign for winter.

 

10 wettest non-Nino Octobers at SEA.

 

1950

1955

1956

1967

1975

1981

1985

1990

2003

2012

[MossMan]

At SEA, Feb 1985 had one sub-freezing day. The coldest day was 32/19. Next coldest was 35/24.

 

In Jan 2007, SEA had three sub-freezing days. The coldest days were 29/21 and 31/19.

Lake Goodwin froze over during the Jan 2007 event!

[TT-SEA]

10 wettest non-Nino Octobers at SEA.

 

1950

1955

1956

1967

1975

1981

1985

1990

2003

2012

 

 

This is now the 4th wettest October in history at SEA after today.

[MossMan]

This is now the 4th wettest October in history at SEA after today.

I sure remember Nov. 1985 and Dec. 1990!

[TT-SEA]

I sure remember Nov. 1985 and Dec. 1990!

 

I remember our real estate agent back in 2003 describing November of 1985 to us like it just happened.     It must have been memorable.  

[TT-SEA]

Next week is looking pretty nice.