October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

For anyone interested in playing around with polar vortex analogs: http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html#ncep_clim_stats_nh

If the upcoming strat blast verifies, it'll be the only event of that magnitude to occur this early in the year, during a +QBO. The only comparable events were in -QBOs (Nov 1996, Nov 1998, etc).

[bainbridgekid]

I agree. After the turds of the last 4 seasons, I will be happy with what we get. 

 

January 2012 was the last time I remember Seattle proper having a really good snowfall. Ever since then it has been downhill. 

Even if the correlation between November arctic blasts and bad DJF's was very strong, I would still much rather have a  nice November blast and take my chances with the rest of the Winter.

 

As it is, the last two major November blasts (2006 and 2010) were both followed by another blast later in the Winter.

 

In this climate, rooting against cold and snow in hopes it will lead to better chances later makes no sense to me.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like a +5 at SEA today... the biggest departure of the month.     

 

Looks like yet another month where SEA will finish with a warmer departure than PDX. Last time PDX was warmer was May.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like yet another month where SEA will finish with a warmer departure than PDX. Last time PDX was warmer was May.

 

 

Have you switched to comparing SEA and PDX now since OLM has been running warmer than SEA lately?  

[ShawniganLake]

Tropical tidbits added a North Pacific plot.

[Front Ranger]

Have you switched to comparing SEA and PDX now since OLM has been running warmer than SEA lately?  

 

Nah, just a note. It does make sense that OLM would finally have a warmer month than SEA, when that month is incredibly wetter than normal. Only a few days this month they've managed any radiational cooling.

[Front Ranger]

Tropical tidbits added a North Pacific plot.

IMG_0367.PNG

 

So ugly. At least CA will get some rain.

[Phil]

So ugly. At least CA will get some rain.

Yeah, playing around with flat NPAC ridging is dangerous, as I think I mentioned a few weeks ago just before this pattern developed. Very easy to get stuck in a +WPO/+PNA pattern through various constructively-sustaining feedbacks.

[Phil]

Verbatim, the 00z GFS depicts a near record-breaking +PNA to start November, which hoses all the continental air to far-away lands. Gross.

[snow_wizard]

Even if the correlation between November arctic blasts and bad DJF's was very strong, I would still much rather have a  nice November blast and take my chances with the rest of the Winter.

 

As it is, the last two major November blasts (2006 and 2010) were both followed by another blast later in the Winter.

 

In this climate, rooting against cold and snow in hopes it will lead to better chances later makes no sense to me.

 

Why do want a November cold snap that won't be a quarter of what a January event could be?  This is just crazy IMO.  Major November cold waves were extremely rare the first half of the 20th century and the winters were great.  It's obvious front loaded winters are poison for January.  I guess everyone is ok with mediocrity now.  January has FAR greater potential than any other month.

[TT-SEA]

Why do want a November cold snap that won't be a quarter of what a January event could be?  This is just crazy IMO.  Major November cold waves were extremely rare the first half of the 20th century and the winters were great.  It's obvious front loaded winters are poison for January.  I guess everyone is ok with mediocrity now.  January has FAR greater potential than any other month.

 

 

Good pep talk coach!

 

Now lets go out and win this one.   It will take 100% effort from everyone on the team... but I know we can do it.   

[Deweydog]

Hopefully my mom won't be the one to settle this November/January conundrum.

 

When my brother and I used to fight over a toy, who gets it when and for how long, she'd just take it away from both of us and we had nothing.

 

Ruthless *****.

[Phil]

Why do want a November cold snap that won't be a quarter of what a January event could be? This is just crazy IMO. Major November cold waves were extremely rare the first half of the 20th century and the winters were great. It's obvious front loaded winters are poison for January. I guess everyone is ok with mediocrity now. January has FAR greater potential than any other month.

Your January obsession is out of control.

 

Any month from November - February can deliver the goods. See 2010/11. The fact you're hoping to blowtorch your way through 75% of winter just for a *statistical shot* at something in January seems very strange to me.

 

To each his own, I guess?

[Front Ranger]

Your January obsession is out of control.

 

Any month from November - February can deliver the goods. See 2010/11. The fact you're hoping to blowtorch your way through 75% of winter just for a *statistical shot* at something in January seems very strange to me.

 

To each his own, I guess?

 

Historically, the coldest and snowiest Januaries blow away the coldest and snowiest other months in the PNW.

 

That's snow wizard's point. Awesome is awesome, but January has the most potential for awesome-ness.

[Phil]

Historically, the coldest and snowiest Januaries blow away the coldest and snowiest other months in the PNW.

 

That's snow wizard's point. Awesome is awesome, but January has the most potential for awesome-ness.

It's not really about that. It's more about Jim's expressing dismay at those who desire wintry patterns in November and/or December, because he thinks early-season events somehow prevent good Januaries. All of this fear based on a few shoddy statistics from winters that occurred 30+ years ago, which may or may not hold any physical relevance whatsoever to today's system state.

 

I'm not looking to get into an argument over this. Just my two cents.

[snow_wizard]

Verbatim, the 00z GFS depicts a near record-breaking +PNA to start November, which hoses all the continental air to far-away lands. Gross.

 

There will obviously be a reversal at some point.  You really seem to be getting cold feet lately.

[snow_wizard]

It's not really about that. It's more about Jim's expressing dismay at those who desire wintry patterns in November and/or December, because he thinks early-season events somehow prevent good Januaries. All of this fear based on a few shoddy statistics from winters that occurred 30+ years ago, which may or may not hold any physical relevance whatsoever to today's system state.

 

I'm not looking to get into an argument over this. Just my two cents.

 

The last 35 years have featured more November Arctic events than the previous 100 years combined.  And you know what?  ZERO really cold Januaries in that time.  For some reason we do better when it waits.  That was even true in our big winters from the first half of the 20th century.

[Timmy Supercell]

Historically, the coldest and snowiest Januaries blow away the coldest and snowiest other months in the PNW.

 

That's snow wizard's point. Awesome is awesome, but January has the most potential for awesome-ness.

 

Recent history dictates that Dec and Feb have the most potential for wintery weather.

 

January is gonna be another near-record warmest, just watch.

[Front Ranger]

It's not really about that. It's more about Jim's expressing dismay at those who desire wintry patterns in November and/or December, because he thinks early-season events somehow prevent good Januaries. All of this fear based on a few shoddy statistics from winters that occurred 30+ years ago, which may or may not hold any physical relevance whatsoever to today's system state.

 

I'm not looking to get into an argument over this. Just my two cents.

He wants a great January. Because that month has the greatest potential. You didn't seem to understand why he's so set on January, saying "any month can deliver the goods". It's pretty simple.

[Phil]

There will obviously be a reversal at some point. You really seem to be getting cold feet lately.

Back to at least 1950, there aren't any -PNA winters that were preceded +1SD or greater +PNA regimes in both October and November.

 

So yeah, if this pattern is still with us by thanksgiving, I'll start sweating a little (regarding my winter forecast).

[snow_wizard]

Historically, the coldest and snowiest Januaries blow away the coldest and snowiest other months in the PNW.

 

That's snow wizard's point. Awesome is awesome, but January has the most potential for awesome-ness.

 

So obvious and provable yet many don't seem to get it.  Is it so insane to want something that used to happen on a reasonably regular basis and hasn't since 1980?

[snow_wizard]

Recent history dictates that Dec and Feb have the most potential for wintery weather.

 

January is gonna be another near-record warmest, just watch.

 

You have no way of knowing that.  Maybe it will, but it will flip at some point.

[Phil]

He wants a great January. Because that month has the greatest potential. You didn't seem to understand why he's so set on January, saying "any month can deliver the goods". It's pretty simple.

Everyone here wants a great January. That wasn't what I was alluding to.

 

It's the idea that November and/or December must torch at all costs for January to perform. It's utter nonsense on par with astrology-based winter forecasting techniques.

[snow_wizard]

Back to at least 1950, there aren't any -PNA winters that were preceded +1SD or greater +PNA regimes in both October and November.

 

So yeah, if this pattern is still with us by thanksgiving, I'll start sweating a little (regarding my winter forecast).

 

I would be fine with -PNA later in the month.  We can get that without it being big event.

[snow_wizard]

Everyone here wants a great January. That wasn't what I was alluding to.

 

It's the idea that November and/or December must torch at all costs for January to perform. It's utter nonsense on par with astrology-based winter forecasting techniques.

 

It doesn't have to torch.  Just not be frigid.  Big difference.

 

The numbers are there for all to see.  Almost every really big winter was preceded by a mild November.

[Phil]

It doesn't have to torch.  Just not be frigid.  Big difference.

Well, obviously I'm not going to change your mind on this one. I guess we'll see what happens.

[wx_statman]

The last 35 years have featured more November Arctic events than the previous 100 years combined.  And you know what?  ZERO really cold Januaries in that time.  For some reason we do better when it waits.  That was even true in our big winters from the first half of the 20th century.

 

November cold waves weren't that rare before. I think you're exaggerating here. 

[Phil]

It doesn't have to torch. Just not be frigid. Big difference.

 

The numbers are there for all to see. Almost every really big winter was preceded by a mild November.

You have a sample size of what, 5-10 years here? All of which took place 35-100+ years ago, within climate system states extremely different from the current one?

 

Yeah, that's logical reasoning..

[Deweydog]

So obvious and provable yet many don't seem to get it. Is it so insane to want something that used to happen on a reasonably regular basis and hasn't since 1980?

I think you're too caught up in a state of mind rather than a state of the atmosphere.

[TT-SEA]

GFS MOS shows some more +5 days this week. October is going to end up fairly well above normal it seems.

[westcoastexpat]

There will obviously be a reversal at some point.  You really seem to be getting cold feet lately.

 

I think this is a dangerous line of thought. If a "pattern" used to happen 35 years ago, and hasn't happened since, my money is on this just being the new normal. That doesn't mean a mild November can't be followed by an epic January, but I think the set up is a lot more complex than simply "arctic air in November means no epic January"

 

We could have an strong El Nino winter where there is 1 week of 2 feet of snow and most people would feel pretty satisfied, even if the rest of the winter was a dud. Anything can happen. Patterns and signals only hint at potential, but the possibilities are endless!

[Trainwreck]

The good pep talk coach post was really funny Tim. That made me laugh hard.

[Kayla]

SEA has had 3 days this month without rain.

 

Could end the month with the same number.

 

And on the PDX side of things - Measurable precip has fallen on all but 2 days this month. This shatters the old record of 17 days of rain for October at PDX.

[HighlandExperience]

[TT-SEA]

SEA is up to 63 already after a low of 52.

 

That is a +7 on the day already.     

 

This is a warm pattern and looks to generally continue into next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen also posted a graphic showing how much warmer winters have been lately. The last well below average winter in the Western Valleys of Oregon was 1992-93. 

 

As for the coming week it looks absolutely gross on the 12z GFS. Lots of clouds, drizzle, light rain, and warm overnight lows. One of the things I hate about this time of year. If it is going to be warm I would rather it be sunny. Out in Oklahoma last week it was so gorgeous. Kind of a downer to be back here in the muck. Incredibly boring pattern too. 

[TT-SEA]

Mark Nelsen also posted a graphic showing how much warmer winters have been lately. The last well below average winter in the Western Valleys of Oregon was 1992-93. 

 

As for the coming week it looks absolutely gross on the 12z GFS. Lots of clouds, drizzle, light rain, and warm overnight lows. One of the things I hate about this time of year. If it is going to be warm I would rather it be sunny. Out in Oklahoma last week it was so gorgeous. Kind of a downer to be back here in the muck. Incredibly boring pattern too. 

 

 

A little better up here thanks to offshore flow.     

[westcoastexpat]

It's not really about that. It's more about Jim's expressing dismay at those who desire wintry patterns in November and/or December, because he thinks early-season events somehow prevent good Januaries. All of this fear based on a few shoddy statistics from winters that occurred 30+ years ago, which may or may not hold any physical relevance whatsoever to today's system state.

 

I'm not looking to get into an argument over this. Just my two cents.

I strongly agree with this. The barking at others hoping for an arctic blast in the fantasy land range right now (November) is what is off-putting. Let people want cold and snow in the tangible future.

 

Most people here want snow during the holidays over January anyway.

[TT-SEA]

The PDO is really rising right now...

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

[westcoastexpat]

The PDO is really rising right now...

 

This would be good for Jim. May lead to a warm November and start to crash again come the new year.