October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a small cell on the SW WA coast is warranting a severe thunderstorm warning right now.   I wonder if the NWS is going to be more apt to put out those warnings after what happened in Manzanita.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Went to bed around midnight it was 44, woke up this morning and it is 51. Overnight lows this month have been extremely mild. The monthly average low for me is 39. Have only had 4 sub-40 nights so far this month. So far my max/min for the month is 65/35. Talk about no spread. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

When I moved up here the record late Freeze date at Silver Falls was October 22nd. I think our first freeze has been later than that date at least half of the six years since I have lived here. I'll have to check the records and see, but I think 2013 might be the only fall we had a freeze before that date. 

[TT-SEA]

Went to bed around midnight it was 44, woke up this morning and it is 51. Overnight lows this month have been extremely mild. The monthly average low for me is 39. Have only had 4 sub-40 nights so far this month. So far my max/min for the month is 65/35. Talk about no spread. 

 

Same here... consistent with small diurnal swings.     

[Jesse]

Some lightning offshore this morning. Obviously nothing like the morning of 10/14 though. That was an insane event.

[Phil]

Here is an explanation from the MN DNR on fall colors this year in Minnesota...

 

It’s been a good summer for trees, with ample warm days and rain, and that should mean vibrant colors when they do come, said Eric Singsaas, director of the Wood and Bioeconomy Initiative at the University of Minnesota Duluth’s Natural Resources Research Institute. Trees this year are generally in good shape, unlike in drought years when stressed trees may lose their leaves early without turning bright colors. (Very early coloring and drying are signs of unhealthy trees, not an early autumn.)

I noticed the same thing when it got super warm last week. We went from green trees to near-peak conditions within four days. Have never seen a transition like that before.

 

Oaks are still 100% green, while the big tulip poplars and sycamores are shedding like mad.

[TT-SEA]

I noticed the same thing when it got super warm last week. We went from green trees to near-peak conditions within four days. Have never seen a transition like that before.

 

Oaks are still 100% green, while the big tulip poplars and sycamores are shedding like mad.

 

 

Good fall color is being equated with chilly nights.    That is not really driving force.   Of course the weather is cooler in October.   The decreasing daylight and cooler overall weather plays a role... but it can be much warmer than normal in October and we can still have great fall colors.    Clearly moisture plays a role here because its been warmer than normal with mild nights for almost the entire month and the fall colors have still been good.  

[MossMan]

53 degrees and cloudy. My apple tree leaves have really started changing color now. The Cherry tree has just started.

[Jesse]

Fall color has been great down here. I think the cooler than average nights in September got things off on the right foot.

 

Things really started peaking after the cold mornings we had the 11th-13th.

[TT-SEA]

This has not been a cool, dry month with chilly nights which has been cited as required for good fall color.  

 

Fall color is related to moisture this year.      The lowest temp at SEA this month has been 43.    And the fall color is really nice around Seattle.  

 

If all it took was 2 clear nights in October then we would have great fall color every year.  

 

The fall colors in Minnesota also make that point since its been very warm all of September and October there and fall color was spectacular... thanks to abundant moisture.  

[TT-SEA]

Nice day... and fairly warm as well.   Already close to 60 in Seattle.     

 

[Phil]

Fall color has been great down here. I think the cooler than average nights in September got things off on the right foot.

 

Things really started peaking after the cold mornings we had the 11th-13th.

I've read that the diurnal variation in the dewpoint depression is a major factor for some species, due to its effect on transpiration balance. That and warmer antecedent temperatures that keep the trees' peripheral metabolic rates slightly higher.

 

Could explain why our mini-heatwave ignited the fall color, while the opposite might happen out there. Our dewpoints tend to increase with warm/dry weather, while yours tend to decline or remain similar.

[TT-SEA]

I've read that the diurnal variation in the dewpoint depression is a major factor for some species, due to its effect on transpiration balance. That and warmer antecedent temperatures that keep the trees' peripheral metabolic rates slightly higher.

 

Could explain why our mini-heatwave ignited the fall color, while the opposite might happen out there. Our dewpoints tend to increase with warm/dry weather, while yours tend to decline or remain similar.

 

 

 

Here is the explanation from the Seattle Times:

 

The leaves' color can vary with the weather. The more water there is during the spring, summer and fall, the more color in the leaves. From year to year, the weather in any part of the United States is different. Midwesterners might remember a very colorful autumn in the Midwest, and when they visit Seattle we may not have a bright color display that fall. This could be due to poorer growing conditions one year.

[Phil]

Here is the explanation from the Seattle Times:

 

The leaves' color can vary with the weather. The more water there is during the spring, summer and fall, the more color in the leaves. From year to year, the weather in any part of the United States is different. Midwesterners might remember a very colorful autumn in the Midwest, and when they visit Seattle we may not have a bright color display that fall. This could be due to poorer growing conditions one year.

That seems a bit oversimplified to me. We've had truly torrid, drought dominated growing seasons that were followed by amazing fall color, and visa versa. The colors also vary by species from year to year, it seems.

[Front Ranger]

I think we can all agree that no matter what causes fall color, the more color there is, the higher the chance of a January 1916/50/69 redux.

 

And anyone arguing that those analogs don't apply because they're old needs to remember: the two teams in the World Series haven't won it for 68 and 108 years respectively. It's a throwback year!

[Deweydog]

I think we can all agree that no matter what causes fall color, the more color there is, the higher the chance of a January 1916/50/69 redux.

 

And anyone arguing that those analogs don't apply because they're old needs to remember: the two teams in the World Series haven't won it for 68 and 108 years respectively. It's a throwback year!

Scientrific!

[TT-SEA]

Up to 63 at SEA.   

[MossMan]

been a partly to mostly sunny day up here, also breezy and warm.

[Deweydog]

Up to 63 at SEA.

What's the record for the day?

[TT-SEA]

What's the record for the day?

 

 

67... which was tied last year.   

 

4 degrees cooler this year.   

 

#makingimprovements

[Tundra]

The newest edition of the D+11 SUPER GFS ENSEMBLE ANALOG COMPOSITE is still showing the Winter of 1983-84 as the highest correlation. It's centered right on the same date on 11/05 as 1983.

 

http://i.imgur.com/YATFbTe.gif

 

However take a look at the newest edition of the D+11 12Z GFS ANALOG COMPOSITE. It shows the Winter of 1968-1969 as the highest correlation. It is also centered on the same date 11/05 as in 1968. The Winter of 1968-69 was a weak El Nino. We are headed towards a neutral or weak La Nina but there's an outside chance we could still have a weak El Nino Winter.

 

http://i.imgur.com/gni9wM4.gif

[westcoastexpat]

November Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

JFM Outlook

[SilverFallsAndrew]

November Outlook

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_temp.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_prcp.gif

 

 

 

 

 

JFM Outlook

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead03/off03_temp.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead03/off03_prcp.gif

 

I do not remember any winter outlook ever showing any part of the PNW as having a greater than average chance for below normal temps.

[Sometimesdylan]

I do not remember any winter outlook ever showing any part of the PNW as having a greater than average chance for below normal temps.

Same with SE AK. Feels good to see that. Hope it verifies. Hope I picked the right winter to get into ice climbing

[Weather101]

Same with SE AK. Feels good to see that. Hope it verifies. Hope I picked the right winter to get into ice climbing

Sounds dangerous? Or is not?

[Sometimesdylan]

Sounds dangerous? Or is not?

 

There is risk, but there is risk in everything we do.

 

On another note: Downtown Juneau had a couple gusts to 65mph per the Juneau forecast discussion.

 

A nice clear night with some chance to see some Aurora! I'll take it...

[Sometimesdylan]

http://www.gi.alaska.edu/sites/default/modules/auroraforecast/images/Alaska_6.png

 

A forecast not talked about much on this forum.... the Aurora forecast!

We're hopefully in for a treat tonight! Working evenings so I'll be able to check on the drive home.

[snow_wizard]

Hard to not be intrigued by what is going on this month.  One of the most negative AO Octobers on record, one of the driest Octobers on record in SE AK, perhaps the wettest October on record in the NW, an impressive block early in the month that would have caused an Arctic outbreak in the winter, early signs the CA drought is about to end, and much more.

 

Quite interesting to note three of the very negative AO Octobers also had very dry conditions in SE AK and the winters following all had at least one solidly cold month.  The years were 1968, 2009, and 2012.  Obviously only one (2012) wasn't a Nino.  While January 2013 wasn't anything to write home about it was the chilliest January of the century so far.  Looking at the 500mb anoms for that month it wasn't all that far from being something much better.  In general what is happening in SE AK bodes well for us during cold ENSO winters.  The bottom line is the chances are high of a very blocky winter.

[crf450ish]

Hard to not be intrigued by what is going on this month.  One of the most negative AO Octobers on record, one of the driest Octobers on record in SE AK, perhaps the wettest October on record in the NW, an impressive block early in the month that would have caused an Arctic outbreak in the winter, early signs the CA drought is about to end, and much more.

 

Quite interesting to note three of the very negative AO Octobers also had very dry conditions in SE AK and the winters following all had at least one solidly cold month.  The years were 1968, 2009, and 2012.  Obviously only one (2012) wasn't a Nino.  While January 2013 wasn't anything to write home about it was the chilliest January of the century so far.  Looking at the 500mb anoms for that month it wasn't all that far from being something much better.  In general what is happening in SE AK bodes well for us during cold ENSO winters.  The bottom line is the chances are high of a very blocky winter.

Is it plausible to assume that since the last 3 winters have been rather poor, and that so far, going into fall approaching winter things keep trending for the better, that maybe, JUST maybe the following (few) winters might give the goods?

[TT-SEA]

Is it plausible to assume that since the last 3 winters have been rather poor, and that so far, going into fall approaching winter things keep trending for the better, that maybe, JUST maybe the following (few) winters might give the goods?

 

 

Maybe?  

 

The answer is always maybe.    

[crf450ish]

Maybe?  

 

The answer is always maybe.    

Indeed...

[Trainwreck]

Well come on Jim, is it a good month or a bad month? I've heard both recently from you, after every positive or every negative, you shouldn't flip flop like the models do consistently. Just sayin bro heim.

[Phil]

Hard to not be intrigued by what is going on this month. One of the most negative AO Octobers on record, one of the driest Octobers on record in SE AK, perhaps the wettest October on record in the NW, an impressive block early in the month that would have caused an Arctic outbreak in the winter, early signs the CA drought is about to end, and much more.

 

Quite interesting to note three of the very negative AO Octobers also had very dry conditions in SE AK and the winters following all had at least one solidly cold month. The years were 1968, 2009, and 2012. Obviously only one (2012) wasn't a Nino. While January 2013 wasn't anything to write home about it was the chilliest January of the century so far. Looking at the 500mb anoms for that month it wasn't all that far from being something much better. In general what is happening in SE AK bodes well for us during cold ENSO winters. The bottom line is the chances are high of a very blocky winter.

Signs definitely pointing towards a blocky winter. That's always an important first step to prolonged cold in the mid latitudes, regardless of everything else. Without blocking, it's a hopeless endeavor (especially in climates like yours).

 

This is a very unusual year so far. We have the niña cell, but it's extremely weak (and still weakening as of now). Given this fact, in conjunction with the +QBO/Scandi Ridge, that huge Aleutian Low is a strange anomaly. The only years to really feature this in tandem with a homogenous background state are 1959/60, 1980/81, and 1983/84. We had 2010/11 in October emulate this regime, but it flipped in November.

 

The 1983/84 analog really intrigues me. Obviously that was a huge +PV/+NAM year, but it wouldn't shock me if we follow that sort of progression this winter, albeit a blockier version of it.

[snow_wizard]

Well come on Jim, is it a good month or a bad month? I've heard both recently from you, after every positive or every negative, you shouldn't flip flop like the models do consistently. Just sayin bro heim.

 

The month isn't what I hoped for, but it hasn't been bad.  I would be much more disappointed if the minus height anomaly over the NE Pacific was centered around 50N 150W.  This year it's much closer to the coast.  It's kind of in between the best and worst case scenarios and quite rare.  No doubt things have been intriguing.

[snow_wizard]

Signs definitely pointing towards a blocky winter. That's always an important first step to prolonged cold in the mid latitudes, regardless of everything else. Without blocking, it's a hopeless endeavor (especially in climates like yours).

 

This is a very unusual year so far. We have the niña cell, but it's extremely weak (and still weakening as of now). Given this fact, in conjunction with the +QBO/Scandi Ridge, that huge Aleutian Low is a strange anomaly. The only years to really feature this in tandem with a homogenous background state are 1959/60, 1980/81, and 1983/84. We had 2010/11 in October emulate this regime, but it flipped in November.

 

The 1983/84 analog really intrigues me. Obviously that was a huge +PV/+NAM year, but it wouldn't shock me if we follow that sort of progression this winter, albeit a blockier version of it.

 

1983-84 was pretty D**n blocky.  The December cold wave was epic.

 

BTW you should say huge displaced Aleutian low.  It's not in the typical spot.  Just to muddy the waters more!  I expect the atmosphere will become more Ninaish when the MJO gets into the IO and or MC.

[crf450ish]

I want this winter to just pound the pi** out of the west side of the state 

[Front Ranger]

DEN stayed below 0 for four straight days with the December 1983 cold wave. 9 straight days below 20.

 

The average temp for the month was 17.4, by far the coldest December on record for Denver.

[TT-SEA]

It was juuuuuuuust a little bit snowy and cold for me in 1983-84 in the scenic southern suburbs of the Twin Cities.  

 

For example... a high of -17 on 12/23/83 with almost 2 feet of snow on the ground.

 

A very snowy winter with at least a foot of snow on the ground from late November until almost March.      Just about 100 inches of snow for the winter.

[Phil]

It was juuuuuuuust a little bit snowy and cold for me in 1983-84 in the scenic southern suburbs of the Twin Cities.

 

For example... a high of -17 on 12/23/83 with almost 2 feet of snow on the ground.

 

A very snowy winter with at least a foot of snow on the ground from late November until almost March.

That was a brutal winter here too. IAD plunged to -17F with 50mph sustained winds in some areas behind that Arctic front in January 1984. Basically the January version of February 2015.

 

Was also a winter full of convective snow squalls, also similar to 2014/15.

[HighlandExperience]

1983-84 was pretty D**n blocky. The December cold wave was epic.

 

BTW you should say huge displaced Aleutian low. It's not in the typical spot. Just to muddy the waters more! I expect the atmosphere will become more Ninaish when the MJO gets into the IO and or MC.

What was that winter season like in Western Wa?