October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Why the forum-wide infatuation with Jim? He's is a good sport. I doubt he's got the sniffles over a little internet forum ribbing.

[Jesse]

We also had an east wind spike this morning, which shot the temps way up after 5am.

There were also some early morning sunbreaks that made for a some pretty scenes.

 

East winds were blowing moderately when this was taken.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting temperature profile today.  A lot of places are 10+ degrees cooler than they were early this morning.

 

On another note...the ECMWF weeklies show the return of the GOA ridge in early December.  The control model shows a major cold wave mid November.

[snow_wizard]

2014-15 repeat looking likely.

 

The next century's winters will be an endlessly repeating two year loop of 14-15 and 15-16 carbon copies.

 

We're not in a Nino this winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty damp afternoon down this way. 57/47 with 0.22" of rain so far today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We're not in a Nino this winter.

 

I thought that winter was warm neutral?

[snow_wizard]

Until we have a great January again I do not think it is something we can even assume will come our way again. We have had some good December's in the past 20-30 years, and some great events in November and February, but the honest truth is none of these months have come close to our best Januaries. Will we have a major regional arctic outbreak in January again? Yes, absolutely. Will we have a January that rivals 1969, 1957, 1950, 1949,1936, 1930, etc... for duration of cold and snow and monthly averages regionwide? The jury is still out on that one. 

 

I understand people's feelings on this point.  We need to break the ice on January or get the January monkey off or back or however you want to say it.

[crf450ish]

Juneau is probably going to have a top 5 driest October on record. Crazy

Has anyone cross referenced this info with what happened here in WA during those dry periods in Juneau?

[snow_wizard]

I thought that winter was warm neutral?

 

Official weak Nino.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the CPC forecasters seem to like the idea of us getting hit mid winter.  Their Jan - Mar outlook is for cold in WA and a decent north to south temperature gradient.  That profile would suggest opportinities for battles between the southern branch and northern branch.

[snow_wizard]

Has anyone cross referenced this info with what happened here in WA during those dry periods in Juneau?

 

Some of the years on the list were incredible winters here. 

[TT-SEA]

I understand people's feelings on this point. We need to break the ice on January or get the January monkey off or back or however you want to say it.

Also not everyone is so obsessed about it.

[snow_wizard]

One thing I will say right now is since October didn't turn out quite the way I wanted I'm not all in for this to be a great winter, but I think our chances are still good.  I'm going to dissect 1980-81 tonight, because that analog bothers me for obvious reasons.  The placement of the minus height anom over the NE Pacific is different this year from 1980 so that is an important difference.

[Tundra]

According to Meteorologist Michael Ventrice, the NCAR_CESM was the King of the Summer forecast and it doesn't look good for the PNW this Winter. Hopefully it will be wrong.

 

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice

"With NCAR_CESM king of the Summer forecast... it will be very interesting to see whether it will keep that crown for our upcoming Winter"

 

http://i.imgur.com/gLqUEPc.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/790658969165504513

[SilverFallsAndrew]

According to Meteorologist Michael Ventrice, the NCAR_CESM was the King of the Summer forecast and it doesn't look good for the PNW this Winter. Hopefully it will be wrong.

 

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice

"With NCAR_CESM king of the Summer forecast... it will be very interesting to see whether it will keep that crown for our upcoming Winter"

 

http://i.imgur.com/gLqUEPc.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/790658969165504513

 

Well better for the PNW than pretty much anywhere else in the lower 48...

[luminen]

Some of our greatest winters have featured a couple of warning shots in December in leadup to main event in January. Jim is being misunderstood by many and disrespected in my opinion. I don't understand the mocking, and i don't find it at all funny. Anyways. Jim has been waiting for a 1915-16, 1949-50, 1968-69 his entire life. One that features a 4-5 week period of predominantly cold/snowy period of weather. That doesn't happen in November or even the first half of December. Minus PNA in november is ok, but an arctic blast with a week of snow in late November, for whatever reason hinders our opportunity in late December and January for an extended period of snow/arctic air. 2006 and 2010 featured arctic air in November and then later in the winter, but both events were less than a week in duration. Nothing extended or spectAcular. I'm with Jim on this one. To each their own, but I personally would love to see anything but arctic air in November and early December and then an above average chance of an extended period of arctic/snowy weather at the end of December and January.

 

It makes sense. We can't have the cold air be half-baked like it would be in November or early December. Mid December to Late January is prime time. 

[Tundra]

Well better for the PNW than pretty much anywhere else in the lower 48...

I think your looking at the one next to it, the CCSM4 which is indeed a full bake. The CESM is warm across the West and the extreme SE.

[Bryant]

Also not everyone is so obsessed about it.

Never once has he told people what they need to think, only what his opinion is on the topic. He can be obsessed with the topic as he wants, after all, we are all here for the same reason

[Phil]

One thing I will say right now is since October didn't turn out quite the way I wanted I'm not all in for this to be a great winter, but I think our chances are still good. I'm going to dissect 1980-81 tonight, because that analog bothers me for obvious reasons. The placement of the minus height anom over the NE Pacific is different this year from 1980 so that is an important difference.

Well, 1980/81 was smack dab in the middle of a monster solar max. Though I have to say, it's been a fantastic analog (for my area) since April.

[snow_wizard]

Well better for the PNW than pretty much anywhere else in the lower 48...

 

The GFDL should be called the global warming monger's dream model.  Sheesh.

[Phil]

Well better for the PNW than pretty much anywhere else in the lower 48...

You're looking at the wrong model. It's the one on the bottom right.

[Phil]

One thing I will say right now is since October didn't turn out quite the way I wanted I'm not all in for this to be a great winter, but I think our chances are still good. I'm going to dissect 1980-81 tonight, because that analog bothers me for obvious reasons. The placement of the minus height anom over the NE Pacific is different this year from 1980 so that is an important difference.

Have you checked out 1959/60? I think it's a better overall match than 1980/81, at least for October.

[snow_wizard]

Well, 1980/81 was smack dab in the middle of a monster solar max. Though I have to say, it's been a fantastic analog (for my area) since April.

 

Interestingly that year and 1949 were the best match for strong positive height anoms over the GOA Jun - Sep.  In 1980 heights plunged over the GOA in October whereas they stayed high in October 1949.  This year there is a negative anom center over the NE Pacific, but displaced far ESE of where it was in 1980.  I have always looked at 1980-81 as being a winter that should have been for us.  Many of the numbers were right, but it flopped miserably.  Thankfully there are distinct differences at the 500mb level over the NE Pacific, Alaska, and the PNW this October as compared to that one.

[snow_wizard]

Have you checked out 1959/60? I think it's a better overall match than 1980/81, at least for October.

 

I've heard that one talked about a lot.  Wasn't a great winter here, but with a few tweaks it could have been quite decent.

[Phil]

Interestingly that year and 1949 were the best match for strong positive height anoms over the GOA Jun - Sep. In 1980 heights plunged over the GOA in October whereas they stayed high in October 1949. This year there is a negative anom center over the NE Pacific, but displaced far ESE of where it was in 1980. I have always looked at 1980-81 as being a winter that should have been for us. Many of the numbers were right, but it flopped miserably. Thankfully there are distinct differences at the 500mb level over the NE Pacific, Alaska, and the PNW this October as compared to that one.

If we're looking at October alone, I think 2010/11 is king for best hemispheric match, along with 1959/60. Obviously, 2010/11 was a much stronger Niña w/ much weaker geomag forcing, and that was made obvious in November.

[Kayla]

Latest Euro weeklies show a pretty major cold wave for the west in the November 16th - 21st timeframe. Shows a pretty decent block with -10 to -15 850mb departures from SEA to LAX and a frigid Columbia Basin. 

[Phil]

I've heard that one talked about a lot. Wasn't a great winter here, but with a few tweaks it could have been quite decent.

The best -ENSO matches I can find for October are 1959/60, 1974/75, 1980/81, and 2010/11.

 

October 2016 to date:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C618D48A-4787-42E8-8987-C1B8B62E5739_zpsk4qtkyws.gif

 

Best -ENSO matches:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-10/1A0E3ED1-D06D-4E4C-AF8E-32A0432617F7_zpsuohdzsfg.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-10/C3E8651F-B56E-4B0C-8B8D-4056A2F2B9A8_zpsjqyqhqaw.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-10/475413D6-A853-43B4-A706-D6BB131C1251_zps7eswgvk0.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-10/969B2F5F-7188-4A12-A4D6-B60F5AAF8F00_zpsjpd3ytgc.gif

[snow_wizard]

Latest Euro weeklies show a pretty major cold wave for the west in the November 16th - 21st timeframe. Shows a pretty decent block with -10 to -15 850mb departures from SEA to LAX and a frigid Columbia Basin. 

 

That's the control model.  The ensemble mean was nice in that it showed above normal heights returning to the GOA in early December.

[Phil]

I guess I could include 1995/96 as well. Though it didn't have much AO blocking.

[TT-SEA]

The best -ENSO matches I can find for October are 1959/60, 1974/75, 1980/81, and 2010/11.

 

October 2016 to date:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C618D48A-4787-42E8-8987-C1B8B62E5739_zpsk4qtkyws.gif

 

Best -ENSO matches:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-10/1A0E3ED1-D06D-4E4C-AF8E-32A0432617F7_zpsuohdzsfg.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-10/C3E8651F-B56E-4B0C-8B8D-4056A2F2B9A8_zpsjqyqhqaw.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-10/475413D6-A853-43B4-A706-D6BB131C1251_zps7eswgvk0.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-10/969B2F5F-7188-4A12-A4D6-B60F5AAF8F00_zpsjpd3ytgc.gif

 

 

None of those look like great matches for the PNW.   1959 and 1974 were sort of opposite.   

[snow_wizard]

The best -ENSO matches I can find for October are 1959/60, 1974/75, 1980/81, and 2010/11.

 

October 2016 to date:

 

 

Best -ENSO matches:

 

 

 

 

 

The placement of the NE Pacific minus anomaly is odd this year.  Closer to the coast than you would normally see.  Could mean we might be in for some sort of hybrid winter.

[BLI snowman]

I've heard that one talked about a lot. Wasn't a great winter here, but with a few tweaks it could have been quite decent.

1959-60 is a very underrated winter for the Portland area. Lotta snow in January and a great late season event. Big cold airmass in mid November, too.

[Phil]

None of those look like great matches for the PNW. 1959 and 1974 were sort of opposite.

Irrelevant.

 

They're the best hemispheric matches for the month.

[TT-SEA]

That's the control model.  The ensemble mean was nice in that it showed above normal heights returning to the GOA in early December.

 

 

ECMWF weeklies have been wrong all year as it has been pointed out here many times.   There is no way to know what will happen in early December at this point.   Its completely a guess and it sounds like you are searching for something to keep yourself happy.    Much like I did early last summer.   Hard to notice when you are doing it but seems silly when you see someone else doing it.  

[The Swamp]

I disagree. Brennan is bothered by posts that he claims have been disrespectful and mocking toward Jim. Both Tim and Phil do not think they have mocked or disrespected Tim. The only way to move forward is to cite these posts and give everyone the opportunity to either explain themselves, retract or apologize, otherwise we're just sweeping it under the rug until it resurfaces.

I say a cage match is in order to resolve this once and for all.

[Phil]

ECMWF weeklies have been wrong all year as it has been pointed out here many times. There is no way to know what will happen in early December at this point. Its completely a guess and it sounds like you are searching for something to keep yourself happy. Much like I did early last summer. Hard to notice when you are doing it but seems silly when you see someone else doing it.

Lol, you were doing that all fricking summer long.

 

[TT-SEA]

Irrelevant.

 

They're the best hemispheric matches for the month.

 

 

So the result could be totally different locally and still match those years on a global scale... so not really helpful in determining how our winter will play out.

[TT-SEA]

Lol, you were doing that all fricking summer long.

 

 

 

I just said that.    And was mocked for it... now Jim is doing the same thing.  

 

I did not do that with August and September at all.   I quit guessing.   It was a warm summer overall.  

[Deweydog]

So I'm getting the feeling no one knows exactly what is going to happen this winter.

 

Hmmm.

[TT-SEA]

So I'm getting the feeling no one knows exactly what is going to happen this winter.

 

Hmmm.

 

It appears so.