October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

So the result could be totally different locally and still match those years on a global scale... so not really helpful in determining how our winter will play out.

That's exactly what long range/seasonal forecasting is. You think minute details can be accurately forecasted months in advance?

 

Lord almighty.

[TT-SEA]

That's exactly what long range/seasonal forecasting is. You think minute details can be accurately forecasted months in advance?

 

Lord almighty.

 

 

I don't think that... which is why doing a long range forecast for someone's backyard is pretty difficult.  

[Kayla]

That's the control model.  The ensemble mean was nice in that it showed above normal heights returning to the GOA in early December.

 

It is. Just a little something of note as the control run is the most accurate EPS member and the pattern begins to set up in about ~20 days if verified.

[Phil]

I just said that. And was mocked for it... now Jim is doing the same thing.

 

I did not do that with August and September at all. I quit guessing. It was a warm summer overall.

Blue is a warm color. Reminds me of blue skies, and blue skies mean sunshine, warmth, and a high niceness index!

[snow_wizard]

So I'm getting the feeling no one knows exactly what is going to happen this winter.

 

Hmmm.

 

October had to go and misbehave.  D**n month!

[Phil]

I don't think that... which is why doing a long range forecast for someone's backyard is pretty difficult.

Which is why no one is doing that.

 

Large scale pattern progression is all we can guess at. No one uses analogs to predict the exact behavior of a winter on a week to week basis. Or to claim that Arctic blasts in November always lead to blowtorch Januaries...

 

[Deweydog]

October had to go and misbehave. D**n month!

You know how the ol' saying goes:

 

Cloudy October nights = Varying types of weather in the subsequent weeks and months.

 

Thanksgiving will save us!

[MossMan]

So I'm getting the feeling no one knows exactly what is going to happen this winter.

 

Hmmm.

Just like every year! And just like a Seahawks game!

[TT-SEA]

Blue is a warm color. Reminds me of blue skies, and blue skies mean sunshine, warmth, and a high niceness index!

 

 

It was warmer than normal in my area... and in the Puget Sound region.    It was not a blue summer here.    It was warmer than normal.   And August/September was as warm or even warmer than in 2015.  

[Tundra]

Latest Euro weeklies show a pretty major cold wave for the west in the November 16th - 21st timeframe. Shows a pretty decent block with -10 to -15 850mb departures from SEA to LAX and a frigid Columbia Basin.

That's great news!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Latest Euro weeklies show a pretty major cold wave for the west in the November 16th - 21st timeframe. Shows a pretty decent block with -10 to -15 850mb departures from SEA to LAX and a frigid Columbia Basin. 

 

I'll take it. Even if it offers shades of November 2014.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

October had to go and misbehave.  D**n month!

 

It was an interesting an active October though. It does remind me a little of October 1998. We had a tornado near Silverton that October too... Touched down about 1/2 mile from my Dad's house across an open field. Even after living all those years in Oklahoma it is the only tornado I have ever seen in person.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 29/24 at PDX in March 1960 was pretty special... 16 consecutive sub 40 highs in January too.

[Phil]

It was warmer than normal in my area... and in the Puget Sound region. It was not a blue summer here. It was warmer than normal. And August/September was as warm or even warmer than in 2015.

That's why I don't make forecasts for individual zipcodes. The majority of the PNW was slightly cooler than average, and the entire region was cooler than normal @ 900mb and above.

 

That's all that matters to me. It was a troughy summer overall, minus two weeks in August.

[TT-SEA]

That's why I don't make forecasts for individual zipcodes. The majority of the PNW was slightly cooler than average, and the entire region was cooler than normal @ 900mb and above.

 

That's all that matters to me. It was a troughy summer overall, minus two weeks in August.

 

 

Good!

 

And it was a warmer than normal summer for us.   That is all the matters to me in the end.

[crf450ish]

It was an interesting an active October though. It does remind me a little of October 1998. We had a tornado near Silverton that October too... Touched down about 1/2 mile from my Dad's house across an open field. Even after living all those years in Oklahoma it is the only tornado I have ever seen in person.

I don't think you'd want to see what a real monster can do in real life. I have never experienced one and I'm glad. My mother has showed me home video footage of one my grandfather took back in the 80's with his shoebox sized camcorder. It was in Indiana, and you could see fence posts swirling around in it....NO thanks. 

[Front Ranger]

It was an interesting an active October though. It does remind me a little of October 1998. We had a tornado near Silverton that October too... Touched down about 1/2 mile from my Dad's house across an open field. Even after living all those years in Oklahoma it is the only tornado I have ever seen in person.

 

I witnessed that storm from a distance, though I didn't actually see it touch down. I remember thinking it looked like a funnel cloud was forming, and then hearing later it really was a tornado.

[stuffradio]

That ECMWF control would be something.

[stuffradio]

ECMWF weeklies have been wrong all year as it has been pointed out here many times.   There is no way to know what will happen in early December at this point.   Its completely a guess and it sounds like you are searching for something to keep yourself happy.    Much like I did early last summer.   Hard to notice when you are doing it but seems silly when you see someone else doing it.

Keep it to PM please.

[Phil]

That ECMWF control would be something.

Would be funny if we followed 2010/11, despite the many differences in the tropics (and extratropics).

[Phil]

Yeah that control run is loltastic. Two additional reloads and plenty of precipitation.

 

The ensemble mean also opens the Arctic floodgates, but more centered in the Plains/Midwest.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I witnessed that storm from a distance, though I didn't actually see it touch down. I remember thinking it looked like a funnel cloud was forming, and then hearing later it really was a tornado.

 

I went hiking at Silver Falls that day. It was absolutely pouring all day. We caught some nice fish down in the trailless canyon though. 

[snow_wizard]

Kind of interesting the GFS is looking less torchy for the rest of the month compared to a few days ago.  The month actually finishes with reasonbly low thicknesses and weak surface pressure gradients.  At face value a bit chillyish.

[Phil]

Ugliest GFS run since 2014/15 incoming. Hopefully we get this crap out of the way before Thanksgiving.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ugliest GFS run since 2014/15 incoming. Hopefully we get this crap out of the way before Thanksgiving.

 

Jim loved it. November 2014 wasn't bad.

[Phil]

Jim loved it. November 2014 wasn't bad.

Yeah, should have said December 2014. That was possibly the nastiest pattern I've ever witnessed, maybe even worse than last December.

[MossMan]

Jim loved it. November 2014 wasn't bad.

Had 2" of snow and several days below freezing!

[stuffradio]

Had 2" of snow and several days below freezing!

If it weren't for the past couple years, I wouldn't get excited about 2 inches.

 

I don't mind the 00z for now, if not for the simple fact I need to get the Garlic in before we get lots of hard freezes (hopefully).

[ShawniganLake]

Decent amount of lightning just off of the coast tonight. 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF looks like something we just went through a week or so back.  The thing I like is it shows a huge SE ridge popping up again.  Kind of like half a negative PNA setup.  Like the GFS it shows a somewhat chilly finish to the month.

[snow_wizard]

It was an interesting an active October though. It does remind me a little of October 1998. We had a tornado near Silverton that October too... Touched down about 1/2 mile from my Dad's house across an open field. Even after living all those years in Oklahoma it is the only tornado I have ever seen in person.

 

The month has certainly not been all bad.  Historically wet (certainly so for the first half of the month), an Arctic outbreak setup earlier in the month, and a couple of storms that could have easily been top tier stuff if the details had played out differently.  Like so many months this year surface temperatures could have easily turned out cooler given the 850s and general setup.

 

I was in Liberty on Sunday and it was amazing over there! v Incredible fall color and fresh snow on the Stuart Range and even some of the Wenatchee Mountains.  There must have been some cold air damming along the east slopes of the Cascades because it was pretty chilly.  We've done a whole lot worse in past Octobers.

[snow_wizard]

I've actually got a decent streak of sub 50 minimums going right now.  The last 50+ min was October 8.  I was a bit worried this morning when it was 62 at 7am though.

[Phil]

The ECMWF looks like something we just went through a week or so back. The thing I like is it shows a huge SE ridge popping up again. Kind of like half a negative PNA setup. Like the GFS it shows a somewhat chilly finish to the month.

00z ECMWF is a raging +PNA, verbatim.

 

Also, I wouldn't call that a SE ridge. More like a giant US ridge that extends from the Intermountain west all the way into eastern Canada.

[Phil]

Towards d10 both the ECMWF and its ensemble mean have a complete -EPO/-AO/-NAO trifecta. Too bad all the cold air is trapped in Eurasia, thanks to that NPAC vortex.

[Phil]

There's a chance we finish with the highest SAI (Eurasian snow advance index) on record. Rapid snowcover advance over Eurasia during October is highly correlated with midwinter blocking and/or colder than average temperatures over most of the US.

[ShawniganLake]

00z ECMWF is a raging +PNA, verbatim.

 

Also, I wouldn't call that a SE ridge. More like a giant US ridge that extends from the Intermountain west all the way into eastern Canada.

I think he was just happy to see that chunk of cold air sliding thru BC and Alberta in the day 7-9 range.

[Jesse]

I've actually got a decent streak of sub 50 minimums going right now. The last 50+ min was October 8. I was a bit worried this morning when it was 62 at 7am though.

We were in the 40s before midnight last night as well. Also a pretty interesting sunset which was very similar to yesterday's sunrise. Narrow band of clearing along the western horizon with rain still falling moderately overhead actually made for a large rainbow in the eastern sky.

[Jesse]

I was in Liberty on Sunday and it was amazing over there! v Incredible fall color and fresh snow on the Stuart Range and even some of the Wenatchee Mountains. There must have been some cold air damming along the east slopes of the Cascades because it was pretty chilly. We've done a whole lot worse in past Octobers.

We were in the Eugene area and up along the McKenzie River on Saturday and the colors were stunning.

[TT-SEA]

I've actually got a decent streak of sub 50 minimums going right now. The last 50+ min was October 8. I was a bit worried this morning when it was 62 at 7am though.

 

Normal low at SEA now is 44... so its probably 40 there. Seems like a low standard for a streak.

 

I don't think the fall colors this year have anything to do with cooler than usual weather. I think it was the moisture recovery at the right time. Its only been below normal in Seattle on 4 days this month and barely so even then. And the nights have been generally warm most of the month.

 

Too much is made of needing cold weather for good fall color. There are other factors. Minnesota has had a very warm fall season and they had the some of the best fall color in years.

[TT-SEA]

Here is an explanation from the MN DNR on fall colors this year in Minnesota...

 

It’s been a good summer for trees, with ample warm days and rain, and that should mean vibrant colors when they do come, said Eric Singsaas, director of the Wood and Bioeconomy Initiative at the University of Minnesota Duluth’s Natural Resources Research Institute. Trees this year are generally in good shape, unlike in drought years when stressed trees may lose their leaves early without turning bright colors. (Very early coloring and drying are signs of unhealthy trees, not an early autumn.)