October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Nice to see us keep our streak alive. With the late evening showers we've now had measurable rain on 20/22 days this month.

 

 

Looks like rain on most days coming up... just not much in total and with lots of breaks and offshore flow.

[luminen]

I-90 westbound into Issaquah this morning...

 

 

Fall colours have been better than the past few years. Just like 2008. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14.22" of rain now on the month at my place...We could probably do okay with a short dry spell.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

.02" of rain during the 11pm hour at PDX. 

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like rain on most days coming up... just not much in total and with lots of breaks and offshore flow.

Wednesday looks like a potentially decent soaking. 

[ShawniganLake]

The 49/36 day here today was respectably chilly. 

[snow_wizard]

2008 was warm until ~mid-December. I just want snow.

 

That is one of the years that had +PNA in both October and November.  1942 and 1988 were also high PNA warm autumns.  1988 had a late first freeze and yet the winter had some serious teeth.  I continue to insist most of our really big winters have mild Novembers before them.  It's totally provable.  Some of the mild autumns could have been minus PNA I suppose.

 

Getting really technical it appears there is still a chance October could go down as a minus PNA with the old formula.  I think the old formula is better overall, but that's just my opinion.

[snow_wizard]

The 49/36 day here today was respectably chilly. 

 

Nice!  The max got a bit warmer than I would have liked here, but the low was 40 which isn't too bad.

[snow_wizard]

Fall colours have been better than the past few years. Just like 2008. 

 

No doubt.  Some of the non native trees have had amazing color this year.  Even some of the native ones have been good.

[snow_wizard]

Wednesday looks like a potentially decent soaking. 

 

That one should put our monthly totals into the stratosphere.  Rain that should have fallen on SE Alaska this month has hit here instead.  That can't be a bad thing going forward.

[wx_statman]

That one should put our monthly totals into the stratosphere.  Rain that should have fallen on SE Alaska this month has hit here instead.  That can't be a bad thing going forward.

 

2.17" so far this month in Juneau and 7.40" at SEA. Talk about backwards!

[ShawniganLake]

That one should put our monthly totals into the stratosphere.  Rain that should have fallen on SE Alaska this month has hit here instead.  That can't be a bad thing going forward.

Might push Shawnigan Lake near or above the 12" mark for October.  Top 5 wettest Octobers here will likely end up.

 

2003

1975

2016

1921

1967

[Weather101]

[Phil]

That is one of the years that had +PNA in both October and November. 1942 and 1988 were also high PNA warm autumns. 1988 had a late first freeze and yet the winter had some serious teeth. I continue to insist most of our really big winters have mild Novembers before them. It's totally provable. Some of the mild autumns could have been minus PNA I suppose.

 

Getting really technical it appears there is still a chance October could go down as a minus PNA with the old formula. I think the old formula is better overall, but that's just my opinion.

October has no chance of finishing with a -PNA (on either formula). I'm usually in agreement with you, but I think you're really, really reaching on this one. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.

 

Also, FWIW, October 2008 featured the most +AO on record, while this one will likely feature the most -AO on record. So yeah..they're a tad different. Regardless, 2008/09 went all ridgy in January anyway.

[Bryant]

Quite the gradient in the long range... bring that bad boy south a bit

[Phil]

Well, the strat/PV is cooperating this year (unlike recent years). Just need to wait for the change in the NPAC pattern during mid/late November to tap into all this potential w/ weak zonal winds, though technically the ongoing NPAC pattern is one of the main reasons for the weak PV.

 

It only this had waited a few months, lol. If it were mid December right now, you guys would be a lock for a January blast at this point. Literally off the charts @ 10mb..between 4 & 5 standard deviations below average. Yikes.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C146132A-49E4-4955-BC30-0EB95970A83B_zps30s9jurd.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Warm and sunny day here so far... already 62.

[Phil]

Might push Shawnigan Lake near or above the 12" mark for October. Top 5 wettest Octobers here will likely end up.

 

2003

1975

2016

1921

1967

Well, 2003 is a fantastic stratospheric match, all the way down to the wavenumber and breaker orientation. All this despite featuring the wrong ENSO/QBO sign. Goes to show how challenging intraseasonal forcing can be in had absence of a consistent background boundary state.

 

Wouldn't have envisioned this progression even 3 weeks ago. Very abnormal stuff ongoing right now.

[Deweydog]

Turning out to be a delightful weekend.

[Phil]

For anyone interested, here are two great papers I just finished reading.

 

Recent disruption and/or corruption of the QBO, and potential implications going forward:

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070921/abstract

 

Predictability of intraseasonal/MJO forcing within the deterministic range partially governed by the QBO:

 

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-016-3392-0

[TT-SEA]

Turning out to be a delightful weekend.

 

 

Really nice up here both days... with rain on both Friday and Saturday night but sunshine by morning.   Good timing of events.

[Brennan]

[Phil]

With the October AO nearly a lock to average below -1, and very likely to finish between -1.5 and -2, here is a bar graph depicting the average monthly October AO since 1950. Looks like we'll be giving 2002, 2009, and 2012 a run for their money.

 

Of course, two of those were Niños and the other was -ENSO but during a -QBO/solar max.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3770CCA7-58A2-4F91-923B-FA5010707C39_zpsjuyvt6oz.png

[Phil]

Most of the big -AO Octobers are Niños and/or -QBOs. There are very few Niña/+QBO years with deep -AOs in October. In fact, only one year featured a sub -1 OCT AO and was Niña/+QBO, and only a few other -ENSO/+QBO years had an AO near or below -0.5 in OCT.

 

We're probably looking at something like a -1.7 AO this month, which would set an all-time record for lowest OCT AO, in any year. So, this is indeed a very unusual situation ongoing presently.

[ShawniganLake]

Warm and sunny day here so far... already 62.

Rained here this morning. We had a 30 second sun break around noon that nearly blinded me. Then we socked right back in with low clouds. I could go for a few sunny dry days soon. Frosty mornings are nice.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a +5 at SEA today... the biggest departure of the month.     

[ShawniganLake]

Gfs long range is showing November starting out with a typical wet and breezy pattern.

[crf450ish]

With the October AO nearly a lock to average below -1, and very likely to finish between -1.5 and -2, here is a bar graph depicting the average monthly October AO since 1950. Looks like we'll be giving 2002, 2009, and 2012 a run for their money.

 

Of course, two of those were Niños and the other was -ENSO but during a -QBO/solar max.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3770CCA7-58A2-4F91-923B-FA5010707C39_zpsjuyvt6oz.png

I remember 2012 clearly, 2009 not so much. 

[Sometimesdylan]

2.17" so far this month in Juneau and 7.40" at SEA. Talk about backwards!

 

I'm not complaining

[Phil]

I remember 2012 clearly, 2009 not so much.

Niño year, but was the 2nd coldest October in US history.

 

December 2009 featured an Arctic blast into the western US w/ constructively interfering EPO/AO blocks. One of the lowest AOs in history, actually.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Niño year, but was the 2nd coldest October in US history.

 

December 2009 featured an Arctic blast into the western US w/ constructively interfering EPO/AO blocks. One of the lowest AOs in history, actually.

 

I was in Oklahoma that October and it was incredibly chilly for October there. That was an excellent winter out there too. 

[Deweydog]

Looks like a +5 at SEA today... the biggest departure of the month.

Only +6 for Olympia.

[TT-SEA]

Only +6 for Olympia.

 

 

OLM always runs warm.

 

#replacesensor

[TT-SEA]

SEA has had 3 days this month without rain.

 

Could end the month with the same number.

[bainbridgekid]

I really hope we skip November.  I suppose we could get away with a borderline snow.  The thing we want to avoid is extreme blocking with a major cold wave in November.

Pacific Northwest arctic outbreaks are a lot like birds.

 

One in the hand is worth two in the bush

[Phil]

For anyone interested in playing around with polar vortex analogs: http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html#ncep_clim_stats_nh

[Phil]

I'm still in awe of the SSW events in 1988/89 and 2008/09. Two of the most amazing PV implosions in recent times, both occurring in Niña/+QBO winters.

 

The February 1989 SSW is my personal benchmark.

[HighlandExperience]

Pacific Northwest arctic outbreaks are a lot like birds.

 

One in the hand is worth two in the bush

 

I agree. After the turds of the last 4 seasons, I will be happy with what we get. 

 

January 2012 was the last time I remember Seattle proper having a really good snowfall. Ever since then it has been downhill. 

[Bryant]

Early November time frame bears watching for wind in my opinion as energy from the low hits the coast

[Timmy Supercell]

More advisory level winds in Klamath Falls this evening. Sheesh. Very active October so far here. And factoring all of the wind I got during Spring and Summer, 2016 could go down as my windiest year I've ever experienced (based on # of windy days, not speeds). Even warm days had wind this year.