October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

What was that winter season like in Western Wa?

 

 

Looks like only about 12 inches of snow at my location for the winter... but really cold during the last half of December.

 

A lovely 28/11 with 3 inches of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

[BLI snowman]

What was that winter season like in Western Wa?

That was a pretty dry cold spell north of Salem. Highlight was the insane east wind storm on Christmas Eve. Enumclaw hit 90mph with temps in the teens.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Victoria proper was surprisingly warm today; ended hitting around 64F/sunny through much of the city. The airport just a little to the north only made it up to about 58F. Had it approached the temperatures seen in town it may have broken a record.

[stuffradio]

Maybe?  

 

The answer is always maybe.    

I'm pretty sure the answer is actually 42.

[TT-SEA]

Victoria proper was surprisingly warm today; ended hitting around 64F/sunny through much of the city. The airport just a little to the north only made it up to about 58F. Had it approached the temperatures seen in town it may have broken a record.

 

+7 today at SEA for the second day in a row.

 

00Z GFS MOS shows more 60s ahead with mild nights.   

 

After hovering close to normal for the first half... this month is heading towards being significantly warmer than normal now.

[snow_wizard]

What was that winter season like in Western Wa?

 

VERY cold December.  It was basically cold the entire month and very cold for about a week.  January had a run of dry cold also.  As you know just slight differences could have made it a lot snowier.  If there had been heavy snow cover during the main cold wave in Dec 1983 we would have undoubtedly seen many places hit sub zero readings.

[snow_wizard]

Is it plausible to assume that since the last 3 winters have been rather poor, and that so far, going into fall approaching winter things keep trending for the better, that maybe, JUST maybe the following (few) winters might give the goods?

 

For my area it would be unprecedented to go a fifth straight winter without substantial snowfall (more than 6 inches at least for the winter).  Some places did well in 2013-14, but not here.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

For my area it would be unprecedented to go a fifth straight winter without substantial snowfall (more than 6 inches at least for the winter).  Some places did well in 2013-14, but not here.

 

There hasn't been a decent snow event here since Jan 2012, probably the same in your area. So far this year has been looking a lot better for rainfall in California, a big turnaround from previous years.

[wx_statman]

VERY cold December.  It was basically cold the entire month and very cold for about a week.  January had a run of dry cold also.  As you know just slight differences could have made it a lot snowier.  If there had been heavy snow cover during the main cold wave in Dec 1983 we would have undoubtedly seen many places hit sub zero readings.

 

Absolutely, although that can be said of any cold wave. Some westside locations had pretty incredible lows in December 1983, even with little to no snowcover. 

 

On the coast, Long Beach hit 7F after only 0.5" of snow that had fallen two days earlier. Raymond hit 3F after a light snowfall as well (0.05" melted precip, no snowfall data). Grayland hit 7F on bare ground. 

 

Seattle's Jackson Park station hit a ridiculous 2F with only 1" on the ground officially. Really impressive cold wave. 

[IbrChris]

Absolutely, although that can be said of any cold wave. Some westside locations had pretty incredible lows in December 1983, even with little to no snowcover. 

 

On the coast, Long Beach hit 7F after only 0.5" of snow that had fallen two days earlier. Raymond hit 3F after a light snowfall as well (0.05" melted precip, no snowfall data). Grayland hit 7F on bare ground. 

 

Seattle's Jackson Park station hit a ridiculous 2F with only 1" on the ground officially. Really impressive cold wave. 

The rule of thumb in SE Idaho is no sub-zero lows without snow-cover, at least in the Snake River Valley. I've seen plenty of positive single digits with no snow however. 1" depth works as well as 12" for this purpose. Of course in areas with strong cold air advection out of the arctic, such as the northern Plains or Canadian prairies sub-zero readings can occur with no snow cover. Such is not the case west of the Rockies outside of localized frost hollows at fairly high elevations.

 

I can always identify near zero or below because my nose hairs start to accrete some tiny ice crystals (via normal breathing) which produces a sort of "itchy" feeling in my nostrils.

[Dan the Weatherman]

1983-84 was pretty D**n blocky.  The December cold wave was epic.

 

BTW you should say huge displaced Aleutian low.  It's not in the typical spot.  Just to muddy the waters more!  I expect the atmosphere will become more Ninaish when the MJO gets into the IO and or MC.

1983-84 wasn't particularly good in Socal. The fall was wet, but January onward was bone-dry.

[Phil]

The rule of thumb in SE Idaho is no sub-zero lows without snow-cover, at least in the Snake River Valley. I've seen plenty of positive single digits with no snow however. 1" depth works as well as 12" for this purpose. Of course in areas with strong cold air advection out of the arctic, such as the northern Plains or Canadian prairies sub-zero readings can occur with no snow cover. Such is not the case west of the Rockies outside of localized frost hollows at fairly high elevations.

 

I can always identify near zero or below because my nose hairs start to accrete some tiny ice crystals (via normal breathing) which produces a sort of "itchy" feeling in my nostrils.

No snowless subzero lows in SE Idaho? That's fascinating.

 

Even here in the swamp, at sea level, we've seen numerous subzero lows recently without any snowcover. As late as February/March, even. I can't imagine why SE ID couldn't pull that off with the extra latitude and elevation.

[snow_wizard]

Absolutely, although that can be said of any cold wave. Some westside locations had pretty incredible lows in December 1983, even with little to no snowcover. 

 

On the coast, Long Beach hit 7F after only 0.5" of snow that had fallen two days earlier. Raymond hit 3F after a light snowfall as well (0.05" melted precip, no snowfall data). Grayland hit 7F on bare ground. 

 

Seattle's Jackson Park station hit a ridiculous 2F with only 1" on the ground officially. Really impressive cold wave. 

 

I think that air mass was even colder than Dec 1990 in this area.  On that one I had plenty of snow and it dropped to zero exactly.  1983 dropped to 2 with no snow.

[wx_statman]

The rule of thumb in SE Idaho is no sub-zero lows without snow-cover, at least in the Snake River Valley. I've seen plenty of positive single digits with no snow however. 1" depth works as well as 12" for this purpose. Of course in areas with strong cold air advection out of the arctic, such as the northern Plains or Canadian prairies sub-zero readings can occur with no snow cover. Such is not the case west of the Rockies outside of localized frost hollows at fairly high elevations.

 

I can always identify near zero or below because my nose hairs start to accrete some tiny ice crystals (via normal breathing) which produces a sort of "itchy" feeling in my nostrils.

 

That makes sense logically. I never really thought about that. 

[snow_wizard]

No snowless subzero lows in SE Idaho? That's fascinating.

 

Even here in the swamp, at sea level, we've seen numerous subzero lows recently without any snowcover. As late as February/March, even. I can't imagine why SE ID couldn't pull that off with the extra latitude and elevation.

 

That is a bit surprising.  Most places in WA east of the Cascades can easily drop below zero with no snow cover except the southern part of the Basin, and even they can pull it off sometimes.

[snow_wizard]

Lots of really good analogs on the CPC site the last couple of days.  Seeing a lot from 1953 which was a really solid winter also.

[IbrChris]

No snowless subzero lows in SE Idaho? That's fascinating.

 

Even here in the swamp, at sea level, we've seen numerous subzero lows recently without any snowcover. As late as February/March, even. I can't imagine why SE ID couldn't pull that off with the extra latitude and elevation.

Probably because once the snow starts coming it usually sticks around until early spring. It doesn't tend to come and go. I lived there for a decade or so and I can't recall a Christmas that didn't have snow on the ground. Only a couple Thanksgivings without snow. Generally during the time of year one would expect sub-zero temps there also happens to be snowcover.

[Phil]

Probably because once the snow starts coming it usually sticks around until early spring. It doesn't tend to come and go. I lived there for a decade or so and I can't recall a Christmas that didn't have snow on the ground. Only a couple Thanksgivings without snow. Generally during the time of year one would expect sub-zero temps there also happens to be snowcover.

Ah, that makes sense.

[IbrChris]

Ah, that makes sense.

Granted the coldest it got while I lived there most winters was -15 to -20. Coldest airport temp was -29 back in Jan 2009 I believe.

[Phil]

Granted the coldest it got while I lived there most winters was -15 to -20. Coldest airport temp was -29 back in Jan 2009 I believe.

I've always been amazed at what a little snowcover can do to overnight lows. A few years back (IIRC) places in Oklahoma radiated down to like -25F or -30F after receiving just 6" of powder the previous day. Mind boggling.

 

Unfortunately that really doesn't happen here. Our biggest blasts are usually snowless and downsloping keeps things mixed. Best I've experienced was a dry, snowless -11F.

[OKwx2k4]

I've always been amazed at what a little snowcover can do to overnight lows. A few years back (IIRC) places in Oklahoma radiated down to like -25F or -30F after receiving just 6" of powder the previous day. Mind boggling.

 

Unfortunately that really doesn't happen here. Our biggest blasts are usually snowless and downsloping keeps things mixed. Best I've experienced was a dry, snowless -11F.

Yup. -31. Tied the state record from the 1930s. Most terrible night of work in my life. Truly amazing though.

[Brennan]

Best i've ever experiences is 9*f (12/22/08) and 10 (1/3/04) . When i was 3 months old it got down to 5*f on Lake Whatcom (2/1/89) only reason I know about this is because my Dad has it on camera. He's recording the yard covered in snow and all the 4 wheeling tracks abd says, "it's 9* right now, all the way up from 5* this morning."... nostalgia...anyways.... all had at least 3" snow cover. Coldest non snowcover low was I think 19 in December 2005 during a long inversion... can't remember how cold it got during 2009... overnight lows were mediocre in the North Sound though.

[westcoastexpat]

Best i've ever experiences is 9*f (12/22/08) and 10 (1/3/04) . When i was 3 months old it got down to 5*f on Lake Whatcom (2/1/89) only reason I know about this is because my Dad has it on camera. He's recording the yard covered in snow and all the 4 wheeling tracks abd says, "it's 9* right now, all the way up from 5* this morning."... nostalgia...anyways.... all had at least 3" snow cover. Coldest non snowcover low was I think 19 in December 2005 during a long inversion... can't remember how cold it got during 2009... overnight lows were mediocre in the North Sound though.

 

Coldest I've ever experienced was -20 F in the BC interior. Wind chill of -41 F. In wind sheltered areas it's really not bad--very refreshing. I've even done X-country skiing in temperatures that cold. But even the lightest wind can destroy it--it just stings. Best snowstorm of my life really isn't just one--but rather the series of snow storms in that one week in December 2008. I recall having 20" of snow IMBY at the height of it.

 

I still think the coldest, most unpleasant weather is a 33 F day in the PNW with rain and wind. That damp cold just cannot be avoided, no matter what you wear. On top of the disappointment that you were *this* close to frozen precip...

[Jesse]

Looking like another healthy addition to monthly rainfall totals today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yup. -31. Tied the state record from the 1930s. Most terrible night of work in my life. Truly amazing though.

 

Bartlesville and Nowata are great radiational cooling spots. Talequah is too. Usually they and Bville are the cold spots in Oklahoma on a clear night. When I was living there it was pretty common to have lows in the teens at Bville and Tulsa be in the upper 20s. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking like another healthy addition to monthly rainfall totals today.

 

About a half inch since midnight here. 

[BLI snowman]

PDX has an inch to go to reach their monthly record. I think they'll manage to squeak past it.

[stuffradio]

I'm only at 9.12" of rain this month, excluding anything I may have gotten overnight so far, which I don't think is anything much.

[Jesse]

PDX has an inch to go to reach their monthly record. I think they'll manage to squeak past it.

The fact that we might break a rainfall record makes the ridiculously mild overnight lows a bit more excusable. Still hard to believe that we are seeing the third consecutive October where PDX puts up a 50+ degree average low. That has to be unprecedented.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Coldest I've ever experienced was -20 F in the BC interior. Wind chill of -41 F. In wind sheltered areas it's really not bad--very refreshing. I've even done X-country skiing in temperatures that cold. But even the lightest wind can destroy it--it just stings. Best snowstorm of my life really isn't just one--but rather the series of snow storms in that one week in December 2008. I recall having 20" of snow IMBY at the height of it.

 

I still think the coldest, most unpleasant weather is a 33 F day in the PNW with rain and wind. That damp cold just cannot be avoided, no matter what you wear. On top of the disappointment that you were *this* close to frozen precip...

 

The coldest I've dealt with was in the -20's F in Western Montana, but that was not my most miserable experience.  My most miserable cold was helping with a cattle drive over Thanksgiving (my wife's family has a ranch there).  It was only in the single digits but there was a stiff wind blowing through the canyon we had to traverse.  I was lucky enough to be driving the follow truck (with the "cattle drive ahead" sign on the back).  Of course the guys on horseback had it alot worse that I did, but they also had proper clothing for the conditions, where I did not.  I also had to keep the windows down to hear they guys on horseback, and the heater did not really work.

 

The family house was built up from the original homestead, the bedroom we slept in was scabbed on and did not have a lot of insulation, or a heat source other than an electric oil heater.  With all the wind that trip I don't think the room warmed to more than 35-38 degrees.  My wife and I are both hot sleepers but that trip we wore socks, gloves, sweatshirt, sweat pants, piled under 2-3 thick blankets and still our butts off.  My mother in law told stories of waking up as a child with snow on her bed during blizzards (it would blow through gaps in the windows and walls.)  They've sealed things up better over the years but its still pretty d**n cold on those bedrooms.

 

The time we stayed there when it went into the -20's we stayed at a hotel, so we had a warm place to sleep.

[ShawniganLake]

October is still running a little below average here, thru the 24th. The rain today looks to move us into the top 5 for wettest but we will fall well short of the 2003 October record.

[BLI snowman]

The fact that we might break a rainfall record makes the ridiculously mild overnight lows a bit more excusable. Still hard to believe that we are seeing the third consecutive October where PDX puts up a 50+ degree average low. That has to be unprecedented.

 

PDX hasn't dropped below 41 in October since 2013. Definitely odd.

[Jesse]

PDX hasn't dropped below 41 in October since 2013. Definitely odd.

October is the new May.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows Friday and Sunday being basically dry for the area.     About as exciting as it gets right now.   Can't wait.  

[stuffradio]

October is the new May.

It has dropped to freezing here this month, so it's only May in October in PDX

[Timmy Supercell]

Today would be a great day for a personal station. Had a few gusts a bit after 11am that I thought would be strong enough to take down trees in the neighborhood.. stronger than anything else I've had so far this month. There's gotta be a spotter somewhere recording these.

 

If someone in the community reports trees downed I'll watch out for that. Easily stronger winds than 10/15 (even that day a tree was reported down near the lake).

 

KLMT is such a hit-miss station lately. Today they max out at 32. What a joke. I think I know what 30-40 sounds like by now.

[Jesse]

It has dropped to freezing here this month, so it's only May in October in PDX

You guys can get freezes in early May, historically.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is also much drier for Halloween for those with young kids.   

 

Also dry for Tuesday as well.   

 

That is 4 basically dry days in the next 6 per that run... go figure.   

[stuffradio]

You guys can get freezes in early May, historically.

It might have been before my time, I don't know. I do remember getting snow in April just a few years ago in the 2000's. We might have had freezing temps in May in the 90's, though I don't remember. In that case, October can be the new May in many ways!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is a nice run... cool interlude around Halloween and significantly less wet overall for the next 10 days.