October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

You guys did a lot better with that event. I had only about 1/2" of snow the day after thanksgiving 2014. I had 1.5" of snow the Tuesday before Thanksgiving last year, and then several lows in the teens later in the week. I actually had a pipe under the house break. 

 

We had a pipe break on Thanksgiving morning in 2010.   Cooked dinner with melted snow for our water source.   At least we had power.      

[stuffradio]

The moss on my front entry cement steps is really taking off! Much earlier than normal, I would say based on that we are going to be in for it 1990 style at least!!

You have a thing for Moss it seems, or the other way around.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here we go...Thanksgiving week last year... I believe it was the Tuesday before Thanksgiving.

 

[stuffradio]

Thanksgiving weekend in 2014 was more than just cool... twas a winter postcard in my area.  

 

Was that the year where Seattle was basically shut down and the entire system missed us up here? I remember something like that happened not too long ago, and we got totally shafted while you guys down there hit the jackpot. I was very sad.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was that the year where Seattle was basically shut down and the entire system missed us up here? I remember something like that happened not too long ago, and we got totally shafted while you guys down there hit the jackpot. I was very sad.

 

2010 is what you are thinking of

[Brennan]

We had a pipe break on Thanksgiving morning in 2010. Cooked dinner with melted snow for our water source. At least we had power.

snow slushies. #betterthan7/11

 

It's crazy to think Seattle recorded 5+ inches of rain in 1 calender day in October 2003. Take that day away and the month isn't all that spectacular statistically

[stuffradio]

It looks like 2011 could still be the last year we had a bone dry Halloween up here.

[snow_wizard]

Unfortuately that didn't work out for us after months like December 1933.

 

That is one of the huge exceptions.  Really no explanation for that winter.  It was as much an outlier for a Nina winter as 1968-69 was for a Nino winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

snow slushies. #betterthan7/11

 

It's crazy to think Seattle recorded 5+ inches of rain in 1 calender day in October 2003. Take that day away and the month isn't all that spectacular statistically

 

That is pretty amazing. I was playing baseball for the JUCO in Salem that year and we were in the midst of fall practices. I remember the really warm days and then the really heavy rain when the front finally sagged south. We were having an intersquad scrimmage and it was pouring, but it was still fairly warm. 

 

The cold air late in the month was nice, but down here 2002 had a much more impressively cold end to October. 

[snow_wizard]

snow slushies. #betterthan7/11

 

It's crazy to think Seattle recorded 5+ inches of rain in 1 calender day in October 2003. Take that day away and the month isn't all that spectacular statistically

 

That day was nuts though.  I was amazed as I watched the rain total up that day.

[snow_wizard]

That is pretty amazing. I was playing baseball for the JUCO in Salem that year and we were in the midst of fall practices. I remember the really warm days and then the really heavy rain when the front finally sagged south. We were having an intersquad scrimmage and it was pouring, but it was still fairly warm. 

 

The cold air late in the month was nice, but down here 2002 had a much more impressively cold end to October. 

 

2003 was a Fraser River event whereas 2002 was from the east.  2002 kind of sucked here.  The cold air was shallow and it was windy.

[stuffradio]

Here's a nice video of my backyard in the 2012 event. Can't believe I was breathing so heavily and uploaded it sideways. If I re-shot the video today, it would be unnoticeable compared to what it was like in 2012 (without the snow).

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2003 was a Fraser River event whereas 2002 was from the east.  2002 kind of sucked here.  The cold air was shallow and it was windy.

 

October 2002 was a very dry month here too. I think the complete lack of low level residual moisture probably had to help with radiational cooling too. 

 

Several Willamette Valley locations broke their all-time October record lows including Eugene. Some of these records were broken in October 2006.

 

Eastern Oregon was incredibly cold in October 2002. Seneca fell to -13, an all-time record for the month. 

[ShawniganLake]

Here's a nice video of my backyard in the 2012 event. Can't believe I was breathing so heavily and uploaded it sideways. If I re-shot the video today, it would be unnoticeable compared to what it was like in 2012 (without the snow).

 

I think I saw a Sasquatch in there somewhere.

[TT-SEA]

Here's a nice video of my backyard in the 2012 event. Can't believe I was breathing so heavily and uploaded it sideways. If I re-shot the video today, it would be unnoticeable compared to what it was like in 2012 (without the snow).

 

Your accent! So interesting that you just cross that border and everyone talks differently.

[ShawniganLake]

2010 is what you are thinking of

Big snowstorm on the island in November of 2010 too. Vancouver and the lower mainland got shafted

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Big snowstorm on the island in November of 2010 too. Vancouver and the lower mainland got shafted

 

We did not get a lot down here in the valley areas. I was living down in Silverton and we only got about 1/2" of snow. Up where I live now they did pretty well. About 8". 

[stuffradio]

Your accent! So interesting that you just cross that border and everyone talks differently.

No doot aboot it

[Jesse]

Another good slug of rain moving in. Some places could be within reach of their monthly record by morning.

[James Jones]

Your accent! So interesting that you just cross that border and everyone talks differently.

Do you talk like this?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vjB3wiZKAA#t=0m30s

[snow_wizard]

The thing I'm liking about a lot of the CPC analogs is the cold came in January those winters.

[Phil]

The thing I'm liking about a lot of the CPC analogs is the cold came in January those winters.

Lots of 1980s analogs.

[ShawniganLake]

We did not get a lot down here in the valley areas. I was living down in Silverton and we only got about 1/2" of snow. Up where I live now they did pretty well. About 8".

16" that month here but 12" of that fell on the night of the 19th.

[Jesse]

Halloween night is starting to look like it could be dry and somewhat chilly.

 

Our big party is Friday night, and that is looking dry now too.

[wx_statman]

I only looked at Snoqualmie Falls data in my Excel file.   

 

I guess it was not that bad... but the rest of the winter was a turd.

 

 

http://s14.postimg.org/vmc44ulm9/1954.png

 

I'm pretty sure the average weather weenie would take this month in a heartbeat. A week of cold and snow? That's a rarity in our climate! 

[snow_wizard]

Just for fun I rolled the 0z analogs forward to the best pattern of each winter.  Pretty nice composite!

 

 

[snow_wizard]

I'm pretty sure the average weather weenie would take this month in a heartbeat. A week of cold and snow? That's a rarity in our climate! 

 

It was actually closer to two weeks.

[stuffradio]

Poor American had no chance.

 

[snow_wizard]

I just noticed on the composite I posted there is a decent signal for a west based minus NAO.  Pretty intriguing.

[wx_statman]

It was actually closer to two weeks.

 

That was a great month in my opinion.

 

There were numerous impressive stats that month from around the region. Some of my favorites are the 46.6" of snow in Forks (single month record), the 36.0" that fell on Cushman Dam on 1/25 along with a depth of 58" that day (both all-time records), and the -19 at Yakima Airport on the 20th, which is only 2F from the monthly record of -21 in 1950. 

[TT-SEA]

Do you talk like this?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vjB3wiZKAA#t=0m30s

 

 

We used to have MN accents... that disappeared after a few years in CA.  Although we are both from the Twin Cities and the MN accent is much less noticeable there compared to the rural areas.  

 

We do have fun with our relatives when we go back though.  

 

And by the way... in that video they are dressed like its -20 but the road is wet meaning its probably in the 30s.    Most Minnesotans would not even be wearing a jacket with that weather... let alone have their faces covered with their hoods!   

[snow_wizard]

Big windstorm on the 6z GFS.  I can hear the groans at the NWS from here....

[snow_wizard]

1979 and 1992 showing up on the 6z analogs along with the ones on the 0z.  Hard to not be optimistic!

 

Rather notably these years represent the last two decently cold Januaries we've had here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty amazing that our warm streak continues with no real signs of abating. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another 0.42" of rain since midnight. 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty amazing that our warm streak continues with no real signs of abating. 

 

A bit of a cool interlude Sat through Tue or so.  Some places could have frost Halloween night.  Come November...let het torch!  Around mid November I would like to see a cooler zonal flow type regime set up though.  I'm sure Phil will be horrified by this idea.

[TT-SEA]

A bit of a cool interlude Sat through Tue or so.  Some places could have frost Halloween night.  Come November...let het torch!  Around mid November I would like to see a cooler zonal flow type regime set up though.  I'm sure Phil will be horrified by this idea.

 

 

00Z ECMWF showed a band of rain over us on Halloween night.   

[Phil]

A bit of a cool interlude Sat through Tue or so. Some places could have frost Halloween night. Come November...let het torch! Around mid November I would like to see a cooler zonal flow type regime set up though. I'm sure Phil will be horrified by this idea.

Lol, I sure would, based on what a +PNA/+EPO would be indicative of (tropical forcing wise). This isn't your typical coherent/entrenched niña winter regime where you can count on a return to the underlying background state. The background state itself is weak and subject to perturbation via intraseasonal forcing. We saw this occur during the second half of DJF 2012/13. To say I'm not worried about a destruction of the Niña base state (should this regime continue) would be a lie.

 

As long as that NPAC vortex breaks down in the second half of November (as it theoretically should, assuming the completion of the next EA cycle allowing for a restrengthening of the Walker Cell), I'll remain optimistic for you guys. However, if come Thanksgiving we're still pumping out the +PNA/+AAM integral under destructive tropical convective interference under a higher WHEM ratio, and/or if the Walker/Niña cell fails to recover to the initial background state following the ongoing perturbation, then I'm going to scale back my midwinter expectations.

[MossMan]

Looks like the PNA is thinking about taking a dive towards the minus territory around the second week of November...a white Thanksgiving? Yeah one can dream.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[Timmy Supercell]

Moderate/heavy rain this morning. I love it. The air smells so fresh.

 

I wish it did this the entire winter.

 

By the way, today could be the day that pushes the monthly rainfall total over 2014. Hopefully closer to record.