October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

No. distracted driving, driving while impaired, being scared to drive under conditions, or just simply not knowing how to drive is the reason. Can't blame it on the spray, viability for me was just fine in the rain yesterday.

 

Whatever. Decent rain slows traffic everywhere. A big reason is spray from the road. Most of those other reasons apply no matter what the weather.

[Front Ranger]

We speed the same speed up here no matter how hard it's raining. Is that smart? Depends... you could either argue it makes you guys smarter, or we are more used to rain driving, or both. I personally only slow down when it's torrential rain.

 

I think it's because you're driving in kilometers per hour.

[snow_wizard]

That looks horrific!

 

People are probably getting too hung up on one model.  Summer is way different than forecasting winter.

[snow_wizard]

It does but the good news is that Alaska looks to Bake, especially Western Alaska so that means lots of Blocking. I don't see how the PNW can't score at least one or two true/modified Arctic Blast this Winter with all that Blocking up in Alaska. 

 

I agree.  The forecast from that model doesn't teleconnect very well at all.  I think I see the light of where all of these ridiculous winter forecasts have been coming from.

[TT-SEA]

I agree.  The forecast from that model doesn't teleconnect very well at all.  I think I see the light of where all of these ridiculous winter forecasts have been coming from.

 

 

We can have one or two cold/snow events and still have a warmer than normal winter.    

 

You tell us how one good week can make a winter great in your book.   But these forecasts are not for one week.    Its by month and for the entire season.   

[Trainwreck]

Good pep talk coach. I know if you (Tim) keep pluggin, we can make it all workout the way you want it to. One week in a warm winter? Who could ask for anything more?

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is going for a pretty cool weekend with the high only near 50 on Sunday for the Puget Sound area.  In general the air mass is pretty cool for a while.  Perhaps more importantly pressure gradient swill be weak, which is always a plus for cool temps when the days get short.  Still looking like a shot at frost Halloween night.

[snow_wizard]

Good pep talk coach. I know if you (Tim) keep pluggin, we can make it all workout the way you want it to. One week in a warm winter? Who could ask for anything more?

 

He really gets hung up on this one week thing.  Some winters are better than that.

[luminen]

We speed the same speed up here no matter how hard it's raining. Is that smart? Depends... you could either argue it makes you guys smarter, or we are more used to rain driving, or both. I personally only slow down when it's torrential rain.

 

From my personal experience, most people in Colorado drive really slow in the rain whether it's light or heavy.

 

Here in the lower mainland, people drive pretty slowly as well whether it's raining or not. Maybe I just drive too fast. 

 

Today the weather has been 10C/50F and raining all day. The past hour or so has been pretty torrential, despite not showing up on the radar. Living in an area that sees significant orographic precipitation has been interesting so far. 

[snow_wizard]

For those keeping score Nino 3.4 is almost down to -1.0 again and falling like a rock.  The subsurface cold supply looks quite robust so a decent Nina is still possible.

[TT-SEA]

He really gets hung up on this one week thing.  Some winters are better than that.

 

 

Not the point.   You are mocking the 'ridiculous' winter forecasts but a warmer than normal winter does not mean there cannot be some memorable events or even a cold month.   

[TT-SEA]

For those keeping score Nino 3.4 is almost down to -1.0 again and falling like a rock.  The subsurface cold supply looks quite robust so a decent Nina is still possible.

 

 

Looks like areas of warming and cooling over the last week.   

 

The PDO will be up from September to October.   

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

[stuffradio]

I think it's because you're driving in kilometers per hour.

My 1 Gallon of Milk is also 3.785 Litres.

 

From my personal experience, most people in Colorado drive really slow in the rain whether it's light or heavy.

 

Here in the lower mainland, people drive pretty slowly as well whether it's raining or not. Maybe I just drive too fast. 

 

Today the weather has been 10C/50F and raining all day. The past hour or so has been pretty torrential, despite not showing up on the radar. Living in an area that sees significant orographic precipitation has been interesting so far. 

There are people that drive slowly in the rain here too, but most people drive normally, if not quickly where I drive in the rain.

[Deweydog]

Looks like areas of warming and cooling over the last week.

 

The PDO will be up from September to October.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

I think the PDO # will come in about the same as September as there seems to be some kind of lag in the readings. No doubt it's on the rise at the moment though, just like Flatiron said it would.

[TT-SEA]

I think the PDO # will come in about the same as September as there seems to be some kind of lag in the readings. No doubt it's on the rise at the moment though, just like Flatiron said it would.

 

 

ENSO has been "dropping like a rock" more times than I can count since last spring.   Should be around -10 now.  

 

Can we say the PDO is currently sky rocketing up to the heavens right now?    

 

Neither is true of course.

[HighlandExperience]

Lolz.

 

"A few weeks" in MN/SD/WI? Would be funnier if it the map actually had some resemblance to climo.

 

That map is a joke.

 

Plus that whole area shaded green in SW BC and SE Alaska is just mountains. 

[Weather101]

He really gets hung up on this one week thing. Some winters are better than that.

He's right lol facts are facts. Our winter can be a week of snow and cold or maybe two. We don't get months of cold and snow and never will. We can get 2 snowstorms this year and it can be warmer then normal so those forecasts would verify. I think he just meant it like that.

[Bryant]

ENSO has been "dropping like a rock" more times than I can count since last spring. Should be around -10 now.

 

Can we say the PDO is currently sky rocketing up to the heavens right now?

 

Neither is true of course.

You love your mockery!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 15.90" on the month. 

[TT-SEA]

You love your mockery!

 

Its a valid point actually.   

[ShawniganLake]

Up to 15.90" on the month.

What's your average

[ShawniganLake]

ENSO has been "dropping like a rock" more times than I can count since last spring. Should be around -10 now.

 

Can we say the PDO is currently sky rocketing up to the heavens right now?

 

Neither is true of course.

I don't know. Seemed like there was plenty of talk about the warm spike during the second half of September. Seems like a good chance 3.4 drops below -1.0C for the first time this season.

[TT-SEA]

I don't know. Seemed like there was plenty of talk about the warm spike during the second half of September. Seems like a good chance 3.4 drops below -1.0C for the first time this season.

 

 

Nahh... that was a tiny blip.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What's your average

 

6.29"

[TT-SEA]

6.29"

 

Impressive total this month.

[Phil]

That map is a joke.

 

Plus that whole area shaded green in SW BC and SE Alaska is just mountains.

I know. I'm just a nerd.

[ShawniganLake]

6.29"

Wow. That 15.9" is pretty crazy then.

[snow_wizard]

He's right lol facts are facts. Our winter can be a week of snow and cold or maybe two. We don't get months of cold and snow and never will. We can get 2 snowstorms this year and it can be warmer then normal so those forecasts would verify. I think he just meant it like that.

 

There have been several winters that say you are wrong.  You need to look at the history a bit more closely.  The only winter we've had months of cold and snow was 1861-62, but we have had several with many weeks.

 

I just hate how he downplays winters that most on the forum would consider good.  Just a wet blanket if you ask me.

[TT-SEA]

there have been several winters that say you are wrong.  You need to look at the history a bit more closely.  The only winter we've had months of cold and snow was 1861-62, but we have had several with weeks.

 

 

Missing the point entirely again.     Those ''ridiculous" forecasts could verify and we still have one or two memorable cold/snow events and call it a great winter.  

[snow_wizard]

I'll let people decide if this is dropping like a rock or not.  Straight down would certainly qualify IMO.  I am D**n sick of people implying I'm making up.  I pride myself in doing deep research on this stuff.

 

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I imagine in most of this region there's been more rain in this past month than the past 6 perhaps even 7 month combined. Not a particularly uncommon occurrence in our climate, but an interesting thought.

[snow_wizard]

I imagine in most of this region there's been more rain in this past month than the past 6 perhaps even 7 month combined. Not a particularly uncommon occurrence in our climate, but an interesting thought.

 

This October has been extraordinary.  No doubt about it.  Going down as historically wet from N. Cal to Southern BC.

[TT-SEA]

I'll let people decide if this is dropping like a rock or not.  Straight down would certainly qualify IMO.  I am D**n sick of people implying I'm making s**t up.  I pride myself in doing deep research on this stuff.

 

 

Then report the upward periods as sky rocketing if you want to call the down periods as dropping like a rock.   Because all you report is that its dropping like a rock so it should be the strongest Nina ever recorded by this point.   

 

Again... this is the big picture change over the last 7 days.   Not seeing this massive cooling.    

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

[bainbridgekid]

Wettest October ever and we've had exactly one day of indoor recess.

 

My nieces probably would have had 20 in LA.

[Phil]

I'll let people decide if this is dropping like a rock or not. Straight down would certainly qualify IMO. I am D**n sick of people implying I'm making s**t up. I pride myself in doing deep research on this stuff.

I didn't say you were making anything up. The SSTs can/will fluctuate wildly on short timescales, though, sometimes simply due to fluid inertial processes unrelated to anything ongoing atmospherically. Remember that big spike in ENSO SSTAs back in September? Same thing, just on a much larger scale. Didn't really mean anything, in hindsight, but was still unusual enough to catch my attention.

 

Right now, the lower frequency atmospheric convective/circulatory biases associated with La Niña are very weak and weakening. This is what matters IMO. The evidence of this is obvious in the various reflective indices we know and love, whether it be the prolonged -SOI bias, the +AAM integral since late September, or the uninterrupted +PNA regime that's been dominating for several weeks now.

 

Given the weak nature of the background state, it's something that should be monitored IMO. It's not guaranteed to survive continued destructive interference like this.

[TT-SEA]

1983 and 2001 keep showing up as the top analogs to this upcoming pattern.   

[Bryant]

Then report the upward periods as sky rocketing if you want to call the down periods as dropping like a rock. Because all you report is that its dropping like a rock so it should be the strongest Nina ever recorded by this point.

 

Again... this is the big picture change over the last 7 days. Not seeing this massive cooling.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

http://i.imgur.com/FoOOwjZ.jpg

 

Your map is not a very good interpretation of the previous 7 days. You can't tell him to stop only pointing out the cold when you only point out the warm

[Phil]

1983 and 2001 keep showing up as the top analogs to this upcoming pattern.

I don't see much similarity with 2001 or 1981, both of which keep popping up. However, 1983 is another story.

[TT-SEA]

http://i.imgur.com/FoOOwjZ.jpg

 

Your map is not a very good interpretation of the previous 7 days. You can't tell him to stop only pointing out thenl cold when you only point out the warm

 

 

I point out cold.   There has been 4 days below normal this month.     Its been mostly warm.  

 

I did not draw that map.   Phil linked me to it last spring and told me to use.   He said its the best one.   So I use it.  

[TT-SEA]

1983 and 2001 keep showing up as the top analogs to this upcoming pattern.   

 

Is this year progressing faster than 1983?  

 

October was pretty decent here in 1983 with lots of dry days.   There has been about 12 times as much rain here this October compared to 1983.   This year we have had November in October... and a very wet November in October.