October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

I don't know, just today driving from Stanwood to Everett and back on this rainy day for work I could not believe how many people I saw either slamming on their brakes in the carpool lane when they had 60 car lengths between them and person in front of them only because someone in the far right lane put their brakes on. Or the moron doing 45 in the middle lane with the wipers on high when it was just a typical rainfall rate, or the person doing 90 and swerving between lanes with no signals...it's sad just how people in this state cannot drive in the rain. However in Minnesota the last time we were visiting family when my uncle picked us up we drove right through a severe T Storm and everyone on the freeway all kept a constant speed, nobody slammed on their brakes, and the drive went smoothly even with flashes of lightning every 5 seconds. This state just has more horrible drivers than most others for whatever reason.

 

I don't necessarily think the Seattle area has more horrible drivers than anywhere else. I think much of it has more to do with the geography of our hwys.  Most major cities in the midwest have freeways that radiate in all directions in a circular type pattern.

 

Seattle unfortunately is confined to mostly north south orientation, and there is no room to really build a good grid to disperse traffic (for better or worse). 

[MossMan]

After??

 

Well before actually.

First big snowstorm threat will be 10 times worse than when the apocalypse windstorm was supposed to slam us in terms of people freaking out...it's going to be fun to watch!

[HighlandExperience]

Private sector is where it's at.

 

What percent of meteorologist get hired in the private sector making big bucks? 

[Phil]

Speaking of bad drivers, I have a good pre-halloween horror story to share. Last winter we had ~1/2" of snow fall during the evening commute while temps were in the low teens (a few days before the big blizzard). Stuck to all the pavement.

 

Result: Took me 10hrs to get home from class, which was just under a 5 mile drive. Over 40 wrecks within that 5 mile radius. Left class at 2pm, got home at 1230AM.

[HighlandExperience]

Private sector is where it's at.

 

I should add that in most places GS 9 to GS 12 tops out around 90K something a year. So ya not a bad job at all. 

[crf450ish]

I don't necessarily think the Seattle area has more horrible drivers than anywhere else. I think much of it has more to do with the geography of our hwys.  Most major cities in the midwest have freeways that radiate in all directions in a circular type pattern.

 

Seattle unfortunately is confined to mostly north south orientation, and there is no room to really build a good grid to disperse traffic (for better or worse). 

Thats exactly right. Look at the bottleneck at the Convention center. That is the main culprit for the DAILY traffic nightmares heading southbound on I-5....

[MossMan]

And going back to posts from earlier today...the coldest temp I have experienced was -15F in Moses Lake several years ago...now that was something else!

[Phil]

What percent of meteorologist get hired in the private sector making big bucks?

I don't know, generally senior researchers, lead meteorologists, and those with forecasting experience in general seem to rake in the most money, I think.

 

I'd love to make six figures doing what I love. As Tim said, it wouldn't even be a job really. That said I think I'd enjoy an operational forecaster's position @ the local NWS more than anything, which would start out at under 50K/yr.

 

Before I can even begin dreaming, though, I'll need to pass topology (flunked it last year) and graduate with the necessary degrees. It's been a lot of work, and I have much more yet to learn. Hope to obtain my PhD by 2022.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One of the occasional posters on here has told me what he makes in the private sector. It is a decent salary. He gets a pretty good benefits and retirement package too. That would be one of the benefits of working in the public sector. The benefits. One of my employees is leaving to go work for the state. He'll make about $7500 less a year, but will make that up with the quality of health insurance for his family (He is married with a 3rd child on the way.), plus he'll have a solid pension plan, which we don't offer. Often benefits make up for a reduction in salary. 

[crf450ish]

And going back to posts from earlier today...the coldest temp I have experienced was -15F in Moses Lake several years ago...now that was something else!

I dont recall the actual coldest temp I've experienced but I am guessing it was in the same range as yours....I remember however having a hard time breathing and my eyeballs hurt like hell. I was working outside all day (welding) and still had a hard time coping. It was Williston, North Dakota in the late fall of 2013. Never again will I accept a job where I have to subject myself to such brutal weather. Nope. I could have lost my toes, for real. I even had bunny boots on...but standing in one position not moving for up to 30 mins at a time is unacceptable in that kind of weather. I have mad respect for those roughnecks out there doing the daily grind. A superintendent for Halliburton told me he lost 3 of his toes from frost bite in the 80's when working in Canada. In my mind, theres a comes a point where ones health trumps financial gain....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I often wonder if I would enjoy weather as much if it was my job. Maybe I would. The funny thing is I never even considered it. I never really considered anything. I got lucky to stumble into something I was good at and can make a difference, as well as a livable income. If I could change one thing about my earlier self I would have been less invested in sports and more invested in my own future. But it turned out alright. 

[TT-SEA]

I dont recall the actual coldest temp I've experienced but I am guessing it was in the same range as yours....I remember however having a hard time breathing and my eyeballs hurt like hell. I was working outside all day (welding) and still had a hard time coping. It was Williston, North Dakota in the late fall of 2013. Never again will I accept a job where I have to subject myself to such brutal weather. Nope. I could have lost my toes, for real. I even had bunny boots on...but standing in one position not moving for up to 30 mins at a time is unacceptable in that kind of weather. I have mad respect for those roughnecks out there doing the daily grind. A superintendent for Halliburton told me he lost 3 of his toes from frost bite in the 80's when working in Canada. In my mind, theres a comes a point where ones health trumps financial gain....

 

 

Wow.... that is brutal.     Western ND is insane for cold and wind.   Nothing but wide open spaces and nothing to stop the cold air from coming straight down from the arctic on a stiff wind.

[TT-SEA]

I often wonder if I would enjoy weather as much if it was my job. Maybe I would. The funny thing is I never even considered it. I never really considered anything. I got lucky to stumble into something I was good at and can make a difference, as well as a livable income. If I could change one thing about my earlier self I would have been less invested in sports and more invested in my own future. But it turned out alright. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 15.27" of rain on the month. 12 days now this month with over half an inch of rain. 

[crf450ish]

Wow.... that is brutal.     Western ND is insane for cold and wind.   Nothing but wide open spaces and nothing to stop the cold air from coming straight down from the arctic on a stiff wind.

What amazed me more than anything is the lightning in the late summer/ early fall.  It was really dramatic and in your face. Like having a front row seat to the best fireworks show in the world. Extremely loud at times also. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

It sounds silly, but I really didn't. I got good grades, I actually won the departmental award for being the "student of the year" my senior year in college, but I was pretty rudderless. My fall back was probably coaching and teaching, but my heart was not in it. The last thing the world needed was another teacher who was just in it to get summers off. We need more teachers like "BainbridgeKid" that guy is passionate about what he does and that is awesome! 

[TT-SEA]

It sounds silly, but I really didn't. I got good grades, I actually won the departmental award for being the "student of the year" my senior year in college, but I was pretty rudderless. My fall back was probably coaching and teaching, but my heart was not in it. The last thing the world needed was another teacher who was just in it to get summers off. We need more teachers like "BainbridgeKid" that guy is passionate about what he does and that is awesome! 

 

 

So true... and talk about a profession that is not fairly compensated.     

[epiceast]

One of the occasional posters on here has told me what he makes in the private sector. It is a decent salary. He gets a pretty good benefits and retirement package too. That would be one of the benefits of working in the public sector. The benefits. One of my employees is leaving to go work for the state. He'll make about $7500 less a year, but will make that up with the quality of health insurance for his family (He is married with a 3rd child on the way.), plus he'll have a solid pension plan, which we don't offer. Often benefits make up for a reduction in salary. 

Federal pension plans are not a good deal like state ones are. So I don't think the mets are losing out much in benefits by working in the private sector like state workers would.

[TT-SEA]

Interesting note from SEA NWS:

 

CLIMATE...Record October rainfall for Seattle is 8.96 inches set
in 2003. That month had the daily record 5.02 inches day on October
20th. Seattle has recorded roughly 8.76 inches so far this month (up
through 8 PM PDT today) so it will take another 0.21 inches to break
the record. Months with 9 inches or more of rain have rarely
happened in Seattle. Even in the wettest month of the year,
November, it has occurred only nine times in 71 years of records (13
percent of the time ). Other months where 9 inches or more has been
recorded, December and January five times, and February and March
once. Felton/SMR 

 

 

So that means this month will be in the top 20 all-time wettest months ever.    There are approximately 864 months in the historical record at SEA.     

 

Impressive month.     And a general continuation of an extremely wet decade here.

[snow_wizard]

The moss on my front entry cement steps is really taking off! Much earlier than normal, I would say based on that we are going to be in for it 1990 style at least!!

 

For rainfall this is very 1990ish.  I have a feeling Nov is going to be a soaker also.  I have a funny feeling there's going to be another very real windstorm threat coming up.

[snow_wizard]

And going back to posts from earlier today...the coldest temp I have experienced was -15F in Moses Lake several years ago...now that was something else!

 

I lived near Cle Elum one winter and it dropped to -11.  You can definitely feel the inside of your nose freeze when you breath at that temp.  Pretty mind blowing there were winters in the past where the Western lowlands achieved temps like that.

[Timmy]

Interesting note from SEA NWS:

 

CLIMATE...Record October rainfall for Seattle is 8.96 inches set

in 2003. That month had the daily record 5.02 inches day on October

20th. Seattle has recorded roughly 8.76 inches so far this month (up

through 8 PM PDT today) so it will take another 0.21 inches to break

the record. Months with 9 inches or more of rain have rarely

happened in Seattle. Even in the wettest month of the year,

November, it has occurred only nine times in 71 years of records (13

percent of the time ). Other months where 9 inches or more has been

recorded, December and January five times, and February and March

once. Felton/SMR 

 

 

So that means this month will be in the top 20 all-time wettest months ever.    There are approximately 864 months in the historical record at SEA.     

 

Impressive month.     And a general continuation of an extremely wet decade here.

Glad I got a new roof this last spring. After last winter revealed its sad state

[jcmcgaffey]

Federal pension plans are not a good deal like state ones are. So I don't think the mets are losing out much in benefits by working in the private sector like state workers would.

I started out pursuing meteorology/atmospheric sciences at UW and during my 3rd year realized how few positions there were in the industry and few decent salaries and decided to switch majors to construction management. I always thought of it similar to the liberal arts but not as extreme. For every one person who makes it big there are a ton more who end up doing it as a hobby and have to pursue another career to stay financially stable.

[crf450ish]

Interesting note from SEA NWS:

 

CLIMATE...Record October rainfall for Seattle is 8.96 inches set

in 2003. That month had the daily record 5.02 inches day on October

20th. Seattle has recorded roughly 8.76 inches so far this month (up

through 8 PM PDT today) so it will take another 0.21 inches to break

the record. Months with 9 inches or more of rain have rarely

happened in Seattle. Even in the wettest month of the year,

November, it has occurred only nine times in 71 years of records (13

percent of the time ). Other months where 9 inches or more has been

recorded, December and January five times, and February and March

once. Felton/SMR 

 

 

So that means this month will be in the top 20 all-time wettest months ever.    There are approximately 864 months in the historical record at SEA.     

 

Impressive month.     And a general continuation of an extremely wet decade here.

Now, I am not being a smart** here but I think snow wizard (sorry, don't know him well enough to go on a first name basis) is going to really like this. I start my comment with what I did because I am trying to not let the atmosphere of the prior discussion in this forum precede my comment. I just believe in the power of analogs as well as his enthusiasm. 

 

The more I learn & read, the more I am inclined to believe this winter is going to deliver. 

[TT-SEA]

Now, I am not being a smart** here but I think snow wizard (sorry, don't know him well enough to go on a first name basis) is going to really like this. I start my comment with what I did because I am trying to not let the atmosphere of the prior discussion in this forum precede my comment. I just believe in the power of analogs as well as his enthusiasm. 

 

The more I learn & read, the more I am inclined to believe this winter is going to deliver. 

 

 

I feel like cold and snow are coming based on the extreme nature of the rain this month... just not sure when.      

[snow_wizard]

Interesting note from SEA NWS:

 

CLIMATE...Record October rainfall for Seattle is 8.96 inches set

in 2003. That month had the daily record 5.02 inches day on October

20th. Seattle has recorded roughly 8.76 inches so far this month (up

through 8 PM PDT today) so it will take another 0.21 inches to break

the record. Months with 9 inches or more of rain have rarely

happened in Seattle. Even in the wettest month of the year,

November, it has occurred only nine times in 71 years of records (13

percent of the time ). Other months where 9 inches or more has been

recorded, December and January five times, and February and March

once. Felton/SMR 

 

 

So that means this month will be in the top 20 all-time wettest months ever.    There are approximately 864 months in the historical record at SEA.     

 

Impressive month.     And a general continuation of an extremely wet decade here.

 

As I mentioned earlier it appears highly likely this will be the wettest October at least back to 1850.  You start talking about a monthly record over that long of a period it's truly remarkable.  Fort Steilacom had a whopping 18 inches of rain Nov 1853 so it can get a whole lot worse.

[crf450ish]

As I mentioned earlier it appears highly likely this will be the wettest October at least back to 1850.  You start talking about a monthly record over that long of a period it's truly remarkable.  Fort Steilacom had a whopping 18 inches of rain Nov 1853 so it can get a whole lot worse.

I'm excited. 

[snow_wizard]

Now, I am not being a smart** here but I think snow wizard (sorry, don't know him well enough to go on a first name basis) is going to really like this. I start my comment with what I did because I am trying to not let the atmosphere of the prior discussion in this forum precede my comment. I just believe in the power of analogs as well as his enthusiasm. 

 

The more I learn & read, the more I am inclined to believe this winter is going to deliver. 

 

There are multiple good signs this season so I'm optimistic.

[snow_wizard]

I'm excited. 

 

You might get to see some -20s type cold this winter.  That would be interesting for sure.

[HighlandExperience]

Federal pension plans are not a good deal like state ones are. So I don't think the mets are losing out much in benefits by working in the private sector like state workers would.

They are a very good deal considering not many employers even offer defined pension benefits anymore. If you are making six figures as a senior scientist at NOAA you will be taking home 30k a year for the rest of your life at retirement plus social security plus whatever else you have invested. You are easily looking at an extra 750k in benefits not dependent on market forces.

 

Even better if you have military service on top of it. If someone is serious about forecasting I'd highly recommend the Air Force as a weather specialist. You would have a big leg up in federal hiring.

 

As someone else noted most meteorology majors can't even find good jobs in this field.

[TT-SEA]

As I mentioned earlier it appears highly likely this will be the wettest October at least back to 1850.  You start talking about a monthly record over that long of a period it's truly remarkable.  Fort Steilacom had a whopping 18 inches of rain Nov 1853 so it can get a whole lot worse.

 

 

Not really worse... its rained almost all month.   Just rains harder at times in the even wetter months.     

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the CFS continues to advertise crazy a$$ blocking this winter.  It's shaky on placement, but the theme is unmistakable.

[Phil]

I feel like cold and snow are coming based on the extreme nature of the rain this month... just not sure when.

Since summer I've had a weird, persistent hunch that this winter will to do something incredible in January and/or February, somewhere in the country. No scientific backing at all, just a weird feeling based on the unprecedented nature of the pattern progressions since last February.

 

I've probably spent thousands of hours monitoring the state and progressions of the climate system, and I cannot recall behavior quite like this. Not even in the ancient analog years.

[BLI snowman]

I feel like cold and snow are coming based on the extreme nature of the rain this month... just not sure when.      

 

Unfortuately that didn't work out for us after months like December 1933.

[Phil]

Unprecedented corruption of the QBO, deepest October -AO on record, deepest yearly -IOD in (at least) the satellite era, most active EPAC hurricane season on record through July (then it shuts off for the least active A/S/O on record), etc..

 

Just has that feel to it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FWIW the CFS continues to advertise crazy a$$ blocking this winter.  It's shaky on placement, but the theme is unmistakable.

 

The last run of the CFS I saw looked dry and pretty cool for the week of Thanksgiving. That would be welcome. Of course we have had 3 cool Thanksgiving weekends in a row. 

[jcmcgaffey]

Boy that little tropical stream has just ebbed and flowed perfectly over Seattle all day today. I didn't get a chance to look at the models recently but I don't recall the models putting it over us all day. I think it was supposed to stay down south and move east. Even this morning forecasters were thinking Seattle would have between .25-.5 inches of rain.

[TT-SEA]

The last run of the CFS I saw looked dry and pretty cool for the week of Thanksgiving. That would be welcome. Of course we have had 3 cool Thanksgiving weekends in a row. 

 

 

Thanksgiving weekend in 2014 was more than just cool... twas a winter postcard in my area.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Boy that little tropical stream has just ebbed and flowed perfectly over Seattle all day today. I didn't get a chance to look at the models recently but I don't recall the models putting it over us all day. I think it was supposed to stay down south and move east. Even this morning forecasters were thinking Seattle would have between .25-.5 inches of rain.

 

 

I did not pay attention either... looked at the HRRR this morning and was surprised to see it showed it sitting over us until tomorrow morning.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thanksgiving weekend in 2014 was more than just cool... twas a winter postcard in my area.  

 

 

You guys did a lot better with that event. I had only about 1/2" of snow the day after thanksgiving 2014. I had 1.5" of snow the Tuesday before Thanksgiving last year, and then several lows in the teens later in the week. I actually had a pipe under the house break. We were all bundled up at the Civil War game the day after Thanksgiving last year, it was something like 44/19 at EUG that day...Good memories...Back when Oregon was not a complete joke at football...lol