October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[bainbridgekid]

Wouldn't it be fun if we got paid for our time on this forum discussing weather?   

 

None of us would work a day in our lives if we were paid to watch the weather.     Its not work if you have a passion for what you do.   

This is why I teach. Doesn't feel like work at all.

 

I thought very seriously about switching to Atmospheric Sciences in college, but decided I love teaching way too much to give it up. It was a good call since I still get to analyze weather as much as I want in my free time while still getting paid to do what I love during the day.

[Tundra]

The NCAR_CESM did good this Summer and was labeled the "King". Here is what it currently thinks will happen each month from November to February.

 

http://i.imgur.com/ULPfvkm.png

http://i.imgur.com/52KhqLV.png

http://i.imgur.com/U0I4Ekd.png

http://i.imgur.com/sw8MHVu.png

 

December does not look good at all for an Arctic Blast. It looks like January will be our best chance for an Arctic Blast as the Midwest looks to take the brunt of the Arctic air. A slight shift West puts us into Arctic air. Alaska looks warm throughout Winter so there should be no shortage of Blocking.

[MossMan]

The NCAR_CESM did good this Summer and was labeled the "King". Here is what it currently thinks will happen each month from November to February.

 

http://i.imgur.com/ULPfvkm.png

http://i.imgur.com/52KhqLV.png

http://i.imgur.com/U0I4Ekd.png

http://i.imgur.com/sw8MHVu.png

 

December does not look good at all for an Arctic Blast. It looks like January will be our best chance for an Arctic Blast as the Midwest looks to take the brunt of the Arctic air. A slight shift West puts us into Arctic air. Alaska looks warm throughout Winter so there should be no shortage of Blocking.

That looks horrific!

[Guest happ]

That looks horrific!

 

I agree wholeheartedly!

[ShawniganLake]

That looks horrific!

I always allow all of my seasonal expectations to hinge on the N_asCar model. 

[Tundra]

That looks horrific!

I agree wholeheartedly!

 

It does but the good news is that Alaska looks to Bake, especially Western Alaska so that means lots of Blocking. I don't see how the PNW can't score at least one or two true/modified Arctic Blast this Winter with all that Blocking up in Alaska. 

[Jesse]

Is it too early for Mark to make the stick a fork in winter post?

[ShawniganLake]

Joe bastardi used 50-51 as a possible analogue. Watch out for some March craziness next spring.

[Phil]

Haha

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BFEFA809-CF9C-470B-99C1-94C116BA46EE_zpsbzlqtpts.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Haha

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BFEFA809-CF9C-470B-99C1-94C116BA46EE_zpsbzlqtpts.jpg

 

 

Sums it up perfectly.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Can't believe KLMT only picked up 0.09" this entire morning. Seemed like more than a quarter inch fell at my place. At times the rain got heavy. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Haha

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BFEFA809-CF9C-470B-99C1-94C116BA46EE_zpsbzlqtpts.jpg

 

That is pretty funny. But no skiing in OR/WA? Last year there was more than plenty. lol

[HighlandExperience]

That looks horrific!

 

I don't like that map. 

[Abbotsford_wx]

I've only gotten .38" of rain in the last six days. Just a trace so far today.

 

The first half of the month was very wet, but it won't come close to 2003. We're currently at just over 9", and we'd need over 14" to beat 2003.

[chinook]

The symbol at the center of the plains states emoji looks like a Japanese "tsu."  Or am I reading way too much into it?

 

Oh, and yes, Nevada is noted primarily for its winter skiing.

 

 

i think it means "who knows".  And yes you are taking the map to literal in other areas.  

[Weather101]

i think it means "who knows". And yes you are taking the map to literal in other areas.

Yeah who knows or " "who cares"

[Jesse]

The symbol at the center of the plains states emoji looks like a Japanese "tsu." Or am I reading way too much into it?

 

Oh, and yes, Nevada is noted primarily for its winter skiing.

Oregon and Washington should probably be in the "At least there's skiing" category.

 

But only so much you can expect from a map you would probably see on your great Aunt's Facebook feed.

[Weather101]

Oregon and Washington should probably be in the "At least there's skiing" category.

 

But only so much you can expect from a map you would probably see on your great Aunt's Facebook feed.

I found the map kinda funny tho haha

[Deweydog]

I found the map kinda funny tho haha

Tongue in cheek winter forecasts in late October are NEVER funny.

[Jesse]

I found the map kinda funny tho haha

It was kind of funny. And accurate in a glass half empty sort of way.

[stuffradio]

Tongue in cheek winter forecasts in late October are NEVER funny.

It's serious business. We should put them on trial for crimes against humanity.

[Jesse]

It's serious business. We should put them on trial for crimes against humanity.

Crimes against climatology would be more fitting.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a perfect representation of climatology actually.

[Deweydog]

Sunbreak!

[Front Ranger]

I'm kind of surprised nobody has mentioned the fact we are going to have cross polar flow setting up soon. I've never seen that type of a block in October before. Right up to the pole and beyond.

I believe 2009 had a somewhat similar block.

[Front Ranger]

Traffic grinds to a halt here almost every time it rains. Rain. In Seattle.

Same everywhere. Spray on the highway significantly affects visibility.

[Bryant]

From one of the top forecasters in my opinion... no way to know what to expect at this point

[Jesse]

Sunbreak!

PDX's first sub-59 of the season *could* be in jeopardy.

[MossMan]

Same everywhere. Spray on the highway significantly affects visibility.

No. distracted driving, driving while impaired, being scared to drive under conditions, or just simply not knowing how to drive is the reason. Can't blame it on the spray, viability for me was just fine in the rain yesterday.

[stuffradio]

Same everywhere. Spray on the highway significantly affects visibility.

We speed the same speed up here no matter how hard it's raining. Is that smart? Depends... you could either argue it makes you guys smarter, or we are more used to rain driving, or both. I personally only slow down when it's torrential rain.

[Jesse]

No. distracted driving, driving while impaired, being scared to drive under conditions, or just simply not knowing how to drive is the reason. Can't blame it on the spray, viability for me was just fine in the rain yesterday.

Do you think other parts of the country lack the issues you listed?

 

I've always noticed a theme for people to think the drivers from wherever they are from are the worst drivers. Human nature.

[Bryant]

Do you think other parts of the country lack the issues you listed?

I've always noticed a theme for people to think the drivers from wherever they are from are the worst drivers. Human nature.

D**n Canadian drivers....

[Deweydog]

Do you think other parts of the country lack the issues you listed?

 

I've always noticed a theme for people to think the drivers from wherever they are from are the worst drivers. Human nature.

This is absolutely true, although it just happens some areas have a noticeanly higher Asian-American population. Horrible drivers, bless their hearts.

[ShawniganLake]

I've only gotten .38" of rain in the last six days. Just a trace so far today.

 

The first half of the month was very wet, but it won't come close to 2003. We're currently at just over 9", and we'd need over 14" to beat 2003.

I've had more than .38" today. Shawnigan lake will likely end up in the top 3 wettest Octobers but 2003 will remain #1 by a wide margin.

[stuffradio]

Breaking 2016/17 winter forecast news.

 

[Brennan]

How many years until everyone is driving tesla with autopilot?

[Jesse]

D**n Canadian drivers....

I should have said drivers from where they are and/or directly neighboring states/countries.

[Deweydog]

How many years until everyone is driving tesla with autopilot?

It'll be a cold day in January before you get me behind the wheel of one of those.

[stuffradio]

It'll be a cold day in January before you get me behind the wheel of one of those.

Great, that means it will happen this year!

[Phil]

Breaking 2016/17 winter forecast news.

 

Lolz.

 

"A few weeks" in MN/SD/WI? Would be funnier if it the map actually had some resemblance to climo.