October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Either way, this year looks nothing like 2008 so far, so I don't think it matters anyway.

 

October 2008:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-10/5F387856-87EF-4C1E-8EC7-46195AA560BD_zpslcpofmwk.gif

 

October 2016:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-10/86FFDEF2-1BA5-421B-8B56-9B62E054675A_zps1yrinblh.gif

[wx_statman]

Were there any Arctic blasts in January of 2009? I think the idea expressed by the aforementioned correlations holds true, in that when both October and November run +PNA averages, the following Januaries are very unlikely to be noteworthy, with a few "reasonably decent" ones being the best offerings in a sea of bad apples.

 

This relation holds true all the way back into the early/mid 20th century.

 

Nothing major, just two modified Arctic airmasses. One early in the month and one late in the month. 

 

I don't know enough about PNA correlations to add anything on that subject. I will say this - most of our Portland area members would probably be happy with another January that drops 4-5" on us. How realistic is to talk about a major Arctic blast in January, when there hasn't been one since 2004? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, given our recent climate trends, to automatically cast a January that doesn't feature a major Arctic outbreak as some sort of failure. A "noteworthy" January (to use your words) by historical standards is all but unattainable in the modern era, regardless of where the PNA or any other index lands in October/November. 

[Phil]

Nothing major, just two modified Arctic airmasses. One early in the month and one late in the month.

 

I don't know enough about PNA correlations to add anything on that subject. I will say this - most of our Portland area members would probably be happy with another January that drops 4-5" on us. How realistic is to talk about a major Arctic blast in January, when there hasn't been one since 2004? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, given our recent climate trends, to automatically cast a January that doesn't feature a major Arctic outbreak as some sort of failure. A "noteworthy" January (to use your words) by historical standards is all but unattainable in the modern era, regardless of where the PNA or any other index lands in October/November.

A few things.

 

1) Regarding the bolded, why do you believe that? A few degrees of hemispheric warming likely cannot physically explain the lack of "noteworthy" Januaries (at least not by itself). Certainly, other areas across the NH have continued to set all time records on an occasional basis.

 

2) The PNA correlations hold firm all the way back to the "good days" of the early/mid 20th century. So I don't think it even matters which reference point you use.

 

Just my opinions here.

[Brennan]

If Oct/Nov PNA is positive, this January will settle the case once and for all!

[MossMan]

December-february 08-09 were pretty good overall. I had snow and a few cold days in January which was more than I could hope for after that December.

Had snow piles at work that lasted until the last week of January 2009 from the December epicness!!! Oh how I would love a repeat!

[crf450ish]

http://www.spokesman.com/blogs/hbo/2016/oct/27/heavy-snow-fall-expected-winter/

 

 

 

........One local meteorologist says Spokane should be ready for about 5 1/2 feet of snow this winter.......

 

 

 

What the hell? Thats it?!?! 

[TT-SEA]

http://www.spokesman.com/blogs/hbo/2016/oct/27/heavy-snow-fall-expected-winter/

 

 

 

........One local meteorologist says Spokane should be ready for about 5 1/2 feet of snow this winter.......

 

 

 

What the hell? Thats it?!?! 

 

 

Normal is 41 inches... so roughly 3.5 feet.

[stuffradio]

It was actually a reasonably decent January for us, and in lieu of what had happened a whopping 10 or so days prior to January it's a rather moot point.  

 

Were there any Arctic blasts in January of 2009? I think the idea expressed by the aforementioned correlations holds true, in that when both October and November run +PNA averages, the following Januaries are very unlikely to be noteworthy, with a few "reasonably decent" ones being the best offerings in a sea of bad apples.

 

This relation holds true all the way back into the early/mid 20th century.

Jan 2009 was filled with very chilly days. During the Obama inauguration, it was a sunny day with lots of cold temps, and it was cold most of that month too... just very sunny which is fine with me.

[BLI snowman]

Were there any Arctic blasts in January of 2009? I think the idea expressed by the aforementioned correlations holds true, in that when both October and November run +PNA averages, the following Januaries are very unlikely to be noteworthy, with a few "reasonably decent" ones being the best offerings in a sea of bad apples.

 

This relation holds true all the way back into the early/mid 20th century.

 

Again, this is dubious. Post the list of years that back up your assertion because I see years like 1969 and 1980 as all-time great Januaries for parts of the region. 

 

I'd say at best you're overselling any correlation. Our mid-winter period has done fine many times when the PNA is positive in the fall. That is all that we care about.

[TT-SEA]

Nice morning...

 

[Bryant]

Big Mac will beat you up.

I really need to change my name...

[Phil]

Again, this is dubious. Post the list of years that back up your assertion because I see years like 1969 and 1980 as all-time great Januaries for parts of the region.

 

I'd say at best you're overselling any correlation. Our mid-winter period has done fine many times when the PNA is positive in the fall. That is all that we care about.

Those were +ENSO years. I was only discussing -ENSO years through the 20th century.

 

I ran a time-series that I'll post when I get back home.

[Jesse]

I said for -ENSO years through the 20th century. Those (again) were +ENSO winters.

 

I ran a time-series that I'll post when I get back.

I thought this year was basically an El Niño now?

[Phil]

I thought this year was basically an El Niño now?

Reading and context are fundamental.

[BLI snowman]

Those were +ENSO years. I was only discussing -ENSO years through the 20th century.

 

I ran a time-series that I'll post when I get back home.

 

Seems like goal-post shifting. Earlier you said there were 26 years (not necessarily just negative ENSO) that had +PNA in Oct/Nov and that none of them delivered in January. Do you still have numbers to back that claim up?

[Jesse]

Reading and context are fundamental.

 

Well for a year that is so off the charts and unprecedented in every way imaginable, I would think now would be the time to throw stodgy old correlations out the window.

[Phil]

Seems like goal-post shifting. Earlier you said there were 26 years (not necessarily just negative ENSO) that had +PNA in Oct/Nov and that none of them delivered in January. Do you still have numbers to back that claim up?

First, I said 16 years, and second, from the start I was only discussing -ENSO years. I thought I mentioned that too.

[ShawniganLake]

First, I said 16 years, and second, from the start I was only discussing -ENSO years. I thought I mentioned that too.

I remember you saying 26, perhaps a typo.

 

I am going to stick with December and February as my hopefull months. Seems like there is just way too much pressure on January for him to perform this year. #stagefright.

[Phil]

I remember you saying 26, perhaps a typo.

 

I am going to stick with December and February as my hopefull months. Seems like there is just way too much pressure on January for him to perform this year. #stagefright.

Oops, yeah that was I typo. Hit the wrong key I guess.

 

Meant 16 years, not 26.

[BLI snowman]

First, I said 16 years, and second, from the start I was only discussing -ENSO years. I thought I mentioned that too.

 

You definitely said 26.

 

This was last night and what I replied to

 

Wanna guess the last time +PNAs in both OCT/NOV were followed by an Arctic outbreak in JAN?

 

Not a pretty statistic at all. There are 26 cases, none of them delivered.

[Phil]

You definitely said 26.

 

This was last night and what I replied to

 

 

Not a pretty statistic at all. There are 26 cases, none of them delivered.

Yeah, I meant 16. Not sure how that happened, probably hit the wrong key or had a brain glitch. My fault.

[Jesse]

It's amazing how persistent that GOA low has been and will continue to be.

 

Looks like an absolute blowtorch for much of the country through the first week of November.

[Tundra]

I agree.  The forecast from that model doesn't teleconnect very well at all.  I think I see the light of where all of these ridiculous winter forecasts have been coming from.

 

Yeah, the most important thing to take away from the CESM maps is that the highest anomalies, either cold or warm will occur up in Alaska. More specifically Western Alaska with warm anomalies that look to peak in December and January, almost the perfect time where we want that to occur. The first ingredient to getting an Arctic Blast into the PNW is huge Blocking in Western Alaska, and that's exactly what the CESM is showing December and January. Some of our greatest Arctic Blast have been where the ridge near us retrogrades to the West, giving us Cold weather. 

[Tundra]

This pretty much sums up what we are dealing with right now.

 

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice

"The only way the U.S. will get cold is if that North Pacific cyclone gets kicked out.  We need a complete Pacific 180"

 

http://i.imgur.com/8aOEF92.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/792032199151419393

[wx_statman]

A few things.

 

1) Regarding the bolded, why do you believe that? A few degrees of hemispheric warming likely cannot physically explain the lack of "noteworthy" Januaries (at least not by itself). Certainly, other areas across the NH have continued to set all time records on an occasional basis.

 

2) The PNA correlations hold firm all the way back to the "good days" of the early/mid 20th century. So I don't think it even matters which reference point you use.

 

Just my opinions here.

 

We haven't seen a significantly cold January, by historic standards, since 1979. That's a long time, no?

[Jesse]

PDX up to 65. Outside shot at 70 today.

[Phil]

We haven't seen a significantly cold January, by historic standards, since 1979. That's a long time, no?

Sure, that's a long time from a human perspective.

 

However, I don't believe it says anything in regards to whether such an event is possible today. As historically cold months have occurred in many areas across the northern hemisphere in recent years, this suggests to me that indeed such an event is still possible today.

 

Sure, the climatological circulations (both over the NPAC and globe as a whole) have changed significantly during the J/F/M timeframe, however, I don't think these low frequency changes preclude a historically cold January, or a pattern analogous to those which produced great PNW Januaries in the past.

 

Rather, I'd argue it's simply more difficult to achieve today given the differences in the dominant circulatory modes.

[TT-SEA]

Warm and sunny day... 64 at SEA now.

 

66 here.

[Deweydog]

Nice day!

[Jesse]

Nice day!

Indeed. Should cloud up again tonight just in time to keep lows from getting into the uncomfortably chilly sub-50 range too!

[ShawniganLake]

Indeed. Should cloud up again tonight just in time to keep lows from getting into the uncomfortably chilly sub-50 range too!

54 here this afternoon. Seems like there has been a flip with anomalies this season. We ran warm all summer while it was cooler down there. Now it's warm down there and cool up here. October is going to end up very close to normal at Shawnigan lake.

[Front Ranger]

The increasingly apparent failure of our region to bounce back from the 2014-16 torch in a meaningful way is pretty disappointing.

The record warm months have ceased since spring, at least.

[Jesse]

54 here this afternoon. Seems like there has been a flip with anomalies this season. We ran warm all summer while it was cooler down there. Now it's warm down there and cool up here. October is going to end up very close to normal at Shawnigan lake.

Interesting. Probably not a bad thing I suppose. Certainly more "Niña-ish".

[Front Ranger]

Nothing major, just two modified Arctic airmasses. One early in the month and one late in the month.

 

I don't know enough about PNA correlations to add anything on that subject. I will say this - most of our Portland area members would probably be happy with another January that drops 4-5" on us. How realistic is to talk about a major Arctic blast in January, when there hasn't been one since 2004? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, given our recent climate trends, to automatically cast a January that doesn't feature a major Arctic outbreak as some sort of failure. A "noteworthy" January (to use your words) by historical standards is all but unattainable in the modern era, regardless of where the PNA or any other index lands in October/November.

As far as cold goes, 2007 was pretty close to 2004 for the western lowlands. Factoring both duration and lows, not just highs at PDX, of course.

[Deweydog]

The record warm months have ceased since spring, at least.

Any warm anomalies between now and 2019 will be seen as a cruel scab ripping regardless of their magnitude or scope.

[Deweydog]

Indeed. Should cloud up again tonight just in time to keep lows from getting into the uncomfortably chilly sub-50 range too!

Perhaps I should have gone with +1.6. +1.7?

[Front Ranger]

It's amazing how persistent that GOA low has been and will continue to be.

 

Looks like an absolute blowtorch for much of the country through the first week of November.

One of the warmest falls on record in this region, to this point. And bone dry. Awful.

[TT-SEA]

66 at SEA now... +10 on the high for the day.  

[Deweydog]

As far as cold goes, 2007 was pretty close to 2004 for the western lowlands. Factoring both duration and lows, not just highs at PDX, of course.

2004 was a low level beast but from an upper level perspective 2007 was definitely more impressive. Go figure...

[Front Ranger]

66 at SEA now... +10 on the high for the day.

More frequent updates, please.