October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Duration doesn't tell you anything about how impressive ("major") an airmass is. Its just a reflection of how progressive (or not) the 500mb pattern happens to be at the time of the cold wave. A cold wave can have impressive duration, but at the same time not be a major Arctic outbreak. 

 

Remember where I'm coming from. You replied to my post, where I labeled January 2004 as the "last major Arctic outbreak" in the month of January here in the PNW. I agree that both 2004 and 2007 were very similar @ BLI and EUG, with only the duration of 2007 giving that cold wave the edge at both places (since temperatures were similar). Neither cold wave would qualify as a "major" Arctic outbreak at EUG, its more debatable at BLI. 

 

So what do we take out of this? Are we re-framing the narrative to say that we haven't seen a major Arctic outbreak in the Western lowlands of the PNW in the month of January since 1996? Since 1982? 1980? Placing 2004 in that category makes sense to me, given its impact in parts of the Western lowlands as well as east of the Cascades. Placing 2007 in that category wouldn't make any sense to me, since temperatures just weren't that cold - anywhere in the PNW.

 

 

Both places got colder in 2007. EUG had 4 sub-freezing highs in 2007, 2 in 2004.

 

Hey, agree to disagree on duration not mattering for evaluating an event. To me, Dec 1972 would not have been the same if it only lasted 2 days, for example.

[Deweydog]

#20042007gate2016

[Gradient Keeper]

January 2004 for my area(near Gresham) was amazing. Far more than anything that occurred in 2007. The cold arrived on December 30th, then snow, sleet early January followed by a significant arctic blast, 8-10" of snow and Blizzard conditions. I was under 20 for two consecutive days with a strong, icy east wind. Pasco was -25 in January 2004. No comparison to 2007 for the PDX metro area, Columbia Gorge, or Columbia Basin.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

Day 10 looks warm...... Get the shorts and bikinis back out.....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016102900/ecmwf_T850_nwus_11.png

[snow_wizard]

The GFS and ECMWF both look to be going for a real GOA / Aleutian trough as we get into the second week of November.  Looks pretty stormy for us.

[snow_wizard]

"The BLOB is not good for NW snow"

 

Cliff Mass is a little too extreme sometimes

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/10/the-snow-outlook-for-this-winter-in.html?m=1

 

For sure.  One variation of the blob is a negative PDO.  I still say it's more a sign of where we have been as opposed to where we are going anyway.  At any rate...pretty likely the PDO will be negative later in the season.

[James Jones]

00z ECMWF

Day 10 looks warm...... Get the shorts and bikinis back out.....

 

Poor old November has missed out on the warm anomaly party the last 3 years, so now it's trying to join in.

[snow_wizard]

Poor old November has missed out on the warm anomaly party the last 3 years, so now it's trying to join in.

 

That is another odd thing about November.  During very warm periods it is the most likely month to go against the trend and be chilly.  All in all cold Novembers aren't where you want to go if you want the rest of the winter to be cold.

[snow_wizard]

Bastardi has updated his winter forecast.  Not quite as warm of temps for us and above normal snowfall.  He said a back and forth winter is highly possible ie. 1995-96.

[wx_statman]

 

Both places got colder in 2007. EUG had 4 sub-freezing highs in 2007, 2 in 2004.

 

Hey, agree to disagree on duration not mattering for evaluating an event. To me, Dec 1972 would not have been the same if it only lasted 2 days, for example.

 

Coldest max/min pairs at EUG:

 

29/20 in 2004

30/17 in 2007

 

Coldest max/min pairs at BLI:

 

21/13 in 2004

25/10 in 2007

 

Those numbers look similar to me. Also, those are just two (cherry-picked by you) locations where January 2004 didn't have a clear edge over January 2007. Why are we not talking about the plethora of locations where January 2004 was clearly colder than 2007? And what's the point of stating "EUG had 4 sub-freezing highs in 2007, 2 in 2004" when I already pointed out, specifically, that duration is the parameter that would give EUG the edge in 2007 over 2004?  

 

Also, I never said duration doesn't "matter" when evaluating a cold wave. I merely pointed out that duration is not a reflection of the intensity ("coldness") of an airmass.

 

But again, what are we talking about here? Why are we talking about EUG and BLI? Why are we talking about 2004 vs. 2007? 

 

You haven't addressed this:

 

Remember where I'm coming from. You replied to my post, where I labeled January 2004 as the "last major Arctic outbreak" in the month of January here in the PNW....So what do we take out of this? Are we re-framing the narrative to say that we haven't seen a major Arctic outbreak in the Western lowlands of the PNW in the month of January since 1996? Since 1982? 1980? Placing 2004 in that category makes sense to me, given its impact in parts of the Western lowlands as well as east of the Cascades. Placing 2007 in that category wouldn't make any sense to me, since temperatures just weren't that cold - anywhere in the PNW.

[ShawniganLake]

2004 was much colder than 2007 up here. Not even close really.

Bottomed out 30/19 in 2007 and 25/10 in 2004.

[wx_statman]

In times like this, we should turn to the Station of the Gods, commonly known as OLM:

 

28/10 in 2004

31/12 in 2007

[BLI snowman]

In times like this, we should turn to the Station of the Gods, commonly known as OLM:

 

28/10 in 2004

31/12 in 2007

 

I know, it's funny that his favorite station contradicts his opinion on this.

 

And the entire debate is very out of left field. In that classic Flatiron devil's advocate playbook. 

[Brennan]

I'll settle this debate between 2004-2007 for Bellingham. The 2004 event was better, colder, snowier. The snow going into the event was dry, whereas in 2007 snow didnt even stick to the roads in downtown bellingham. 2004 came through with a vengience. It was ******* awesome. January 2007 is in the back seat for that winter because November 2006 was so good here. January 2004>2007.

[Bryant]

For sure.  One variation of the blob is a negative PDO.  I still say it's more a sign of where we have been as opposed to where we are going anyway.  At any rate...pretty likely the PDO will be negative later in the season.

 

This is how I've always viewed the blob, and never understood the hype surrounding it. Persistent high pressure, less mixing of the waters below, waters warm... seems pretty simple and to the point? 

[crf450ish]

There's definitely room for debate if we strictly talk about the Western lowlands. But that's a fairly narrow segment of the PNW.

No kidding. I wish there was more people from my area on here. No one on here lives in Spokane or even Coeur d'Alene. Everyone appears to be from the west side of the cascades. Would be nice to have some decent analysis of what happens over here.

 

Maybe I'm wrong (I hope)...

[westcoastexpat]

Question about the PDO:

 

Not something I'm super familiar with, but why are we so certain that it will be negative this winter? A lot of forecasts are expecting it to remain slightly positive through the winter, so I'm confused if there's something I'm missing.

[westcoastexpat]

Probably the best reasoned winter forecast I've seen yet: http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2016/10/24/2016-2017-winter-outlook-by-vencore-weather

 

Analogs favored:

1995-96

1985-86

1954-55

[westcoastexpat]

Euro weeklies setting up a +PNA heading into December.

[TT-SEA]

Probably the best reasoned winter forecast I've seen yet: http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2016/10/24/2016-2017-winter-outlook-by-vencore-weather

 

Analogs favored:

1995-96

1985-86

1954-55

 

 

Well... we should start seeing signs of arctic air and snow very soon here if we follow 1985.    We would be just 12 days away now.

 

Or in the case of 1954-55... nothing happened until March.    

 

Hard to draw an meaningful conclusions about those analog years for us here.

[westcoastexpat]

Well... we should start seeing signs of arctic air and snow very soon here if we follow 1985.    We would be just 12 days away now.

 

Or in the case of 1954-55... nothing happened until March.    

 

Hard to draw an meaningful conclusions about those analog years for us here.

 

Well, no two winters are going to be identical on a week-to-week basis... only use for analogs is for a general progression in pattern.

[TT-SEA]

Well, no two winters are going to be identical on a week-to-week basis... only use for analogs is for a general progression in pattern.

 

Yes... but still hard to draw conclusions from those years when the progression was completely different in each one and the results were wildly different locally.

[TT-SEA]

Euro weeklies setting up a +PNA heading into December.

 

 

Just ran through the ensemble mean on the ECMWF weeklies... the huge GOA trough slowly retrogrades during the first half of November and is replaced by a GOA ridge.    Looks like it turns cold in the East as well.  

[westcoastexpat]

Yes... but still hard to draw conclusions from those years when the progression was completely different in each one and the results were wildly different locally.

 

Sure, but climate and local effects are two different beasts.

[westcoastexpat]

Just ran through the ensemble mean on the ECMWF weeklies... the huge GOA trough slowly retrogrades during the first half of November and is replaced by a GOA ridge.    Looks like it turns cold in the East as well.  

 

Yeah, looks very cold for eastern part of the continent. Looks like November 2013

[Timmy Supercell]

3+ hours of steady rain, occasionally heavy. Really heavy at 5:30am here. Somehow KLMT only records 0.03" out of this by 7:53.

[MossMan]

Well I had an hour of playing with the dogs and weeding before the drenching rains came in. Better than a kick in the a** I guess.

[Bryant]

Yeah, looks very cold for eastern part of the continent. Looks like November 2013

Have you released a winter forecast?

[stuffradio]

Was it?

 

Landsburg had a 22/14 day in the 2004 event compared to a 32/14 spread in 2007.

 

Bellingham had a daytime high of 19 with the CAA in 2004, 26 with CAA in 2007. 2004 was a colder source airmass and it showed, for the most part. 

 

2007 was much better for snow than 2004 north of the border.

[stuffradio]

Jan 2004 got cold down to -9C, but I only got a couple inches of snow. Jan 2007 got down to -12 or -13C and more than a foot of snow. Up here, 2007 is undeniably a better year than 2004. I'll let you guys continue to bicker down there about 2004/07 though.

[Weather101]

December 2nd first snow

[stuffradio]

It actually feels good to see a Bastardi map show above normal snow for us. It's going to happen folks, book it!

[westcoastexpat]

Have you released a winter forecast?

 

Nope. You?

[Phil]

For sure. One variation of the blob is a negative PDO. I still say it's more a sign of where we have been as opposed to where we are going anyway. At any rate...pretty likely the PDO will be negative later in the season.

Ding ding ding ding!

[Phil]

Bastardi has updated his winter forecast. Not quite as warm of temps for us and above normal snowfall. He said a back and forth winter is highly possible ie. 1995-96.

That's been my thinking for awhile now. Pattern variability under an impotent niña background state.

[stuffradio]

That's been my thinking for awhile now. Pattern variability under an impotent niña background state.

We usually get more snow under warmer winters anyways. The colder it gets here, I found it becomes drier. Our optimal snow temps are around 28-34F.

[Phil]

Question about the PDO:

 

Not something I'm super familiar with, but why are we so certain that it will be negative this winter? A lot of forecasts are expecting it to remain slightly positive through the winter, so I'm confused if there's something I'm missing.

My question..why do people care so much? The blob obsession never made any sense to me.

[Phil]

Well, no two winters are going to be identical on a week-to-week basis... only use for analogs is for a general progression in pattern.

Heh, we actually agree on something.

[Phil]

Just ran through the ensemble mean on the ECMWF weeklies... the huge GOA trough slowly retrogrades during the first half of November and is replaced by a GOA ridge. Looks like it turns cold in the East as well.

I don't see any GOA ridge, at least not on the improved version of the weeklies (new version contain improved ocean/atmos coupling algorithms). Looks more like a west coast ridge to me.

[ShawniganLake]

Jan 2004 got cold down to -9C, but I only got a couple inches of snow. Jan 2007 got down to -12 or -13C and more than a foot of snow. Up here, 2007 is undeniably a better year than 2004. I'll let you guys continue to bicker down there about 2004/07 though.

Stronger outflow in 2004.  High temperatures were colder but low temperatures were warmer than 2007, due to the wind.  Definitely snowier in 2007 in the Fraser Valley area.