October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Some sustained cool NW flow would be nice to see at some point. It has been years since we've seen a prolonged pattern like that. That sort of evolution moving deeper into November would be promising going forward, IMO.

[Sometimesdylan]

Got to see the Aurora last night, a nice green band stretching from east to west across the sky. It wasn't as active as some we've had recently, but it was a nice treat to the end of a busy night at work. Didn't really see it on the drive home until I pulled off the highway and into the neighborhood because of all the lights on the road. If you look on the facebook group "Juneau Photo Group" you can see some pictures others took. 

[Sometimesdylan]

Interesting to see how this block ends! Last one ended up with anywhere from 2-7in of snow around sea level here. The ever optimistic meteostar GFS is showing us only getting about an inch of liquid over 240 hours. It sure is getting cold at night. Started parking my truck a little further back in the driveway so the late morning light melts the ice off (no scraping  ) this trick wont work in late November through January when the sun rises extra slow, but I might as well take advantage of it while I can.

 

Low of 27 last night. Mid 40's high expected today. Might get some cloud cover that will keep the temps high (high 30s, low 40s) tonight, but it is hard to believe that right now. Just see blue sky.

[Jesse]

Interesting to see how this block ends! Last one ended up with anywhere from 2-7in of snow around sea level here. The ever optimistic meteostar GFS is showing us only getting about an inch of liquid over 240 hours. It sure is getting cold at night. Started parking my truck a little further back in the driveway so the late morning light melts the ice off (no scraping  ) this trick wont work in late November through January when the sun rises extra slow, but I might as well take advantage of it while I can.

 

Low of 27 last night. Mid 40's high expected today. Might get some cloud cover that will keep the temps high (high 30s, low 40s) tonight, but it is hard to believe that right now. Just see blue sky.

 

Is it unusually early for you guys to be seeing prolonged clear and cold weather?

 

We came close to having that drop down our way this week, actually. But the southern jet curving around the cutoff low offshore (basically the base of a rex block) messed things up at this latitude. We've been mild and rainy instead.

[Timmy Supercell]

Tree limb blew down our street moments ago. Saw that when I was trimming some things knocking against the side of the house because of the wind. Gusty! I like mid day wind events. Also warm outside too.

[Brennan]

The coldest I've dealt with was in the -20's F in Western Montana, but that was not my most miserable experience. My most miserable cold was helping with a cattle drive over Thanksgiving (my wife's family has a ranch there). It was only in the single digits but there was a stiff wind blowing through the canyon we had to traverse. I was lucky enough to be driving the follow truck (with the "cattle drive ahead" sign on the back). Of course the guys on horseback had it alot worse that I did, but they also had proper clothing for the conditions, where I did not. I also had to keep the windows down to hear they guys on horseback, and the heater did not really work.

 

The family house was built up from the original homestead, the bedroom we slept in was scabbed on and did not have a lot of insulation, or a heat source other than an electric oil heater. With all the wind that trip I don't think the room warmed to more than 35-38 degrees. My wife and I are both hot sleepers but that trip we wore socks, gloves, sweatshirt, sweat pants, piled under 2-3 thick blankets and still our butts off. My mother in law told stories of waking up as a child with snow on her bed during blizzards (it would blow through gaps in the windows and walls.) They've sealed things up better over the years but its still pretty d**n cold on those bedrooms.

 

The time we stayed there when it went into the -20's we stayed at a hotel, so we had a warm place to sleep.

That sound's insane. And like something out of the 19th century minus the truck with no heater.

 

I actually experienced colder than the 9* i mentioned but I was talking about my own back yard.

 

I was in Anchorage during the '96 blizzard of the century in the NW interior and it was around ZERO up there for the entire week. I think the coldest it got down to was about -10 at my aunt's house. Couldn't even play outside at the ripe age of 8.

[Sometimesdylan]

Is it unusually early for you guys to be seeing prolonged clear and cold weather?

 

We came close to having that drop down our way this week, actually. But the southern jet curving around the cutoff low offshore (basically the base of a rex block) messed things up at this latitude. We've been mild and rainy instead.

October is usually when we get our first snowfall.So cold wise I would say that it's not that unusual for us to be getting frost on clear nights. It's right when the sun starts being noticeably absent. That being said, October should be one of our wettest months. We usually get 8.5in and we're sitting around 3.5in right now. We average about 220 days of precip a year, so any extended stretch of dry weather is not really the norm. 

[stuffradio]

Personally, I've only experienced somewhere between 0F and 5F. I don't like temps that cold, because usually to get that, we are in the middle of the Fraser outflow, which means it's quite windy. During the events when it gets to 10F to 15F, and it's not windy, I can walk around with a t-shirt and shorts without being too cold. When it's windy and cold, I don't like to be outside long.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is over 8 inches now for the month... less than an inch to go to beat out 2003 for the wettest October ever.

[Jesse]

Personally, I've only experienced somewhere between 0F and 5F. I don't like temps that cold, because usually to get that, we are in the middle of the Fraser outflow, which means it's quite windy. During the events when it gets to 10F to 15F, and it's not windy, I can walk around with a t-shirt and shorts without being too cold. When it's windy and cold, I don't like to be outside long.

When you are getting dry, brutally cold Fraser outflow that means areas to the south could be getting buried with snow, though. Think about the diversity!

[ShawniganLake]

Personally, I've only experienced somewhere between 0F and 5F. I don't like temps that cold, because usually to get that, we are in the middle of the Fraser outflow, which means it's quite windy. During the events when it gets to 10F to 15F, and it's not windy, I can walk around with a t-shirt and shorts without being too cold. When it's windy and cold, I don't like to be outside long.

That's not normal

[Timmy Supercell]

Personally, I've only experienced somewhere between 0F and 5F. I don't like temps that cold, because usually to get that, we are in the middle of the Fraser outflow, which means it's quite windy. During the events when it gets to 10F to 15F, and it's not windy, I can walk around with a t-shirt and shorts without being too cold. When it's windy and cold, I don't like to be outside long.

 

You don't have any nerves left....

 

 

When it's windy and cold, I don't like to be outside long.

 

If you don't want frost bite, put on a jacket

[wx_statman]

Lowest number of sub-45 minimums at PDX through 10/31 (since 1941):

 

0 - 2014

2 - 2015

3 - 2016 (so far, which has a possibility of holding)

4 - 2003

 

There's obviously UHI in play here, but this is still pretty ridiculous. In the pre-UHI era PDX managed just 5 days with sub-45 minimums in 1944, and also 5 days in 1979. 

[Jesse]

Lowest number of sub-45 minimums at PDX through 10/31 (since 1941):

 

0 - 2014

2 - 2015

3 - 2016 (so far, which has a possibility of holding)

4 - 2003

 

There's obviously UHI in play here, but this is still pretty ridiculous. In the pre-UHI era PDX managed just 5 days with sub-45 minimums in 1944, and also 5 days in 1979. 

 

Good stuff.

 

Just out of curiosity, where do you generally draw the line for pre and post-UHI?

[Deweydog]

Good stuff.

 

Just out of curiosity, where do you generally draw the line for pre and post-UHI?

Pre and post Cascade Station.

[Dave]

Currently, it's 70 degrees in Eugene.  Feels nice.  It will almost certainly be the last 70 of 2016.

[Timmy Supercell]

Currently, it's 70 degrees in Eugene.  Feels nice.  It will almost certainly be the last 70 of 2016.

 

Don't forget, it'll be 70 on Christmas.

[stuffradio]

That's not normal

I was born for Alaska apparently.

[stuffradio]

 

You don't have any nerves left....

 

 

 

If you don't want frost bite, put on a jacket

 

I'm a runner. I run rain, snow, sleet, blistering sun. It hurts when it's raining ice pellets though...

[Dave]

Don't forget, it'll be 70 on Christmas.

We haven't had a white Christmas here since the mid 80's.  Based on how many new hairs have established growth on my back this year, I think we have a great shot.

[Timmy Supercell]

We haven't had a white Christmas here since the mid 80's.  Based on how many new hairs have established growth on my back this year, I think we have a great shot.

 

I thought Eugene got a good blast back in '08? Which isn't that long ago. Unless you were elsewhere then.

 

That was the only white Christmas I remember in my life I think.. until about 2010 when I came down here, that's a regular thing in the mountains. "Nothing to see here, move along, just more snow" That's this area now.

[Dave]

I thought Eugene got a good blast back in '08? Which isn't that long ago. Unless you were elsewhere then.

 

That was the only white Christmas I remember in my life I think.. until about 2010 when I came down here, that's a regular thing in the mountains. "Nothing to see here, move along, just more snow" That's this area now.

We don't talk about 2008 here in Eugene.  Instead, we discuss March 2012, December 2013, and Feb 2014.  

[wx_statman]

Good stuff.

 

Just out of curiosity, where do you generally draw the line for pre and post-UHI?

 

Its hard to say. Increasing UHI influence on the PDX sensor has been an ongoing process, one that has noticeably picked up in pace starting sometime in the 1980's-1990's. I would say that as recently as the early 1990's, PDX had a noticeably easier time cooling off during calm, clear nights compared to any time following. From Wikipedia:

 

In 1974 the south runway was extended to 11,000 feet (3,400 m) to service the newest jumbo jets. The terminal building was renovated and expanded in 1977....By the 1980s, the terminal building began an extensive renovation in order to update PDX to meet future needs. The ticketing and baggage claim areas were renovated and expanded, and a new Concourse D for Alaska Airlines was added in 1986. Concourse E was first to be reconstructed in 1992, and featured PDX's first moving sidewalks....The early 1990s saw a food court and extension added to Concourse C, and the opening of the new Concourse D in 1994....An expanded parking garage, new control tower, and canopy over the curbside were finished in the late 1990s.

 

The obvious implication here is that more and more concrete was added to the local area from every phase of construction. 

 

In addition, a large amount of development has taken place immediately adjacent to PDX since the 1990's. Ambassador Place, a four story office building immediately south of Airport Way (and within sight of the east end of Runway 28R), was developed in 1996. Adjacent Embassy Suites, an even larger structure, was completed in 1999. Both have fairly large parking lots. An office park directly to the south was built in 1990. This landscape had been fields/prairie up until that time.

 

Then of course we had the development of Cascade Station, which was completed between 2007-09. The nearby FBI Regional Field Office was built around 2012-13. And just in the past two years, several new warehouses (along with large parking lots to allow for semi trucks maneuvering in and out) have been built in what had been fields immediately south of Cascade Station. 

 

So there's been a constant stream of development immediately adjacent to PDX over the last 25 years. Up until 1990, the southeastern buffer zone to PDX was almost entirely natural landscapes, and I would venture to guess that at least 50% of this zone has been turned over to buildings and pavement since that time. Which would explain why the UHI effect at PDX noticeably increased during the 1990's compared to decades prior, and why it has seemingly increased even further during the last 10 years. 

[wx_statman]

We don't talk about 2008 here in Eugene.  Instead, we discuss March 2012, December 2013, and Feb 2014.  

 

You guys got hit pretty good mid-month though, during the first shot. Didn't you see about 4" of snow followed by lows around 10F?

[Dave]

You guys got hit pretty good mid-month though, during the first shot. Didn't you see about 4" of snow followed by lows around 10F?

Yes, that is correct.  But we only had snow & freezing weather for about 3 days before it turned into a miserable cold rain that quickly melted away all traces of the snow.  Meanwhile, all areas from about Salem northward enjoyed 10+ days of the goods and a white Christmas.  I consumed a lot of vodka that December.

[crf450ish]

Personally, I've only experienced somewhere between 0F and 5F. I don't like temps that cold, because usually to get that, we are in the middle of the Fraser outflow, which means it's quite windy. During the events when it gets to 10F to 15F, and it's not windy, I can walk around with a t-shirt and shorts without being too cold. When it's windy and cold, I don't like to be outside long.

 

 

That's not normal

 

Last winter here at my house I got a wild hair and decided to try and run down my 1/8 mile long driveway in my underwear when it was 8 degrees outside. Got about 1/2 way and said nope and ran back. I'm not saying alcohol was not involved.....

[Deweydog]

Holy hell that's a monster at 240 on the Euro.

 

Might be worth renting a schooner to head out and do some storm watching.  

[BLI snowman]

Lowest number of sub-45 minimums at PDX through 10/31 (since 1941):

 

0 - 2014

2 - 2015

3 - 2016 (so far, which has a possibility of holding)

4 - 2003

 

There's obviously UHI in play here, but this is still pretty ridiculous. In the pre-UHI era PDX managed just 5 days with sub-45 minimums in 1944, and also 5 days in 1979. 

 

They should probably manage at least one, possibly two more before the end of the month. 

[χιόνι (chióni)]

10.25 rain for October 2016 so far

[Jesse]

They should probably manage at least one, possibly two more before the end of the month.

I wouldn't bank on it yet, given recent trends. 46-48 seems like a good range for the mornings of the 30th and 31st at this point.

[Deweydog]

I wouldn't bank on it yet, given recent trends. 46-48 seems like a good range for the mornings of the 30th and 31st at this point.

 

Where'd that October optimism go???

 

They could very easily dress themselves up with a couple 43's.  It's practically November.  

[Jesse]

Where'd that October optimism go???

 

They could very easily dress themselves up with a couple 43's. It's practically November.

Washed away with all the rain.

 

Your +1.5 will probably end up pretty close to reality. Still a big improvement from the last two. The 9th-16th was the best stretch of weather of the month, singlehandedly saved it.

[Deweydog]

Washed away with all the rain.

 

Your +1.5 will probably end up pretty close to reality. Still a big improvement from the last two. The 9th-16th was the best stretch of weather of the month, singlehandedly saved it.

 

The payoff is only four weeks away, give or take.  

[BLI snowman]

Its hard to say. Increasing UHI influence on the PDX sensor has been an ongoing process, one that has noticeably picked up in pace starting sometime in the 1980's-1990's. I would say that as recently as the early 1990's, PDX had a noticeably easier time cooling off during calm, clear nights compared to any time following. From Wikipedia:

 

In 1974 the south runway was extended to 11,000 feet (3,400 m) to service the newest jumbo jets. The terminal building was renovated and expanded in 1977....By the 1980s, the terminal building began an extensive renovation in order to update PDX to meet future needs. The ticketing and baggage claim areas were renovated and expanded, and a new Concourse D for Alaska Airlines was added in 1986. Concourse E was first to be reconstructed in 1992, and featured PDX's first moving sidewalks....The early 1990s saw a food court and extension added to Concourse C, and the opening of the new Concourse D in 1994....An expanded parking garage, new control tower, and canopy over the curbside were finished in the late 1990s.

 

The obvious implication here is that more and more concrete was added to the local area from every phase of construction. 

 

In addition, a large amount of development has taken place immediately adjacent to PDX since the 1990's. Ambassador Place, a four story office building immediately south of Airport Way (and within sight of the east end of Runway 28R), was developed in 1996. Adjacent Embassy Suites, an even larger structure, was completed in 1999. Both have fairly large parking lots. An office park directly to the south was built in 1990. This landscape had been fields/prairie up until that time.

 

Then of course we had the development of Cascade Station, which was completed between 2007-09. The nearby FBI Regional Field Office was built around 2012-13. And just in the past two years, several new warehouses (along with large parking lots to allow for semi trucks maneuvering in and out) have been built in what had been fields immediately south of Cascade Station. 

 

So there's been a constant stream of development immediately adjacent to PDX over the last 25 years. Up until 1990, the southeastern buffer zone to PDX was almost entirely natural landscapes, and I would venture to guess that at least 50% of this zone has been turned over to buildings and pavement since that time. Which would explain why the UHI effect at PDX noticeably increased during the 1990's compared to decades prior, and why it has seemingly increased even further during the last 10 years. 

 

PDX's low temps seemed to move a lot closer to downtown Portland's somewhere in the early-mid 1970s, which perhaps not coincidentally is also when the downtown Portland station moved to its current site. Either way though, PDX tended to average about 3F colder minimums than downtown from 1940 up until 1970 or so and has consistently been only about a degree or less colder than downtown ever since.

 

In 1943 for example, PDX's average annual minimum was 43.53 and downtown's was 46.63, a 3.1 degree difference. In 2015, downtown's average minimum was 48.71 and PDX's was 48.01. Only a .70 degree difference. An intermediate year like 1980 shows a .93 degree difference between the two, much closer to today than the early days of PDX.

[Jesse]

The payoff is only four weeks away, give or take.

You're really feeling late November huh?

[BLI snowman]

Where'd that October optimism go???

 

They could very easily dress themselves up with a couple 43's.  It's practically November.  

 

Early Sunday morning is probably the best chance. 

 

Nothing says excitement like an average mid-fall low!

[Deweydog]

You're really feeling late November huh?

More and more. It's a feeling that's been pretty sustaining. We'll see...

[Deweydog]

Early Sunday morning is probably the best chance.

 

Nothing says excitement like an average mid-fall low!

Clearing appears to be at a premium. Timing is everything!!!

[BLI snowman]

More and more. It's a feeling that's been pretty sustaining. We'll see...

 

If current model trends are any indication, then our region will be just grossly overdue for some clearer and drier weather by mid November i.e. some more amplified patterns overhead.

[wx_statman]

Yes, that is correct.  But we only had snow & freezing weather for about 3 days before it turned into a miserable cold rain that quickly melted away all traces of the snow.  Meanwhile, all areas from about Salem northward enjoyed 10+ days of the goods and a white Christmas.  I consumed a lot of vodka that December.

 

Yeah, I know you guys got screwed with the "main event" that month. I remember!