November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

EPS looks much better 

Further east. Hmmm. We may get a cold pool yet!

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Further east. Hmmm. We may get a cold pool yet!

I think models are still really struggling with this system. Euro OP is so different.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I think models are still really struggling with this system. Euro OP is so different.

Perhaps the data being ingested or something is causing a bit of model confusion perhaps.

[Meatyorologist]

15 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I dunno, could've posted this....

 

or this....

or this...

or this....

 

Funny thing is, I look a lot like a young Jeff Daniels! Maybe Mitch Hedberg

[TacomaWx]

How is it possible that the EPS is so far off from the euro? I’m assuming the OP is right but seems like at 120 hours it should be a lot closer than that. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Things got real dark on here real quick once the best snow chances shifted south.  

They did? 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

How is it possible that the EPS is so far off from the euro? I’m assuming the OP is right but seems like at 120 hours it should be a lot closer than that. 

I don't see that big of a difference.   The 00Z EPS is warmer than its 12Z run at 120 hours.

[snow_wizard]

One thing I've noticed is there's a ridge over the center of the country for a lot of week 1 and then it migrates to more of a SE ridge toward the beginning of week 2.  That might set the foundation for better things during week 2 like tonight's ECMWF showed.  There have been times in the past a block migrated from about 160W to about 150W.  That often results in snow and cold in the NW Interior of WA migrating southward as the ridge position moves.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

How is it possible that the EPS is so far off from the euro? I’m assuming the OP is right but seems like at 120 hours it should be a lot closer than that. 

That's unusual for the ECMWF.  Usually the EPS is pretty much matching the operational for the first 7 days or so.

[snow_wizard]

EPS is on board with the ridge position changing about a week out.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't see that big of a difference.   The 00Z EPS is warmer than its 12Z run at 120 hours.

At the 500mb level though? It’s quite different clearly with the troughing over the PNW as opposed to going into California. I know that doesn’t necessarily mean it isn’t close to the same in surface details on the EPS but still. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

EPS is on board with the ridge position changing about a week out.

And that Canadian polar lobe is getting close.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Huskies win hurts Oregon again... very satisfying.  

Actually it doesn’t. No way in hell I wanted to see them get embarrassed by USC. Until Lanning is fired there will be many more dark days in Eugene. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

And that Canadian polar lobe is getting close.

Oh?

[Slushy Inch]

Looking at run to run change, you can see how things have shifted to give us more potential later on, like we saw in the OP.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty chilly looking.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM in 7 minutes

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

That's unusual for the ECMWF.  Usually the EPS is pretty much matching the operational for the first 7 days or so.

That’s what I thought. Usually they don’t seem so out of sync at this range. Not that I can remember anyways. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

At the 500mb level though? It’s quite different clearly with the troughing over the PNW as opposed to going into California. I know that doesn’t necessarily mean it isn’t close to the same in surface details on the EPS but still. 

Not sure... but it looks like there is significant troughing west of CA on the EPS by day 6 and 7.

[Meatyorologist]

With how much favorable blocking there will be, that polar lobe could definitely be a factor later on.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

At the 500mb level though? It’s quite different clearly with the troughing over the PNW as opposed to going into California. I know that doesn’t necessarily mean it isn’t close to the same in surface details on the EPS but still. 

I think there is still a chance the ECMWF operational could shift a bit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing I've noticed is there's a ridge over the center of the country for a lot of week 1 and then it migrates to more of a SE ridge toward the beginning of week 2.  That might set the foundation for better things during week 2 like tonight's ECMWF showed.  There have been times in the past a block migrated from about 160W to about 150W.  That often results in snow and cold in the NW Interior of WA migrating southward as the ridge position moves.

I’ve noticed a ridge centered more over the middle of the country generally correlates well to anafronts. 

[Kolk1604]

You love to see it on the EPS

[Meatyorologist]

The modeled longevity and persistence of NE Pac ridging is striking.

[TT-SEA]

Control run is more emphatic with CA troughing... not seeing huge differences though. 

 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Only 10 days out LOLOLOL

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

With how much favorable blocking there will be, that polar lobe could definitely be a factor later on.

I'm thrilled to see this second chance emerging.  As I mentioned earlier it's not unheard of to go from a marginal /messy situation to full on cold in one event.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

The modeled longevity and persistence of NE Pac ridging is striking.

February 2019.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

Only 10 days out LOLOLOL

It's kind of a continuation play though.

[Snownerd3000]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Huskies win hurts Oregon again... very satisfying.  

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's kind of a continuation play though.

If the ridge just keeps hanging out up there…good chance something works out eventually. No expectations from me on this with how bad the models have been the last couple days but it could end up being a case of delayed but not denied when we look back in a few weeks. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

February 2019.

Glad it's happening in December this time! I remember wondering what might have been had the atmosphere confided to a cold mode at a more favorable time of Winter.

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure... but it looks like there is significant troughing west of CA on the EPS by day 6 and 7.

Looking at it from and 850mb level this makes much more sense. Must just be the resolution on the EPS at 500mb. 

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Glad it's happening in December this time! I remember wondering what might have been had the atmosphere confided to a cold mode at a more favorable time of Winter.

Dude I was thinking the same thing. Plenty of potential for this happening now

EPS Day 9

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Glad it's happening in December this time! I remember wondering what might have been had the atmosphere confided to a cold mode at a more favorable time of Winter.

December is the absolutely best time for this to happen.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Ridge Bridge day 14

 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

December is the absolutely best time for this to happen.

Agreed. Sourced airmasses are maybe not *quite* as cold as early-mid Jan but still a plethora of potential and the added bonus of the holiday season, plus the lowest sun angles of the year.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Ridge Bridge day 14

 

That's beautiful. A good month ahead awaits.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

December is the absolutely best time for this to happen.

100%.  I know that January is capable of producing the lowest temps, but there is something special about this happening around the holidays.  Though I get regular snow December thru February, there is something different about December cold and snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ohhhhh.... The EPS is a welcomed sight tonight.