Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: EPS looks much betterĀ Further east. Hmmm. We may get a cold pool yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Further east. Hmmm. We may get a cold pool yet! I think models are still really struggling with this system. Euro OP is so different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said: I think models are still really struggling with this system. Euro OP is so different. Perhaps the data being ingested or something is causing a bit of model confusion perhaps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: I dunno, could've posted this.... Ā or this.... or this... or this.... Ā Funny thing is, I look a lot like a young Jeff Daniels! Maybe Mitch Hedberg 1 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining:Ā 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21:Ā 13" -2021-22:Ā 8.75" -2022-23:Ā 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall:Ā 0.25ā; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm):Ā 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth:Ā 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest:Ā 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 How is it possible that the EPS is so far off from the euro? Iām assuming the OP is right but seems like at 120 hours it should be a lot closer than that.Ā 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Things got real dark on here real quick once the best snow chances shifted south. Ā They did?Ā 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: How is it possible that the EPS is so far off from the euro? Iām assuming the OP is right but seems like at 120 hours it should be a lot closer than that.Ā I don't see that big of a difference.Ā Ā The 00Z EPS is warmer than its 12Z run at 120 hours. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 One thing I've noticed is there's a ridge over the center of the country for a lot of week 1 and then it migrates to more of a SE ridge toward the beginning of week 2.Ā That might set the foundation for better things during week 2 like tonight's ECMWF showed.Ā There have been times in the past a block migrated from about 160W to about 150W.Ā That often results in snow and cold in the NW Interior of WA migrating southward as the ridge position moves. 4 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Ā Winter 2023-24 stats Ā Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: How is it possible that the EPS is so far off from the euro? Iām assuming the OP is right but seems like at 120 hours it should be a lot closer than that.Ā That's unusual for the ECMWF.Ā Usually the EPS is pretty much matching the operational for the first 7 days or so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 EPS is on board with the ridge position changing about a week out. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Ā Winter 2023-24 stats Ā Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: I don't see that big of a difference.Ā Ā The 00Z EPS is warmer than its 12Z run at 120 hours. At the 500mb level though? Itās quite different clearly with the troughing over the PNW as opposed to going into California. I know that doesnāt necessarily mean it isnāt close to the same in surface details on the EPS but still.Ā 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: EPS is on board with the ridge position changing about a week out. And that Canadian polar lobe is getting close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Huskies win hurts Oregon again... very satisfying.Ā Ā Actually it doesnāt. No way in hell I wanted to see them get embarrassed by USC. Until Lanning is fired there will be many more dark days in Eugene.Ā 4 1 SnowfallĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Precip 2022-23: 95.0"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2021-22: 91.46"Ā 2020-21: 12.0"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2012-13: 78.45Ā Ā 2011-12: 98.5"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill!Ā Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said: And that Canadian polar lobe is getting close. Oh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Looking at run to run change, you can see how things have shifted to give us more potential later on, like we saw in the OP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Pretty chilly looking. 2 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Ā Winter 2023-24 stats Ā Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 6z NAM in 7 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: That's unusual for the ECMWF.Ā Usually the EPS is pretty much matching the operational for the first 7 days or so. Thatās what I thought. Usually they donāt seem so out of sync at this range. Not that I can remember anyways.Ā 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: At the 500mb level though? Itās quite different clearly with the troughing over the PNW as opposed to going into California. I know that doesnāt necessarily mean it isnāt close to the same in surface details on the EPS but still.Ā Not sure... but it looks like there is significant troughing west of CA on the EPS by day 6 and 7. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 With how much favorable blocking there will be, that polar lobe could definitely be a factor later on. 7 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining:Ā 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21:Ā 13" -2021-22:Ā 8.75" -2022-23:Ā 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall:Ā 0.25ā; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm):Ā 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth:Ā 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest:Ā 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: At the 500mb level though? Itās quite different clearly with the troughing over the PNW as opposed to going into California. I know that doesnāt necessarily mean it isnāt close to the same in surface details on the EPS but still.Ā I think there is still a chance the ECMWF operational could shift a bit. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Ā Winter 2023-24 stats Ā Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: One thing I've noticed is there's a ridge over the center of the country for a lot of week 1 and then it migrates to more of a SE ridge toward the beginning of week 2.Ā That might set the foundation for better things during week 2 like tonight's ECMWF showed.Ā There have been times in the past a block migrated from about 160W to about 150W.Ā That often results in snow and cold in the NW Interior of WA migrating southward as the ridge position moves. Iāve noticed a ridge centered more over the middle of the country generally correlates well to anafronts.Ā 1 1 1 SnowfallĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Precip 2022-23: 95.0"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2021-22: 91.46"Ā 2020-21: 12.0"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2012-13: 78.45Ā Ā 2011-12: 98.5"Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill!Ā Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 You love to see it on the EPS 5 Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 The modeled longevity and persistence of NE Pac ridging is striking. 7 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining:Ā 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21:Ā 13" -2021-22:Ā 8.75" -2022-23:Ā 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall:Ā 0.25ā; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm):Ā 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth:Ā 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest:Ā 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Control run is more emphatic with CA troughing... not seeing huge differences though.Ā Ā 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Only 10 days out LOLOLOL 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: With how much favorable blocking there will be, that polar lobe could definitely be a factor later on. I'm thrilled to see this second chance emerging.Ā As I mentioned earlier it's not unheard of to go from a marginal /messy situation to full on cold in one event. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Ā Winter 2023-24 stats Ā Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: The modeled longevity and persistence of NE Pac ridging is striking. February 2019. 8 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, DeepFriedEgg said: Only 10 days out LOLOLOL It's kind of a continuation play though. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Ā Winter 2023-24 stats Ā Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Huskies win hurts Oregon again... very satisfying.Ā Ā 2 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: It's kind of a continuation play though. If the ridge just keeps hanging out up thereā¦good chance something works out eventually. No expectations from me on this with how bad the models have been the last couple days but it could end up being a case of delayed but not denied when we look back in a few weeks.Ā 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: February 2019. Glad it's happening in December this time! I remember wondering what might have been had the atmosphere confided to a cold mode at a more favorable time of Winter. 9 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining:Ā 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21:Ā 13" -2021-22:Ā 8.75" -2022-23:Ā 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall:Ā 0.25ā; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm):Ā 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth:Ā 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest:Ā 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Not sure... but it looks like there is significant troughing west of CA on the EPS by day 6 and 7. Looking at it from and 850mb level this makes much more sense. Must just be the resolution on the EPS at 500mb.Ā 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: Glad it's happening in December this time! I remember wondering what might have been had the atmosphere confided to a cold mode at a more favorable time of Winter. Dude I was thinking the same thing. Plenty of potential for this happening now EPS Day 9 5 Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Glad it's happening in December this time! I remember wondering what might have been had the atmosphere confided to a cold mode at a more favorable time of Winter. December is the absolutely best time for this to happen. 6 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Ridge Bridge day 14 Ā 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: December is the absolutely best time for this to happen. Agreed. Sourced airmasses are maybe not *quite* as cold as early-mid Jan but still a plethora of potential and the added bonus of the holiday season, plus the lowest sun angles of the year. 7 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining:Ā 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21:Ā 13" -2021-22:Ā 8.75" -2022-23:Ā 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall:Ā 0.25ā; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm):Ā 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth:Ā 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest:Ā 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Ridge Bridge day 14 Ā That's beautiful. A good month ahead awaits. 8 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining:Ā 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21:Ā 13" -2021-22:Ā 8.75" -2022-23:Ā 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall:Ā 0.25ā; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm):Ā 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth:Ā 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest:Ā 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: December is the absolutely best time for this to happen. 100%.Ā I know that January is capable of producing the lowest temps, but there is something special about this happening around the holidays.Ā Though I get regular snow December thru February, there is something different about December cold and snow. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Ohhhhh.... The EPS is a welcomed sight tonight. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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