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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

Iceresistance

By Iceresistance
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by smerfylicious,

A nice day for a newborn. Here's bellevue from a delivery room. I'll keep yall posted

Congrats!!!

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Posted by SouthHillJimmy,

Long time lurker here, decided to make an account and interact. This week will definitely be one hell of a ride!

Welcome Jimmy!

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smerfylicious
smerfylicious

A nice day for a newborn. Here's bellevue from a delivery room. I'll keep yall posted

SilverFallsAndrew
SilverFallsAndrew

Ummm we had our first freeze… School delay, and 1.5” of snow. 

MossMan
MossMan

Phantom snow has begun! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Must post a good map to atone for being an assshole for making sure to post the warm map.

Good Lord.     Getting into the weeds now Chris.    

Taking the run as it comes... and that development for Thursday is potentially huge.   That is not just a throw away map.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, GHweatherChris said:

I am not wrong.

Yeah... you are.    Wednesday is a huge point of discussion and the ECMWF is very important.   And now Thursday is potentially huge.    It is what is.     You can chase me all you want... but I don't care.    What I post is pertinent to the discussion... good or bad.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Things get very interesting to the south on Thursday...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-9960800.png

Wow I bet the 10:1 map is bonkers lol.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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WeatherGeek2022 Proficient

WeatherGeek2022

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... you are.    Wednesday is a huge point of discussion and the ECMWF is very important.   And now Thursday is potentially huge.    It is what is.     You can chase me all you want... but I don't care.    What I post is pertinent to the discussion... good or bad.

hoping the big one is coming 😉

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
Posted

I'm so sorry for the radio silence y'all... It took 21 years but my Mom's lactose intolerance has finally chosen to thrust itself upon my poor insides with a fury known by only few men.

I am suffering. Rob. Please. I am begging you, take over! 😭

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
Posted
Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Yep. PDX metro temps fall to 33-34 4 PM - 10 PM Thursday. 32 by 4 AM Friday. Snow!

As long as that low is positioned like that and there is even a half decent airmass in the basin, the gorge will do its thing and temps will probably be alright IMO. 

Of course the track of this low will change a bunch of times between now and then...

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

That anafront Wednesday night is starting to look like another legit chance of snow for the Seattle area.  Damn this is getting complicated.  Everett northward looks golden right now IMO.  It appears there may be more chances for snow in other area as the pattern unfolds as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm so sorry for the radio silence y'all... It took 21 years but my Mom's lactose intolerance has finally chosen to thrust itself upon my poor insides with a fury known by only few men.

I am suffering. Rob. Please. I am begging you, take over! 😭

Quite descriptive!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm so sorry for the radio silence y'all... It took 21 years but my Mom's lactose intolerance has finally chosen to thrust itself upon my poor insides with a fury known by only few men.

I am suffering. Rob. Please. I am begging you, take over! 😭

Jeez. Sorry. Yeah I got this.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

It just kills me how close this pattern is to being great.  Still no way to know just how the details will pan out of course.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Requiem Grand Master

Requiem

Posted
Posted

I like that the EURO has picked up that feature with the low swinging up from the south.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

That’s about as bad a landing spot as you can get. Non-event south of everett. Next! 

This is subject to change on very short notice.  No matter what it's going to get cold and there will be snow chances.  Just be patient.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It just kills me how close this pattern is to being great.  Still no way to know just how the details will pan out of course.

Have to say... anafront situation is much more interesting.    And those tend to end up farther north than shown.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7

500h_anom.na.png

Major potential beyond this frame.  Ridge position is more favorable.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Have to say... anafront situation is much more interesting.    And those tend to end up farther north than shown.

It is. The dream of arctic air is dead. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

No cold air of any kind on this run after the first trough unlike the GFS which is a pure garbage.

Yeah... have to agree on GFS surface details.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8

500h_anom.na.png

Maybe we will just have to wait a few extra days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

No cold air of any kind on this run after the first trough unlike the GFS which is a pure garbage.

Now that the euro is showing that anafront potential like the gfs has been for awhile this could be a pretty good situation down there better than nothing! 

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