November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[DeepFriedEgg]

No cold pool UGH. Another anafront hour 174 but temps too warm...

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is. The dream of arctic air is dead. 

Yep unless there are sudden changes on the next 3 runs. There won't be, but dang it would be nice.

6z GFS in 2 hours 51 minutes

[Phishy Wx]

lol euro even wants to change Spokane to rain on wednesday evening

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

No cold air of any kind on this run after the first trough unlike the GFS which is a pure garbage.

Conflicting reports! 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Wow. This sucks big time. GFS is truly an embarrassment. Needs major upgrades...

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8

Looks like the beginning of what the GEM was showing on some crazy runs. Trough might deepen but not move south.

[Cold Snap]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good Lord.     Getting into the weeds now Chris.    

Taking the run as it comes... and that development for Thursday is potentially huge.   That is not just a throw away map.  

Do you think that what it’s showing for Thursday has the chance of trending west at all?

[Requiem]

Really not *horrible*-- that setup the EURO shows will give PDX some snow at face value. 

[Meatyorologist]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Quite descriptive!  

If I'm suffering, so should you all too! 

[snow_wizard]

No shortage of chances and resets in this run.  Huge potential.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

Do you think that what it’s showing for Thursday has the chance of trending west at all?

Anafront placement is a totally different thing... definitely could trend north and west.    That is very common.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Now that the euro is showing that anafront potential like the gfs has been for awhile this could be a pretty good situation down there better than nothing! 

Maybe here too with the anafront.  The late run looks full of promise on this run too.  Being real...nothing but below normal temps and good potential being shown.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Cascadia_Wx]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Geez I can see why Jim gets annoyed sometimes.

Pepto over Puget or

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Things got real dark on here real quick once the best snow chances shifted south.  

[HuskyMaestro]

Euro knows real well on how to shatter some hearts. How do things look past early December? Are we still in a colder pattern at least?

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Really not *horrible*-- that setup the EURO shows will give PDX some snow at face value. 

It is certainly promising but one unfortunate thing is the Euro shows absolutely no cold air in the basin at that time. It is 34F in The Dalles with relatively high DPs. Not ideal but it may be just enough. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Maybe here too with the anafront.  The late run looks full of promise on this run too.  Being real...nothing but below normal temps and good potential being shown.

Think Jesse made a pretty good point earlier that the overall pattern stays in place even with the Wednesday event not working out in the short term. The long range on a lot of the models has potential with the Alaska blocking but the way the short term chaos has gone hard to get too excited yet. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Still a lot of snow over puget sound but temps are about 5 degrees to high for anything spectacular 

 

 

 

 

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

Similar to the Euro CMC

i am operating on fumes

[snow_wizard]

Kind of an OMG developing late run.  We are in for a ride guys.  Strap in!

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Things got real dark on here real quick once the best snow chances shifted south.  

I'm in Portland but I'm still not thrilled. The anafront setup is very fragile and honestly will likely trend north. What I really wanted to see was a cold pool, and the euro has nothing of the sort.

[Deweydog]

Kinda reminds me of late December ‘92.

30. Years.

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

It is certainly promising but one unfortunate thing is the Euro shows absolutely no cold air in the basin at that time. It is 34F in The Dalles with relatively high DPs. Not ideal but it may be just enough. 

That setup really has nothing to do with cold air on the east side. It’s a stalled front.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

It is certainly promising but one unfortunate thing is the Euro shows absolutely no cold air in the basin at that time. It is 34F in The Dalles with relatively high DPs. Not ideal but it may be just enough. 

Often dependent on precip rates too and pulling whatever cold air aloft there is down to the surface. 

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Anafront placement is a totally different thing... definitely could trend north and west.    That is very common.

Yup will end up right over Puget Sound. 

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Do you think that what it’s showing for Thursday has the chance of trending west at all?

You would need the low to come in much further north. Of course that would screw people to the south...but that's usually how this works.

Here is the 00z Euro 

 

00z GFS

 

Pretty remarkably good agreement between the GFS and Euro on the strength and position of this low. 

The GEM has it too but it is much weaker and even further south. 

 

Given this feature is showing up on all 3 models now and for more than 1 run now, it is starting to get a bit interesting. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Kinda reminds me of late December ‘92.

30. Years.

That was a really good one for the Central WV. 

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Things got real dark on here real quick once the best snow chances shifted south.  

My backyard isn't in Oregon.

[Kolk1604]

So much arctic air just north of the border at hour 210!!

[SouthHillFrosty]

@TigerWoodsLibido

[Dave]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Even Eugene gets in on the action...

 

I will grab a clean plate this time and preserve it in my freezer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anafronts have much less propensity to move 300 miles north or south as a developing low. But 20-30 miles can make a massive difference because if you aren’t under the heavy precip band then you aren’t going to get snow. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 Polar lobe almost into northeast Washington

 

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

That setup really has nothing to do with cold air on the east side. It’s a stalled front.

Yeah which is unfortunate because these isothermal percip rate dependent setups are almost impossible to predict as far as which spots actually get the snow. The lucky people that are under the heaviest rates get it while the rest watch 34F rain/snow mix.

Having some cold air to the east to draw in would have made it much more confidence inspiring. 

[RayRay]

my soul feels like it’s melting with the chances of lowland snow disappearing right in front of my eyes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10 Polar lobe almost into northeast Washington

 

What a weird pattern. 

[snow_wizard]

Wicked CAA into WA at the end.  We're going to be exhausted by the time this all plays out.

[Gradient Keeper]

Good lord

[Cold Snap]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Anafront placement is a totally different thing... definitely could trend north and west.    That is very common.

Good to know the Seattle area could have another chance Thursday if Wednesday doesn’t work out.