November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be a big event in NorCal.

[TacomaWx]

Another decently snowy run down in Oregon. 

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX Snow. 850s cool to -7c with east wind.

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Where to, gumshoe?

Houston

[Requiem]

Nice to see the GFS keeping that weird feature swinging up from NorCal bringing snow to the W. Valley. Not hedging my bets, but an interesting progression if we can get even some weak offshore flow.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim gonna get buried. Non event for most of us. Even up here I doubt this rivals early November. 

I don't think so.    ECMWF shows 925 temps around +2C or +3C with a SW wind during the heaviest precip on Wednesday.   GFS is just being silly.   Remember it showed 20+ inches for snow for Portland at one point in early November.    And buried Seattle on a few runs.   None of it happened.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2nd run in a row to eject the low up through Central Oregon with widespread snow across most of Oregon and eastern Washington . 

[bainbridgekid]

The 00z bombs the low 30mb from 1007mb to 977mb in just 18 hours. That would be a very unusual progression for a low sliding SE down the Eastern edge of a ridge. You’d expect that kind of strengthening from a low coming in from the WSW on a strong jet. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen. But it is unusual.

[Skagit Weather]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Mind posting a map? How does it look just to your south? 

This is the best zoom I have, but you look like you're just on the southern edge of the strong band that supposedly is going to pop up tomorrow night.

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 6:

4 Run Trend:

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

ICON snow by early Thursday morning

Germans on our side now. 

[Jbolin]

Too much time and emotion being invested in yet another rug pull courtesy of the ECMWF.

Oh well.

 

[TT-SEA]

Here are 925 temps at 4 a.m. on Wednesday morning per the 18Z ECMWF... and the line is moving north at that time.    This is not a set up that buries my area.    

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

This is the best zoom I have, but you look like you're just on the southern edge of the strong band that supposedly is going to pop up tomorrow night.

Thanks! 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Here are 925 temps at 4 a.m. on Wednesday morning per the 18Z ECMWF... and the line is moving north at that time.    This is not a set up that buries my area.    

Nor Seattle.

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 6:

4 Run Trend:

[Requiem]

Call me delusional but I still feel like some of those late week lows may be in play. Especially if we can get one to track across Southern Oregon while offshore flow kicks up over the valley. It's not an especially strong cold pool-- but it's there nonetheless.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The 00z bombs the low 30mb from 1007mb to 977mb in just 18 hours. That would be a very unusual progression for a low sliding SE down the Eastern edge of a ridge. You’d expect that kind of strengthening from a low coming in from the WSW on a strong jet. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen. But it is unusual.

Interesting. Models might struggle with this pattern right until until 24hrs out 

[Cold Snap]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Still not even close to sold on that snowstorm for Seattle. Makes no climatological sense and has no precedent as far as I am aware. Reminds me of the snows predicted for 1/2/2022.

Yeah this is starting to remind me of that setup as well with how borderline this is. I still managed 2 inches in an hour from that. Crazy snowfall rate that was dragging that snow level down and it only lasted for that hour as well.

[The Cats Meow]

3 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Too much time and emotion being invested in yet another rug pull courtesy of the ECMWF.

Oh well.

 

It's not a rug pull.  The models just have a hard time with the low dropping south and developing over the water off the BC Coast.  Happens all the time in the winter.  Could still change yet again but as things get closer it seems unlikely.

 

[Winterdog]

What a night. Model suckage and the Cougars are leading the Huskies

[Meatyorologist]

If the GFS does what I think it's trying to do, I'm gonna lose it

[HuskyMaestro]

Pardon my amateur layperson, why is it bad if the low bombs out? Nor'easters along the Atlantic bomb out and give snowstorms along the East Coast? Or is that just wildly different from what's happening here? 

[Gradient Keeper]

Great run for PDX/Oregon. Cold air stuck in place Gorge/East with east winds.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

29 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Full on bombogenesis on the 00z GFS. Low bombs to 976mb. Not what you want to see.

Yep this one is about done. Don't like how things look for even here now.

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 8:

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Pardon my amateur layperson, why is it bad if the low bombs out? Nor'easters along the Atlantic bomb out and give snowstorms along the East Coast? Or is that just wildly different from what's happening here? 

We are wrong side of the bomb on this coast... it usually means SW flow for the Seattle area.

[Weiner Warrior]

A little more to freshen up the snow

[The Cats Meow]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We are wrong side of the bomb on this coast... it usually means SW flow for the Seattle area.

what he said

lots of southerly flow until the low sinks south of the area

we need to thread the needle around here and this time it doesn't look like it will work out for us

maybe later in the week a disturbance will slide by to the south and pull some some cold air and mix with some light precipitation flowing north

[bainbridgekid]

3 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Pardon my amateur layperson, why is it bad if the low bombs out? Nor'easters along the Atlantic bomb out and give snowstorms along the East Coast? Or is that just wildly different from what's happening here? 

On the East Coast, Nor’Easters bomb out offshore to the East of the major cities. Their counter clockwise motion sucks arctic air into the storm from their NW keeping the cities cold and snowy.  The opposite happens here since the counter clockwise motion of a bombing low to our West pushes milder SW onshore flow into our area.

[Cloud]

Models are giving a harsh reminder not to spike the football too early. And how fickle the details can be, even in the very near term. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Steady stream of liquid precipitation over Victoria this evening. It looks like there's a strong rain shadow over the east coast of the island with this WNW flow. There's another band hung up over North Vancouver.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looking like a somewhat decent run for the Portland area and a long run of chilly temps 

 

[snow_wizard]

Bloody cold GFS run.  I just hope that shot of snow works out for the Seattle area on Wednesday.  If so there will be some happy people on here.  Stays cold after that!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looking like a somewhat decent run for the Portland area and a long run of chilly temps 

 

WTF?  Why the puke?

[Gradient Keeper]

Bingo! Jet suppression!

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 9:

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF?  Why the puke?

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sarcasm

[seattleweatherguy]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Bloody cold GFS run.  I just hope that shot of snow works out for the Seattle area on Wednesday.  If so there will be some happy people on here.  Stays cold after that!

Is it cold enough?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM puts a nice AR into SW Oregon.