November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[T-Town]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Lmao ok Russell Wilson 

Someone’s gonna get snow. Why not you Russ?

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Everyone think eastward shift. Picture the 00z GFS and EURO model as it's coming out. Picture the trough shifted to the east 150-200 miles. Believe it to be true. We have a 1.9% chance of this! C'MON!!!!

Oh Rob... I love the positivity. I know it's not coming from naivety but rather a passion for COLD and SNOW; and honestly, sometimes the positivity is needed.

[Terreboner]

Let's ride!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Oh Rob... I love the positivity. I know it's not coming from naivety but rather a passion for COLD and SNOW; and honestly, sometimes the positivity is needed.

Appreciate it. Yeah. I want everyone to get Cold and SNOW! It has worked before!

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Appreciate it. Yeah. I want everyone to get Cold and SNOW! It has worked before!

I'm feeling a December 2008 on steroids.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Appreciate it. Yeah. I want everyone to get Cold and SNOW! It has worked before!

I hope it's one of those things that's just modeled wrong

[Meatyorologist]

Block further west on the 18z Euro by hr90. Clearly models have latched on to some details w/ that bombing low south of the Aleutians that weren't visible a few days ago.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Block further west on the 18z Euro by hr90. Clearly models have latched on to some details w/ that bombing low south of the Aleutians that weren't visible a few days ago.

Yeah. That sucks. Any further west and this really sucks even more. We should boycott the Euro entirely and only use a blend of the GEFS/GFS/GEM/CMCE.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I will have a good laugh if it’s a rug pull. Because why not? It’s not as if getting upset will magically make the snow come back.

[antipex]

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, antipex said:

Just a bit more favorable for Cold and SNOW! than living in Gresham, eh?

[Kolk1604]

00z NBM 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I will have a good laugh if it’s a rug pull. Because why not? It’s not as if getting upset will magically make the snow come back.

True, and the EURO is flirting with this becoming a non-event for nearly everyone.

[GHweatherChris]

[antipex]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Just a bit more favorable for Cold and SNOW! than living in Gresham, eh?

Been snow on the ground since the 8th and probably won’t see bare ground until March. Already 7 highs below 32 this month and three nights in single digits.

[Kolk1604]

Yo Rob does the 18z GEFS work for you? 

 

[North_County]

Enormous grain of salt, but my weather app shows measurable new snowfall of 1+ inches for at least seven straight days beginning on Tuesday. I don't know that I have ever seen that for November/first week of December.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yo Rob does the 18z GEFS work for you? 

 

 

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yo Rob does the 18z GEFS work for you? 

 

Hell yeah it does. Prolific backdoor low level cold. The Gorge and Columbia Basin become frigid.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

36F with some pleasant conditions.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

True, and the EURO is flirting with this becoming a non-event for nearly everyone.

People asked for a region-wide event. Might end up being region-wide cold rain!

“Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it.”

[TacomaWx]

What is the 18z looking like? I’m hoping for improvements on the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning potential. This event would be salvageable for me if we can just manage a bit of accumulating snowfall from an overrunning event. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

People asked for a region-wide event. Might end up being region-wide cold rain!

“Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it.”

The mountains and East of the mountains should do quite well.  Hope someone on the West side can score.  

[Terreboner]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

People asked for a region-wide event. Might end up being region-wide cold rain!

“Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it.”

The models suck.  I think all the money that is poured into them, a good percentage is going into pockets.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

All the above said, I hope these are not totally out to lunch. Would be fun!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Terreboner said:

The models suck.  I think all the money that is poured into them, a good percentage is going into pockets.

There is no conspiracy or foul play. Complex chaotic systems are difficult to accurately model.

[SouthHillFrosty]

14 minutes ago, SouthHillJimmy said:

Long time lurker here, decided to make an account and interact. This week will definitely be one hell of a ride!

Welcome! I just moved away from South Hill!

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

All the above said, I hope these are not totally out to lunch. Would be fun!

Thought I had unknowingly relapsed until I saw cm

[Terreboner]

11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There is no conspiracy or foul play. Complex chaotic systems are difficult to accurately model.

Just ask Jeff Goldblum.

[Cold Snap]

00z NAM 24 hour snow ending 10am Monday if anyone is curious. Nice little dusting in some places. Even 0.1” at PDX.

[weatherwonder]

Let’s do this!

time for the ups and downs and popcorn and drinks for the exciting model riding ahead!

Its coming!

winter uncancel

 

 

 

[Meatyorologist]

Favorable shift on the ICON.

[SouthHillJimmy]

30 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Welcome! I just moved away from South Hill!

Nice! I’m at about 600ft elevation hoping I can get At least an inch or two this week

[Meatyorologist]

[Meatyorologist]

I'm in good spirits. Not much to lose. If an improving trend were to start, now is about as late as it would, mayyybe as late as 12z or so tomorrow.

I got the 00z GFS.

[Requiem]

Not certain if elevation will really make a difference but I'm hoping that 1k feet comes in clutch if things are marginal 

[Deweydog]

Just now, Requiem said:

Not certain if elevation will really make a difference but I'm hoping that 1k feet comes in clutch if things are marginal 

Elevation will matter next week.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, SouthHillJimmy said:

Long time lurker here, decided to make an account and interact. This week will definitely be one hell of a ride!

Welcome! Joining will most definitely be the worst best decision of your life!

[Terreboner]

18z is the drunk uncle.  00z is a finely aged Cabernet Sauvignon.

Let's go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, SouthHillJimmy said:

Long time lurker here, decided to make an account and interact. This week will definitely be one hell of a ride!

Welcome to the chaos! Joining will most definitely be the best worst decision of your life!

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 0 (Init):

4 Run Trend: