November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Gradient Keeper]

Trending quite a bit colder at Day 7 too

[AlTahoe]

In the last 3 days alone the models have shown Tahoe getting 60" of snow, zero snow but cold, no snow but a warm tropical rain storm, and finally multiple cold snow storms for next week. Safe to say the details are probably going to change for everyone a few more times

[Nov1985]

Ensemble mean trend through Friday night

[Gradient Keeper]

Maybe 00z runs tonight will be mildly interesting. Cautiously optimistic.

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Maybe 00z runs tonight will be mildly interesting. Cautiously optimistic.

I expect an exquisite night shift later on!!!  No, I demand it!!!!

[Phishy Wx]

Good Morning!

 

what did I miss?

[Nov1985]

GEFS 4" 24-hr snowfall probabilities for Seattle area peak on Wednesday. And even some decent chances for an inch of something cold and wet this coming Monday. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

11 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Arctic air be like

 

all your arctic air are belong to BC

[Skagit Weather]

I would definitely take the 18z. A bunch of sloppy snow/rain up here tomorrow night and a possible snow chance next week with lots of days right around freezing. Looks great!

[Brennan]

Watching this frame for the NW interior. 

[Terreboner]

6 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Watching this frame for the NW interior. 

Some nice banding over here.  One of those days where a few bands march from north to south down the Hwy 97 corridor and drop a half inch to inch apiece.  I'm good with it.

[Nov1985]

5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I would definitely take the 18z. A bunch of sloppy snow/rain up here tomorrow night and a possible snow chance next week with lots of days right around freezing. Looks great!

Agreed. This looks fine for some normal life disruption next week. Not -17C 850T or -7°F in Everett. The way the models have been overplaying cold 7 or 10 days out in recent years has made the recent events feel anticlimactic in the days leading up to the first snow.  But this could be the 4th winter in a row with heavy snow IMBY.

[TacomaWx]

Well it looks like we still have no idea what’s going on

[Phishy Wx]

well at least it's getting snowier

 

[Nov1985]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Well it looks like we still have no idea what’s going on

Wish we had the technology to make computer models that could effectively forecast the weather a few days out.

[RentonHill]

Itd be hilarious if the older GFS/GEFS turned out to be closest on the details but with a totally different pattern in the upper levels than it originally showed 

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, Nov1985 said:

Wish we had the technology to make computer models that could effectively forecast the weather a few days out.

Wouldn't that sort of ruin this part of the process though?

[Nov1985]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Wouldn't that sort of ruin this part of the process though?

Ya, I'd have to spend time with my wife instead I guess. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

4 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Wish we had the technology to make computer models that could effectively forecast the weather a few days out.

seems it's gotten worse than a decade ago? idk might be imagining things.

[Terreboner]

3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Wouldn't that sort of ruin this part of the process though?

If models were exactly what was going to happen then it would be no fun at all.  I wish we still had to look outside and watch our thermometer/humidity/barometer.  Those were the days.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Wish we had the technology to make computer models that could effectively forecast the weather a few days out.

It wouldn’t be nearly as much fun on the forum though. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

seems it's gotten worse than a decade ago? idk might be imagining things.

They were sure spot on back in December 2008! Perhaps we need to bring the good old MRF back! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The snowfall forecast for the lowlands beyond 24hrs isn't any better now than it was in 1990. There's definitely other areas that have advanced a bunch but with winter weather it's no better. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

They were sure spot on back in December 2008! Perhaps we need to bring the good old MRF back! 

A broken clock.

[Gradient Keeper]

What is the GLAAM showing though? Everything rides on it!

[Kolk1604]

18z New GFS, Day 10

[Terreboner]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

18z New GFS, Day 10

That is real crap.  If that verifies then we can trust nothing.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Pricey!

Inflation 

[Gradient Keeper]

I could get used to seeing this the remainder of the Winter.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The snowfall forecast for the lowlands beyond 24hrs isn't any better now than it was in 1990. There's definitely other areas that have advanced a bunch but with winter weather it's no better. 

Modeling has improved drastically since 1990. It’s not even debatable. With that, snowfall forecasting has improved dramatically, but so have our expectations, accessibility and the sheer volume of information. It’s now like drinking from a firehose.

[ShawniganLake]

Very mild out ahead of tonight’s front. Breezy and low 50s here

[Nov1985]

We didn't have the HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR in 1990.

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

That is real crap.  If that verifies then we can trust nothing.

GFS gets an upgrade and nothings changed. 

What it gives one run, takes away the next. 

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I could get used to seeing this the remainder of the Winter.

#LaNinaInfraredLoop

[Cold Snap]

Good take from the Seattle Weather Blog!

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

GFS gets an upgrade and nothings changed. 

What it gives one run, takes away the next. 

What some consider an upgrade, others consider a downgrade.

[Skagit Weather]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The snowfall forecast for the lowlands beyond 24hrs isn't any better now than it was in 1990. There's definitely other areas that have advanced a bunch but with winter weather it's no better. 

I would say there's been a noticeable improvement in non-borderline setups, even within the last couple of years. If I remember correctly, the snowfall forecasts for last December after the cold air was in place weren't too bad.

The problem is most of the time we get most of our snow in borderline setups and those are still kind of a toss up. But I think that if you took an average of the snow forecast by different model runs "x days" before, you'd probably still see an improvement over the last couple decades.

[SnowPlz]

So I bought this for nothing

[TT-SEA]

Wow... Beavers.   

Even if they lose they still made it a great game.   28 unanswered points! 

[FroYoBro]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Wow... Beavers.   

Even if they lose they still made it a great game.   28 unanswered points! 

How difficult is it for you to keep your off topic tweets out of this thread?