November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Terreboner]

5 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Just got off the conference call with Culver Josh and bassaholic meat wagon. Next week isn’t looking too snowy for the lowlanders and people south of about 48 degrees latitude unless you’re over 4000’. Temps are pretty marginal this go round. The southerlies will take over. I wanna thank Dewey Matt for chiming in on the call,  he has a lot of knowledgeable info on people that live near Stampede Pass, i.e. Phil which led me to believe that in about two weeks the pattern will reset again but with much more AAM and less +pna. How he knows is anyones guess. 

Hitting the bottle already?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is exactly one of the reasons I'm drawn to weather events west of the cascades,  the element of surprise is fascinating to me and right when we think we've experienced every situation when it comes to producing snowfall around here we have something like Feb 2021.  I've spent 35 years watching and learning about snow events in the hood canal area and I feel like I've got a pretty good handle on looking at a set up and knowing if it will deliver a good snowfall or not and to this day February 2019 still blows my mind what I witnessed out here. I knew it had the potential to be a big event but it exceeded what I thought was possible out here for a heavy snow event. To this day it was one of the most amazing moments I spent with my son standing on our deck together watching the thunder snow happen. I told him it was a special moment we spent together and we might never see anything like it again! We stood outside for 1 hr watching in amazement as it snowed 4 inches in 1 hr. Pics are that night during the thunder snow and the next morning.  Most I measured was 38 inches on the ground but we had about 50 inches of snowfall in a 3 day period. 

Me and Andrew have gotta get up to y'all's place sometime. Looks like fun!

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is exactly one of the reasons I'm drawn to weather events west of the cascades,  the element of surprise is fascinating to me and right when we think we've experienced every situation when it comes to producing snowfall around here we have something like Feb 2021.  I've spent 35 years watching and learning about snow events in the hood canal area and I feel like I've got a pretty good handle on looking at a set up and knowing if it will deliver a good snowfall or not and to this day February 2019 still blows my mind what I witnessed out here. I knew it had the potential to be a big event but it exceeded what I thought was possible out here for a heavy snow event. To this day it was one of the most amazing moments I spent with my son standing on our deck together watching the thunder snow happen. I told him it was a special moment we spent together and we might never see anything like it again! We stood outside for 1 hr watching in amazement as it snowed 4 inches in 1 hr. Pics are that night during the thunder snow and the next morning.  Most I measured was 38 inches on the ground but we had about 50 inches of snowfall in a 3 day period. 

I've seen you post that second pic of the road 100 times, yet my brain still can't process that it's the Hood Canal and not Omak or Leavenworth.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember that second pic when you posted it... such an amazing sight.    

Tim that second pic is probably my favorite snow pic in this area I've ever taken.  That was 2 miles down road from my house. Looks like Snoqualmie pass or something.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Me and Andrew have gotta get up to y'all's place sometime. Looks like fun!

That pic is not at my cabin that's home at hood canal.

[gusky]

Thoughts on TMRW night? Obviously, there's no hope of a lot of snow but looks like an inch or less if a CVZN forms is reasonably likely.

[Deweydog]

18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I feel something biiiig brewing this winter. Maybe not next week though 

When?????????????????!??

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I've seen you post that second pic of the road 100 times, yet my brain still can't process that it's the Hood Canal and not Omak or Leavenworth.

I look at that pic all the time lol. 

[Terreboner]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Tim that second pic is probably my favorite snow pic in this area I've ever taken.  That was 2 miles down road from my house. Looks like Snoqualmie pass or something.  

That upslope in Hood Canal is legendary.  I believe it was Nov 2005, it was snowing in Everett but you guys were getting the craziness. Something like 2-3 inch per hour rates.  I almost hopped in my truck and cruised out there.

[gusky]

20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I feel something biiiig brewing this winter. Maybe not next week though 

My bones are telling me it'll be Febrewary (pun intended) for some sneaky snow.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS settles into a nice chilly groove after the initial period of potential snow.

The way I'm looking at this is we have already clinched the coldest November of the century and worse case scenario is some lowland snow and solidly below normal temps for the first third of December.  Pretty hard to complain with most of the winter still ahead of us.  This could easily be shaping up to be something special this season.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, gusky said:

My bones are telling me it'll be Febrewary (pun intended) for some sneaky snow.

I think December will have something pretty solid.  January is the big wild card.  If we can break the January curse this could be a big winter.

[Terreboner]

Just watched Snyder's new video.  Euro and GFS sure showing a nice Anafront signature Thursday-ish, very similar to February 2019.  Surprised nobody has mentioned this too much.  TWL, Andrew, High Desert Mat, Dareduck, Me :).

[snow_wizard]

While I agree the blocking is probably going to be a bit too far west for the ultimate scenario to happen there is still time for the models to shift a tad more impressive in the home stretch which would equate to a pretty nice event.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That pic is not at my cabin that's home at hood canal.

Booya! Love the look! Hope business picks up and y'all get some proper employees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

Just watched Snyder's new video.  Euro and GFS sure showing a nice Anafront signature Thursday-ish, very similar to February 2019.  Surprised nobody has mentioned this too much.  TWL, Andrew, High Desert Mat, Dareduck, Me :).

I mentioned it last night, but you were drunk.

[snow maniac]

32 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

South Sound snow hole is very apparent. Called this days ago.

Yep. NW flow sucks for south, and south central sounders.

nothing worst then seeing snow piling up everywhere around me and nothing here.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS stays chilly forever.  This is getting impressive from a sustained below temperature standpoint alone.

[Terreboner]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I mentioned it last night, but you were drunk.

I haven't been drunk in a while.  Been taking it easy.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, snow maniac said:

Yep. NW flow sucks for south, and south central sounders.

nothing worst then seeing snow piling up everywhere around me and nothing here.

Take with a grain of salt at this point.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I mentioned it last night, but you were drunk.

And I said mentioned too much :).  Didn't say not at all.

[Meatyorologist]

21 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

When?????????????????!??

March 10th

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Booya! Love the look! Hope business picks up and y'all get some proper employees.

We are very busy at my shop just need more help.  I have work booked out over a month. Very hard to find solid people and I'm extremely picky who works for me. I'm very ocd and very attention to detail working on people's cars and trucks and its very hard to find good automotive technicians. 

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, snow maniac said:

Yep. NW flow sucks for south, and south central sounders.

nothing worst then seeing snow piling up everywhere around me and nothing here.

Imagine living outside a LES band around Buffalo and getting skunked while the next zip code over gets buried 

[snow_wizard]

Just exciting to see the EPS showing the PNA, EPO, and NAO all being solidly minus for a long period.  Good things happen with that.  Pacific is basically shut down except right along the coast.

I'm thinking people are going to be feeling pretty good about things a week from now.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Gotta like the last few days of the EPS.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

11 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Just watched Snyder's new video.  Euro and GFS sure showing a nice Anafront signature Thursday-ish, very similar to February 2019.  Surprised nobody has mentioned this too much.  TWL, Andrew, High Desert Mat, Dareduck, Me :).

Those are some of our classic events. We shall see what happens.

[Terreboner]

3 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Imagine living outside a LES band around Buffalo and getting skunked while the next zip code over gets buried 

At least they can forecast the location with decent accuracy.  I would say the forecasting in the PNW has to be the most challenging in the country.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z NAM is running. Time for me to look at trends over the past 8-12 runs and those important notches. Always notches.

18z GFS in 1 hour 35 minutes. Let's trend things east as they so often do within 96 hours. C'MON!!!!!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I haven't been drunk in a while.  Been taking it easy.

Im teasing. I think there is some anafront  potential. 

[High Desert Mat?]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Im teasing. I think there is some anafront  potential. 

His in a while and your in a while may be perspective Andrew. Lol

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Gotta like the last few days of the EPS.  

The run is nothing but cold.  This might be one of those seasons.

[ShawniganLake]

22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS settles into a nice chilly groove after the initial period of potential snow.

The way I'm looking at this is we have already clinched the coldest November of the century and worse case scenario is some lowland snow and solidly below normal temps for the first third of December.  Pretty hard to complain with most of the winter still ahead of us.  This could easily be shaping up to be something special this season.

Coldest November of the millennium too!

[Brennan]

I'm getting January 25-29th 2002 vibes for the NW interior. 

[ShawniganLake]

Wind warning issued here. 55mph gusts expected tonight 

[Brennan]

I find it bizarre that this is going to be the coldest November of the century so far. It has seemed like anything but that up here in Bellingham. I work at BLI and start at 4am. We send a 5:45AM flight out every morning, and we've only deiced a handful of times, and I've yet to even wear gloves! I'm sure that'll change next week... But anyway, I'm shocked by the data Snowwiz.. I haven't looked at it, but taking your word for it! 

[Terreboner]

6 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

His in a while and your in a while may be perspective Andrew. Lol

Last time was Nov. 5th, on the way home from Vegas.  Just slightly buzzed a couple times since.

Now, if that anafront comes through middle of the week then that would change :).

[Brennan]

Also, does anyone have any idea what it'll be like in Leavenworth face value Tuesday through Thursday?

[Meatyorologist]

40 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I look at that pic all the time lol. 

Tue-Sat could be an incredible stretch for your location

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Brennan said:

I find it bizarre that this is going to be the coldest November of the century so far. It has seemed like anything but that up here in Bellingham. I work at BLI and start at 4am. We send a 5:45AM flight out every morning, and we've only deiced a handful of times, and I've yet to even wear gloves! I'm sure that'll change next week... But anyway, I'm shocked by the data Snowwiz.. I haven't looked at it, but taking your word for it! 

Totally agree... it has been one of the most pleasant Novembers I can remember.   It has not seemed unusually cold.    But its all relative since wind and rain every day like we often have in November would be warmer but seem colder.