November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[SilverFallsAndrew]

December has a ton of potential. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

3 minutes ago, Brennan said:

I find it bizarre that this is going to be the coldest November of the century so far. It has seemed like anything but that up here in Bellingham. I work at BLI and start at 4am. We send a 5:45AM flight out every morning, and we've only deiced a handful of times, and I've yet to even wear gloves! I'm sure that'll change next week... But anyway, I'm shocked by the data Snowwiz.. I haven't looked at it, but taking your word for it! 

"Of the century" only includes the last 21 years and those years have been fairly warm as a group. Now if it were the coldest November "in a century," well, that you would notice. 

(Not to say it's not been nice, just saying it really emphasizes how warm recent history has been around here.)

[Brennan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Totally agree... it has been one of the most pleasant Novembers I can remember.   It has not seemed unusually cold.    But its all relative since wind and rain every day like we often have in November would be warmer but seem colder.  

True! We had like 12-14 days with basically no precip and clear skies every night. It didn't get that cold but consistently low to mid 30's with the occasional 20's in there. A major change from the typical November where we sometimes see ZERO lows below freezing, and zero clear nights. Who would have thought a colder climate would be much more enjoyable around here! 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, Brennan said:

Also, does anyone have any idea what it'll be like in Leavenworth face value Tuesday through Thursday?

This looks like a pretty snowy pattern.  Definitely cold enough for snow of course.  Models are showing a lot of snow.  Spokane NWS seems to be more focused on Spokane for that storm than the western zones, but that of course is where the population is, and they are also now a bit more focused on the storm tonight over the mountains.  Tonights storm wont give us much storm, since it looks to be directly coming out of the NW where we get heavily shadowed, but the midweek storm is different.  Though it keeps changing, but every model run shows us getting good snow.

By the way, I think you have kids now?  Our Festhalle at the the East end of town has some good kid activities (crafts for kids, letters to Santa, Santa costumes from around the world, food to eat, etc. 

And I hate to promote sappy Christmas movies (my wife loves them), but there is one for the Lifetime channel that will air at 8PM Friday, the 2nd, and it was set and filmed in Leavenworth.

 

[GHweatherChris]

2 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Wait, who has that meme video of Germans plotting during ww2 but its overlayed with weather nerd names? 

Ask... and ye shall receive!!

 

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Brennan said:

I'm getting January 25-29th 2002 vibes for the NW interior. 

It’s hazy but I believe we did okay down here in my area as well! 

[Brennan]

1 minute ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

"Of the century" only includes the last 21 years and those years have been fairly warm as a group. Now if it were the coldest November "in a century," well, that you would notice. 

(Not to say it's not been nice, just saying it really emphasizes how warm recent history has been around here.)

I wasn't mistaken on the timeframe, just really surprised given the lack of true cold this month. November 2006, 2010, 2011 all featured major arctic blasts here and had significant snowfall, so naturally in my mind those months seemed like they would have been colder. it's like the power of compound interest... slow growth (or consistently cool days/nights) is going to outperform the occasional home run investment if the rest are blanks. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So looking at my stats… this is crazy… but… It looks like this month is going to come in colder than December 2021 here.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

16 minutes ago, Brennan said:

I wasn't mistaken on the timeframe, just really surprised given the lack of true cold this month. November 2006, 2010, 2011 all featured major arctic blasts here and had significant snowfall, so naturally in my mind those months seemed like they would have been colder. it's like the power of compound interest... slow growth (or consistently cool days/nights) is going to outperform the occasional home run investment if the rest are blanks. 

I think that what has made it cold without a major blast is that it has been consistently below normal for almost the entire month.  Often months with an arctic blasts will also have periods of warmer than normal weather, and sometimes the arctic blast will only have cold temps for a week.

Interesting that Spokane is only 2 days away from breaking the all time November record for having at least one inch of snow on the ground for the most number of days.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[Terreboner]

8 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ask... and ye shall receive!!

 

Pure Gold!!!!

[Brennan]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

This looks like a pretty snowy pattern.  Definitely cold enough for snow of course.  Models are showing a lot of snow.  Spokane NWS seems to be more focused on Spokane for that storm than the western zones, but that of course is where the population is, and they are also now a bit more focused on the storm tonight over the mountains.  Tonights storm wont give us much storm, since it looks to be directly coming out of the NW where we get heavily shadowed, but the midweek storm is different.  Though it keeps changing, but every model run shows us getting good snow.

By the way, I think you have kids now?  Our Festhalle at the the East end of town has some good kid activities (crafts for kids, letters to Santa, Santa costumes from around the world, food to eat, etc. 

And I hate to promote sappy Christmas movies (my wife loves them), but there is one for the Lifetime channel that will air at 8PM Friday, the 2nd, and it was set and filmed in Leavenworth.

 

Yes, 3 with one on the way. The reason I ask is because there is a cabin we love staying at about 4 miles up Chumstick highway from Leavenworth, but it's wayyyyyy more fun if there's several inches of snow. There is a massive driveway that climbs up to the cabin, and we request it not to be plowed. It's absolutely one of the most epic sled hills I've ever been on... However, if there's no snow, that activity is out the door. The cabin is available Monday through Thursday, and we're debating going for a few nights... Just hard to decide with the uncertainty of the forecast here as well. if it's going to snow 6+ inches in Bellingham, no sense in fighting the pass in snow to get there. We went over there end of January in 2021, and arrived around 11pm, January 27th and it had just snowed 18" or so over the past couple of days. We had to park the Pilot at the bottom of the hill and walk alllllllll the way up. I made 6 trips getting each child, my wife, the sleds, our bags, cooler with food etc etc. When we left that evening my wife asked if we'd be able to make it up the driveway (I didn't tell her that the owner said the plow was broken and the driveway had 6+" of fresh snow on top of compact snow/ice)... I was like Oh, sure it'll be no problem (I didn't want to risk her not letting us leave until the next morning)... One of those ask for forgiveness later scenarios. Anyways, I got a full on sweat getting us up to the house, but it was 1000% worth it. One of the most fun few days in the snow I've ever had. I'll try to find and post some pics in the next day or so. 

[Gradient Keeper]

9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ask... and ye shall receive!!

 

It truly is the greatest thing ever created for weather geeks.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

It truly is the greatest thing ever created for weather geeks.

I actually started to edit one with newer references last winter, never got it finished though, might work on it some more.  Who was the person that created this one?

[Brennan]

My wife loves a good ol sappy movie. If we don't make it to Leavenworth for the viewing, we'll watch it on Prime or wherever else we can watch it. Cool seeing Leavenworth in a film like that! The reindeer park!!

Ok ok i've been known to dig a chick flik too.... 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Brennan

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I actually started to edit one with newer references last winter, never got it finished though, might work on it some more.  Who was the person that created this one?

I'm sure Rob knows.  Inspires me to create something for sure.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

6 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Yes, 3 with one on the way. The reason I ask is because there is a cabin we love staying at about 4 miles up Chumstick highway from Leavenworth, but it's wayyyyyy more fun if there's several inches of snow. There is a massive driveway that climbs up to the cabin, and we request it not to be plowed. It's absolutely one of the most epic sled hills I've ever been on... However, if there's no snow, that activity is out the door. The cabin is available Monday through Thursday, and we're debating going for a few nights... Just hard to decide with the uncertainty of the forecast here as well. if it's going to snow 6+ inches in Bellingham, no sense in fighting the pass in snow to get there. We went over there end of January in 2021, and arrived around 11pm, January 27th and it had just snowed 18" or so over the past couple of days. We had to park the Pilot at the bottom of the hill and walk alllllllll the way up. I made 6 trips getting each child, my wife, the sleds, our bags, cooler with food etc etc. When we left that evening my wife asked if we'd be able to make it up the driveway (I didn't tell her that the owner said the plow was broken and the driveway had 6+" of fresh snow on top of compact snow/ice)... I was like Oh, sure it'll be no problem (I didn't want to risk her not letting us leave until the next morning)... One of those ask for forgiveness later scenarios. Anyways, I got a full on sweat getting us up to the house, but it was 1000% worth it. One of the most fun few days in the snow I've ever had. I'll try to find and post some pics in the next day or so. 

We do have about 3-4 inches of snow on the ground now.  Looking forward to your pics!

[snow_wizard]

The mean snowfall for Seattle went from 5 inches on the 0z to 6 inches on 12z EPS.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It truly is the greatest thing ever created for weather geeks.

That one has been known to make my ribs hurt I laugh so hard.

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So looking at my stats… this is crazy… but… It looks like this month is going to come in colder than December 2021 here.

This month is ending up downright impressive.  Really cold.

[snow_wizard]

I think the late Jan 2002 analog is close with what's coming, but it appears this will be pushed about 50 miles further south than that one.

[Snownerd3000]

24 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ask... and ye shall receive!!

 

[snow_wizard]

32 minutes ago, Brennan said:

I find it bizarre that this is going to be the coldest November of the century so far. It has seemed like anything but that up here in Bellingham. I work at BLI and start at 4am. We send a 5:45AM flight out every morning, and we've only deiced a handful of times, and I've yet to even wear gloves! I'm sure that'll change next week... But anyway, I'm shocked by the data Snowwiz.. I haven't looked at it, but taking your word for it! 

They've had 18 freezing min temps and they had the Fraser outflow earlier in the month.  This has really been a case of sustained cold.

[snow_wizard]

Running 44/32 here so far today.  Way colder than models had projected a few days back.  Liking the theme!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 3 and Day 4 (Past 20 runs, 5 days of model runs)

Here you can see the trend to strengthen and amplify the block sooner reorganizing further west over the Bering Sea and Western Alaska as it merges with another high pressure cell moving off Siberia. In comparison to runs 4-5 days ago where the ridge strengthened more slowly around ~160-150 W. In fact, you can see the initial trough over us and entire pattern over the US also slowly shifts to the west. As a piece of energy rounds the block it digs back too far west over Southeast Alaska rather than moving down through Yukon and interior BC as the cold runs showed earlier this week. Over the next 2-3 runs we need to see a trend for the block to migrate a bit to the east and not amplify as quickly. It just doesn't seem likely though.

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m in the purple!

I’m currently everywhere in the PNW……I have no idea what I’m under any more

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

"Of the century" only includes the last 21 years and those years have been fairly warm as a group. Now if it were the coldest November "in a century," well, that you would notice. 

(Not to say it's not been nice, just saying it really emphasizes how warm recent history has been around here.)

That having been said this will still be a top 15 (maybe top 10) or so cold November back to 1895 for the Western Lowlands.  No slouch.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

12z GFS Day 3 and Day 4 (Past 20 runs, 5 days of model runs)

Here you can see the trend to strengthen and amplify the block sooner reorganizing further west over the Bering Sea and Western Alaska as it merges with another high pressure cell moving off Siberia. In comparison to runs 4-5 days ago where the ridge strengthened more slowly around ~160-150 W. In fact, you can see the initial trough over us and entire pattern over the US also slowly shifts to the west. As a piece of energy rounds the block it digs back too far west over Southeast Alaska rather than moving down through Yukon and interior BC as the cold runs showed earlier this week. Over the next 2-3 runs we need to see a trend for the block to migrate a bit to the east and not amplify as quickly. It just doesn't seem likely though.

Keep in mind we would normally be very happy by the latest progs.  Expectations might have just been too high.  Still nice potential though.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This month is ending up downright impressive.  Really cold.

And I have been able to wear shorts most days this month... Chris can probably relate!    I don't wear shorts outside when its rainy/windy or snowy but I think Chris still does even then.    I am little more wimpy.     

But have not even had a second thought most days this month... totally comfortable in shorts and a sweatshirt.    As I said... one of the most pleasant Novembers that I can recall.  

[Kolk1604]

49 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Gotta like the last few days of the EPS.  

Gotta love a mean signal that strong that far out. 

 

[Blizzard777]

39 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Wind warning issued here. 55mph gusts expected tonight 

Choppy seas with 20-30 mph SSE winds (Sandy Point Ferndale Wa.) 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And I have been able to wear shorts most days this month... Chris can probably relate!    I don't wear shorts outside when its rainy/windy or snowy.   But I think Chris still does even then.    I am little more wimpy.     

But have not even had a second thought most days this month... totally comfortable in shorts and sweatshirt.  

Ok....

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, Nov1985 said:

If the 18" (10:1) 21" (Kuchera) for my house actually gets half that, I'll be satisfied for the week. Models very flaky beyond 72 hours still, so fun to watch this play out.

The problem with snow is that it doesn't work like really any of the other weather phenomena. If 2-3" of rain are forecast you could have a relatively big shift of the forecast and still end up with over an inch of rain. But with snow, 1 degree makes such a difference. The snow maps look great right now and I would take half or even a quarter of what they're showing, but if the storm tracks 10 miles more north, then we actually end up with 0% of what they're showing.

In marginal situations like this, I just don't trust any snow that falls with temperatures above freezing. Currently 9" out of 10" shown by the Euro and 16" out of 20" shown by the GFS at my location fall with temperatures above freezing. Of course that's possible and happens not infrequently, but is still to be looked at with caution. So even if the upper levels and temperatures play out exactly as forecast I would be surprised to see more than 5" which isn't even taking into account the likely moderating of temperatures as well approach. But I'm looking forward to the ride and hoping it all goes perfectly!

[Cold Snap]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

I feel something biiiig brewing this winter. Maybe not next week though 

I’m feeling January. I feel like when we finally break that January curse we will get hit hard to make up for it.

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the late Jan 2002 analog is close with what's coming, but it appears this will be pushed about 50 miles further south than that one.

Are we able to forecast within 50 mile accuracy this far out. Not likely

[ShawniganLake]

We are in NAM territory now

 

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Ok....

Yesterday was not a shorts day... that was raw.  

 

[RentonHill]

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

12 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

12z GFS Day 3 and Day 4 (Past 20 runs, 5 days of model runs)

Here you can see the trend to strengthen and amplify the block sooner reorganizing further west over the Bering Sea and Western Alaska as it merges with another high pressure cell moving off Siberia. In comparison to runs 4-5 days ago where the ridge strengthened more slowly around ~160-150 W. In fact, you can see the initial trough over us and entire pattern over the US also slowly shifts to the west. As a piece of energy rounds the block it digs back too far west over Southeast Alaska rather than moving down through Yukon and interior BC as the cold runs showed earlier this week. Over the next 2-3 runs we need to see a trend for the block to migrate a bit to the east and not amplify as quickly. It just doesn't seem likely though.

Nationwide trough

[MossMan]

This was the last day I wore shorts. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

44 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

"Of the century" only includes the last 21 years and those years have been fairly warm as a group. Now if it were the coldest November "in a century," well, that you would notice. 

(Not to say it's not been nice, just saying it really emphasizes how warm recent history has been around here.)

By far, you have my favorite name here.  And I love the backstory.  RMAOFL!!!