Phil Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 *Crickets* ...... I happen to really like 00z GFS(Upstream) Persistent ridging/anomaly over the North Pacific nosing near the Aleutians which could be good if amplification takes place and exactly where it sets up. A good ways to go to be "good", but it's far better than the stubborn GOA vortex. Signs an Omega block might be setting up after day 10. So far out one can only speculate and only barely at that.Watch what happens if that flat Aleutian ridge decides to stick around for awhile. For the sake of this forum, I hope it doesn't. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 00z GFS Ensembles 500mb anomalies. HR 210 Definitely some improvement here http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110800/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_36.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Day 9http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110800/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_39.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Flat ridge phobia!!! 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Mountain snow at least, perhaps significant. Probably see snow cover build in BC/AB too. NPAC ridge flattens after day 10-12... Cooler NW flow rather persistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Flat ridge phobia!!!Haha, yeah pretty much. I wouldn't be as worried if the Niña convective state were stronger (hence better synchronization w/ fluxes under QBO). Can't rely on that if intraseasonal forcing is dominating. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 00z ECMWF in 2 minutes!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Flat ridge phobia!!!Definitely, but it's early November. Not panic time yet! Baby toddler steps. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 I'd be surprised if we don't get decent mountain pack again this winter. If a Super Nino gave K-Falls 2x normal snowfall, no snow this winter would be a total fluke at the least. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Flat ridge phobia!!! :( http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/57788D99-5A4D-4DD1-AA53-5D6FCF34B267_zpsjletxumu.gif 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 If you vote for me, I'll make the biggliest ridge. It will be the biggliest ridge you've ever seen, and it will be the greatest ridge you've ever seen. All the ridges love me. The ridges are the smartest ridges, and also the biggliest. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 :( http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/57788D99-5A4D-4DD1-AA53-5D6FCF34B267_zpsjletxumu.gifNot ideal of course, but it could be much, much worse for us PNW folks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 360 hrs out, anyhoo. The world may have descended into Trump anarchy by that point. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 360 hrs out, anyhoo. The world may have descended into Trump anarchy by that point.Not to get political, but if by some unforeseen chance Trump does win, I'd be concerned about any violence, rioting, civil disobedience, etc coming from the liberal left/democractic supporters. You rarely if ever see conservatives doing any of those things. Okay, back to Weather. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 00z ECMWF HR 96 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_5.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110800/ecmwf_z500a_npac_5.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Not to get political, but if by some unforeseen chance Trump does win, I'd be concerned about any violence, rioting, civil disobedience, etc coming from the liberal left/democractic supporters. You rarely if ever see conservatives doing any of those things. Okay, back to Weather. As long as we don't lose access to the Euro, I'm good. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 As long as we don't lose access to the Euro, I'm good.Absolutely! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 SEA broke their record high by 4 degrees today. Yawn. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Not to get political, but if by some unforeseen chance Trump does win, I'd be concerned about any violence, rioting, civil disobedience, etc coming from the liberal left/democractic supporters. You rarely if ever see conservatives doing any of those things. Okay, back to Weather. I have seen posts and interviews with redneck militia types stockpiling weapons for a civil war if Hillary happens to win! I am more concerned the other way with the potential for problems. Trump has his supporters so convinced that the entire system is rigged that they are a powder keg waiting to go off. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 SEA broke their record high by 4 degrees today. Yawn. This was already reported by Snow Wiz. 1949, 2008, etc. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 This was already reported by Snow Wiz. 1949, 2008, etc..... and we know what happened back then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 SEA broke their record high by 4 degrees today. Yawn. I was 5 away from record of 68 in 1978. While 70+ is possible here it is hard to come by. I was actually delighted I was in the 60's today, comparing to the last half dozen November's I have experienced. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 .... and we know what happened back then! Ominous flat Aleutian ridging. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 It really is kind of uncanny how record warmth this time of year with -ENSO years has had nice results later. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Day 6http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_7.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 360 hrs out, anyhoo. The world may have descended into Trump anarchy by that point.Not taking that verbatim, obviously. Just pointing out that the climatological loading pattern for a GOA vortex is indeed a flat aleutian ridge. Can be an incredibly self-sustaining dynamic. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 I have seen posts and interviews with redneck militia types stockpiling weapons for a civil war if Hillary happens to win! I am more concerned the other way with the potential for problems. Trump has his supporters so convinced that the entire system is rigged that they are a powder keg waiting to go off.I've seen posts and interviews from astrophysicists that the sky is blue, doesn't mean it's true! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 I have seen posts and interviews with redneck militia types stockpiling weapons for a civil war if Hillary happens to win! I am more concerned the other way with the potential for problems. Trump has his supporters so convinced that the entire system is rigged that they are a powder keg waiting to go off. You should probably start stockpiling weapons to protect yourself either way. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Not taking that verbatim, obviously. Just pointing out that the climatological loading pattern for a GOA vortex is indeed a flat aleutian ridge. Can be an incredibly self-sustaining dynamic.I want an incredibly self-sustaining amplified block along 160 W. Let's do that instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 You should probably start stockpiling weapons to protect yourself either way.I decided to stockpile gun control advocates instead. I think Tim and the internet is right. Mayhem and flat ridging starting 24 hours from now. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 You should probably start stockpiling weapons to protect yourself either way. Right. Rob brought it up. I think the chance for problems is higher if Clinton wins. Not that there is much of a chance either way. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Day 8http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_9.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110800/ecmwf_z500a_npac_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Right. Rob brought it up. I think the chance for problems is higher if Clinton wins. Not that there is much of a chance either way.Well, I kind of did, but kind of didn't too. Either way, yeah we all know there likely will be some disgruntled, angry, ignorant folks who might do something. That would be very stupid on their behalf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Anyone staying up for the 6z? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Anyone staying up for the 6z?Who isn't? 6z is only 2 hours 33 minutes away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Day 10 - Wind storm pattern. 982mb low deepening approaching north Washington Coasthttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110800/ecmwf_T850_nwus_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110800/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Way to not take it there, in this thread. Its the eve of the election... and the subject of problems after the election was mentioned. Relax Jared. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 Way to not take it there, in this thread.I read somewhere Jim is a Trump supporter. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted November 8, 2016 Report Share Posted November 8, 2016 *Crickets* ...... I happen to really like 00z GFS(Upstream) Persistent ridging/anomaly over the North Pacific nosing near the Aleutians which could be good if amplification takes place and exactly where it sets up. A good ways to go to be "good", but it's far better than the stubborn GOA vortex. Signs an Omega block might be setting up after day 10. So far out one can only speculate and only barely at that.I hope you guys get some cold air! 00z GFS shows us getting nice and cold for us in the day 7-8 timezone. Looking like a decent snow storm to sea level. Just need something to carry that chilly air your way I think. I don't know enough three letter acronyms to figure out what one it will be, though. Will be interesting to watch! 1 Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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