November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Who is being hyperbolic?

Maybe the people claiming I have "nothing good" to say about the model runs? Just for starters.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Lol. Exaggerate much?

a little.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF shows the first arctic front of the season moving into southern British Columbia . Low weakening over northern Puget Sound dropping south and cold air floods southward as it departs southeastward across Washington. That's what the NCEP GFS(on tropical tidbits site) showed and if the WRF ran out to day 10 we would see a really chilly/cold Columbia Basin and eastern Washington.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016112100/images_d2/slp.180.0000.gif

[ShawniganLake]

2nd straight WRF run to show snow here on Friday morning. Go WRF.

[stuffradio]

Our best snowstorms are on marginal setups. The problem is it's easy to get screwed, but the colder the air mass, the less snow usually for us.

[snow_wizard]

Our best snowstorms are on marginal setups. The problem is it's easy to get screwed, but the colder the air mass, the less snow usually for us.

Not entirely true. Really good winters have major snows pretty much everywhere.

[ShawniganLake]

Our best snowstorms are on marginal setups. The problem is it's easy to get screwed, but the colder the air mass, the less snow usually for us.

You generally need an arctic tap of some sort for the real biggies, though.

[Jesse]

Our best snowstorms are on marginal setups. The problem is it's easy to get screwed, but the colder the air mass, the less snow usually for us.

Is this why we used to get so much less snow back when it got really cold more frequently?

[westcoastexpat]

Not entirely true. Really good winters have major snows pretty much everywhere.

 

But in fairness to stuffradio, for winters in recent memory, that has been mostly the case. Especially up in metro Vancouver where Fraser Outflow has seem to eat away at every dollop of precipitation. It's a fine line -- having cold but not much snow is basically a slap in the face. All pain for no gain.

[westcoastexpat]

So no matter what we are screwed on every run lately? Seems you have a much different opinion than many others here. I guess we are feeling to desperate to see things as clearly as you. We are a sad lot.

 

In Phil's defense, he's had a pretty good read on the situation. I don't think he's said winter cancel, he's just not jumping on the "amazing train" because everything looks pretty mediocre at best. He's also not in the PNW and is less in touch with how decent the upcoming pattern is for most in this subforum, given the last 5 or so winters. And given how warm November just was. It's not a bad pattern. But it's nothing to write home about.

 

The biggest issue is that the long range has flipped back and forth like crazy, but it does seem that blocking will be making a return (as per the models), and hopefully it sets up in a favorable position for us. I can't speak for everyone, but even if we have an "amazing" January, the winter will not be an "A" grade one for me if we don't at least get snowy in the December 20-January 10 period approximately. That's my prime preferred period for winter and if it's a dud, it's hard for me to consider the season top-notch. I've seen a lot of east coasters complain about their winters lately because they have had such mild Decembers. It's important to some people. I for one have no interest in a back-loaded winter. I'm ready for summer by March    

 

In the end, there's no denying that the trend this season looks to beat the last couple of winters. And that's a step in the right direction. But the idea that we're definitely going to get "nailed" this winter because of a cool October, warm November, cool-but-not-too-cool-December is a simplistic formula. No two winters are the same, which is why analogs are more fun than useful.

[westcoastexpat]

00Z GFS is pretty much a nightmare run. Raging death ridge right over the west coast. Remember, it's only one run people, so don't panic. 

 

00Z Euro seems to mostly agree with the progression of the GFS.

 

 

Hour 384 map time!!

 

 

[Bryant]

Not sure why Phil is being criticized honestly. While it's true that the -NAO may help us out, I doubt we see any substantial cold until the Pacific shuts down. We're all hungry for some cold, but lets not lower our standards

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS was quite similar to 00z. Tons of mountain snow with the cold troughs, ridge builds some offshore, then slides east but remains offshore. Important factor. This allows modified arctic air to move into eastern Washington and the Columbia Basin. More than 00z showed. High temps could be as cold as the upper 10s to mid 20s from Moses Lake to Pasco. The result is a strong cold pool and likely cold, strong east winds through the Gorge into PDX. Ensembles show the positive anomaly/ridging remains offshore, then retrogrades back to Alaska. It also showed the Pacific jet shutting down entirely.

The message is fairly clear that a pattern change is coming. Details beyond day 6-7 are impossible to know. We will likely see models change quite a bit the following days with various solutions. Some might be not be that appetizing. We may see some cold runs too.

[HardDrinkinLincoln]

This would make for a record breaking experience. Just eye candy, I know.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016112100/708/sfct.conus.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This would make for a record breaking experience. Just eye candy, I know.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016112100/708/sfct.conus.png

 

Is it still cold on the 22nd? I will be 2000 miles away on the 20th lol. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE is running a cool +6.4 departure for November so far. See if we can get that below +5 by the end of the month...

 

Redmond, OR is running an 8.3 departure... That is pretty epic. 

 

Salem actually had a +10 departure yesterday and will have a pretty significant departure today again. 

[IbrChris]

This would make for a record breaking experience. Just eye candy, I know.

 

Hah...if we didn't have the Cascades and Rockies maybe...though that is a very PNW-centric arctic outbreak with the -39 in southern BC. Still probably something in the +5 to +15 F range west of the Cascades for lows.

[Brennan]

I'm betting it's somewhere around Jan 12, 1950. I ruled out the 1968-69 cold snaps because the NAO looks positive. Obviously reasonably old also. Where did you get it?

It is January 13th 1950, the day Seattle recorded 21" of snow!

[Front Ranger]

You're nuts. And you've gone into the doghouse since being the -PNA Pied Piper last summer.

 

Get full on the hyperbole train or jump off on the next curve.

The disconnect is that most people on here just want to see certain trends, towards more -PNA especially. Even if that doesn't result in a full blown Arctic outbreak in the next couple weeks, it's a better sign heading into winter than a continuation of the late October/early November pattern.

 

Phil is good at pattern recognition, but he does have some inherently east coast views on what makes for a "promising" pattern progression. -PNA tendencies are not going to stand out to him as much as -AO/-NAO, for example, even though -PNA is a more important ingredient for the PNW to get cold and possibly snowy.

[IbrChris]

2m Temp anomalies are pretty benign for Portland

 

1-5 day: +2.0
6-10 day: +0.9

11-15 day: -1.7
Week 3: 0.0
Week 4: +0.5

Highs generally upper 40s/50 over the next week falling to mid 40s the following week.

Potentially the first frost (<= 32) at PDX on 11/30 but more likely toward 12/2 or 12/3.

[Timmy]

12z gfs looks much improved at hr 180

[TT-SEA]

Windstorm possible on Friday per the 12Z GFS.

[ShawniganLake]

12z gfs looks much improved at hr 180

Pattern looks decent but the results look warmer than the 0z.

[MossMan]

Windstorm possible on Friday per the 12Z GFS.

Leftover cold turkey sandwiches for a powerless Friday!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just literally no cold air to work with despite some fairly favorable patterns. 

[Timmy]

12z looks like a a back door cool blast. Mid -10's 850 mb temps at hr 264 crossing the US boarder in WA. Cold pool in basin.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like the 12z. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Windstorm possible on Friday per the 12Z GFS.

 

At face value how strong we talking here under 45 mph or over?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see lots of warm anomalies this week!

[Timmy]

As much as I like the 12z gfs, it is the definition of "carrots" it no longer shows snow for me this weekend. Looks like the SL doesn't go below 2500'

[stuffradio]

Today's CFSv2 Monthly for next month shows a large swath of cold anomalies for December basically into the central US from the West coast, which includes OR, WA, all of BC and into SE Alaska . I'll take it!

[Kayla]

Positive signs with the 12z in that the pacific gets shut down.

 

Until then, it's going to be a very stormy and incredible snowpack building pattern over the next 7 days.

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z looks like a a back door cool blast. Mid -10's 850 mb temps at hr 264 crossing the US boarder in WA. Cold pool in basin.

I have not looked buy I sure hope not --  Backdoors suck here. Dry overall, unless you want a transitory (overrunning) snow to rain event at the end.  Personally, I sure hope not.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As much as I like the 12z gfs, it is the definition of "carrots" it no longer shows snow for me this weekend. Looks like the SL doesn't go below 2500'

 

I have not seen a significant signal for much snow below 3000' feet overall. In fact most of the heaviest snow should be pass level and above. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What is shown in the LR GFS is probably highs 38-42 lows in the 20s in W. Oregon. Seasonally cool. I would qualify it as a "warning shot."

[luvssnow_spokane]

I have not seen a significant signal for much snow below 3000' feet overall. In fact most of the heaviest snow should be pass level and above. 

Some 2500 foot levels in there too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some 2500 foot levels in there too.

 

Yeah some, but it really isn't that cool of a pattern. Fairly seasonal, and probably warm anomalies below 1000-2000' because of mild overnight lows and south winds. 

[IbrChris]

What is shown in the LR GFS is probably highs 38-42 lows in the 20s in W. Oregon. Seasonally cool. I would qualify it as a "warning shot."

Pretty much exactly what I'd say also...several sub-freezing lows in the valley (including probably PDX) if we can get some clearing. I will say the last few operational GFS runs have been the coldest model runs in the 6-10 and 11-15 when considering the ensembles and the Euro operational. GFS ensemble mean still suggests highs in the low 40s in the 11-15 day period.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ski resorts should get going in a big way though and that is a positive! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty much exactly what I'd say also...several sub-freezing lows in the valley (including probably PDX) if we can get some clearing. I will say the last few operational GFS runs have been the coldest model runs in the 6-10 and 11-15 when considering the ensembles and the Euro operational. GFS ensemble mean still suggests highs in the low 40s in the 11-15 day period.

 

If the same pattern repeated in about six weeks it would have a lot more potential.