November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

Looks like a pre-Arctic outbreak rainbow to me.

Pre-arctic rainbow gold is worth more than regular pots of gold!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another very warm day with temps in the mid-50s up and down the Willamette Valley. Some major positive departures again today. 

[Timmy]

Looks like a pre-Arctic outbreak rainbow to me.

 

Warning-shot-bow

[Timmy]

Another very warm day with temps in the mid-50s up and down the Willamette Valley. Some major positive departures again today.

 

I haven't been outside yet so I haven't noticed

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I haven't been outside yet so I haven't noticed

 

I have noticed the sunshine.

[Deweydog]

Another very warm day with temps in the mid-50s up and down the Willamette Valley. Some major positive departures again today. 

 

If it ain't +10 or more I don't want to hear about it. 

 

#+6isthenewnormal

[Phil]

Phil is good at pattern recognition, but he does have some inherently east coast views on what makes for a "promising" pattern progression. -PNA tendencies are not going to stand out to him as much as -AO/-NAO, for example, even though -PNA is a more important ingredient for the PNW to get cold and possibly snowy.

A -PNA alone won't get the job done, that's my point. Typically, some form of upstream wave driving and/or a poleward displacement of mass is necessary for the lowlands to score. In my opinion, this is fairly straightforward.

 

One of many examples is 2007/08, which was deeply -PNA but lacked the high latitude blocking/wave amplification necessary for a good winter in the lowlands. You're going to need much more than just a -PNA going forward..and a -PNA can in fact be detrimental at times if it's a flat/broad Aleutian ridge regime given the effect on the EPO/NAM via WAFz shutdown.

[stuffradio]

Okay, but a -PNA alone won't usually get the job done, that's my point. Typically, some form of upstream wave driving and/or a poleward displacement of mass is necessary for the lowlands to score.

 

One of many examples is 2007/08, which was deeply -PNA but lacked the high latitude blocking/wave amplification necessary for a good winter in the lowlands. You're going to need much more than just a -PNA going forward..and a -PNA can in fact be detrimental at times if it's a flat/broad Aleutian ridge regime given the effect on the EPO/NAM via WAFz shutdown.

07/08 WAS a pretty good winter in the lowlands.

[Phil]

07/08 WAS a pretty good winter in the lowlands.

Not in the US. Unless you're throwing away any and all existing standards.

[Deweydog]

07/08 WAS a pretty good winter in the lowlands.

 

Had lot of positive windshield tests that winter.  

[Phil]

If 2007/08 was a good winter in the lowlands, than by default, so was 2014/15. Thanksgiving glory.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A -PNA alone won't get the job done, that's my point. Typically, some form of upstream wave driving and/or a poleward displacement of mass is necessary for the lowlands to score. In my opinion, this is fairly straightforward.

 

One of many examples is 2007/08, which was deeply -PNA but lacked the high latitude blocking/wave amplification necessary for a good winter in the lowlands. You're going to need much more than just a -PNA going forward..and a -PNA can in fact be detrimental at times if it's a flat/broad Aleutian ridge regime given the effect on the EPO/NAM via WAFz shutdown.

 

I would kill for a 2007-08 redux.

[Phil]

I would kill for a 2007-08 redux.

Well, I'm sure you, Tim, and folks in Canada/Alaska would be fine with it, but the majority of the forum probably wouldn't.

[Jesse]

60 today?

[Phil]

Yeah, 2007/08 was truly an amazing winter. Arctic fronts, blizzards at sea level, subzero dewpoints. Deserves an honorable mention alongside the all-time greats.

[BLI snowman]

If 2007/08 was a good winter in the lowlands, than by default, so was 2014/15. Thanksgiving glory.

They were both bad winters for western Or and WA, but they were not analogous to one another at all. 2014-15 was a ridgy, SW flow dominant turd and 2007-08 was a persistently cool but not cool enough nightmare.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just waiting for the old leaves to fall off so they can immediately begin blooming again.   Soon!  

Nice! I can hardly wait. This winter has been another brutal one. Honestly, it would be so nice to get an above average winter again. Been sooo long and I am exhausted.

[BLI snowman]

60 today?

Maybe in Tigard. Pretty gross and mild down there.

[Jesse]

They were both bad winters for western Or and WA, but they were not analogous to one another at all. 2014-15 was a ridgy, SW flow dominant turd and 2007-08 was a persistently cool but not cool enough nightmare.

I would take a 2007-08 over a 2014-15 in a heartbeat. Nice to only have to drive 5 minutes to see snow as opposed to 500 miles.

[Phil]

They were both bad winters for western Or and WA, but they were not analogous to one another at all. 2014-15 was a ridgy, SW flow dominant turd and 2007-08 was a persistently cool but not cool enough nightmare.

That was my opinion as well, alluding to my point about a favorable PNA (by itself) being insufficient for the lowlands to score.

 

But apparently we're all dry humping 07/08 now, so what the heck do I know?

[Jesse]

Maybe in Tigard. Pretty gross and mild down there.

We moved up to Vancouver on Friday.

[BLI snowman]

I would take a 2007-08 over a 2014-15 in a heartbeat. Nice to only have to drive 5 minutes to see snow as opposed to 500 miles.

To make it a football analogy, which I know you'll love, 2007-08 was like losing the superbowl in the end zone by a single point on a last second score, while 2014-15 was like going 1-15 and then drafting Ryan Leaf with the top pick the following year.

[Jesse]

To make it a football analogy, which I know you'll love, 2007-08 was like losing the superbowl in the end zone by a single point on a last second score, while 2014-15 was like going 1-15 and then drafting Ryan Leaf with the top pick the following year.

Don't care. I will always take snow nearby over a regional winter torch.

[BLI snowman]

We moved up to Vancouver on Friday.

Vancouver is the new Tigard.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

To make it a football analogy, which I know you'll love, 2007-08 was like losing the superbowl in the end zone by a single point on a last second score, while 2014-15 was like going 1-15 and then drafting Ryan Leaf with the top pick the following year.

 

Eugene scored a pretty solid snow event in January 2008.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don't care. I will always take snow nearby over a regional winter torch.

 

Your congress person is now a female Republican.

[Jesse]

Vancouver is the new Tigard.

For us it is!

 

We are on the east side of town, close to the Camas border. Hoping to capitalize on those east winds this winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty hard to see how PDX doesn't have a +5 anomaly for the week. 

[BLI snowman]

That was my opinion as well, alluding to my point about a favorable PNA (by itself) being insufficient for the lowlands to score.

 

But apparently we're all dry humping 07/08 now, so what the heck do I know?

It definitely isn't enough by itself. Obviously we need a specific type of upper level setup.

 

January 2000 and December 2012 were other examples of months with solidly negative PNA and nothing to show for it besides a lot of chilly rain.

[Jesse]

Pretty hard to see how PDX doesn't have a +5 anomaly for the week.

I was thinking the warmest November on record was probably out of the question, but the last two days have placed it solidly back on the table.

[stuffradio]

You need to change the name of the city of Vancouver in WA to something else. Talk about copying us! There already was legislation sometime ago to do just that, but I guess you didn't follow through.

 

Abbotsford got just over an inch of snow in November 2007, over 2 feet of snow in December 2007, over a foot of snow in Jan 2008, a trace in Feb 2008 and 1-2 inches in March 2008. How is that a bad winter?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Hmmm is something interesting happening @ hour 102 on the drunken Uncle GFS run? hmmmm High pressure placement/alignment is different? Waiting for more frames to load to verify. -- EDIT: disregard  <_>

[Phil]

It definitely isn't enough by itself. Obviously we need a specific type of upper level setup.

 

January 2000 and December 2012 were other examples of months with solidly negative PNA and nothing to show for it besides a lot of chilly rain.

Yeah, a poleward displacement of mass above 55N and 110/160W seems to be a requirement, looking at events since 1979. There are a number of ways to achieve that, but they all require a certain tropical/polar synchronization.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still possible I could make it into December without a freeze.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

You need to change the name of the city of Vancouver in WA to something else. Talk about copying us! There already was legislation sometime ago to do just that, but I guess you didn't follow through.

 

 

This Vancouver is the older of the two FWIW. 1825 or thereabouts.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This Vancouver is the older of the two FWIW. 1825 or thereabouts.

 

Kind of like how Portland, ME is older than Portland, OR, but PDX is way bigger. 

[Jesse]

Kind of like how Portland, ME is older than Portland, OR, but PDX is way bigger.

That's a pretty good analogy. Although they were just a coin flip away from being Boston, OR. In which case it wouldn't be.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's a pretty good analogy. Although they were just a coin flip away from being Boston, OR. In which case it wouldn't be.

 

Yeah I am glad it didn't end up Boston...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I love Bill Walton. Announcing the Ducks basketball game at the Maui invitational today "Oregon fans here after enduring the 2nd rainiest October in recorded history, lets hope that rain does not turn to their tears today after this slow start by their team."