stuffradio Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Looks like a pre-Arctic outbreak rainbow to me.Pre-arctic rainbow gold is worth more than regular pots of gold! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Another very warm day with temps in the mid-50s up and down the Willamette Valley. Some major positive departures again today. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Looks like a pre-Arctic outbreak rainbow to me. Warning-shot-bow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Another very warm day with temps in the mid-50s up and down the Willamette Valley. Some major positive departures again today. I haven't been outside yet so I haven't noticed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 I haven't been outside yet so I haven't noticed I have noticed the sunshine. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Another very warm day with temps in the mid-50s up and down the Willamette Valley. Some major positive departures again today. If it ain't +10 or more I don't want to hear about it. #+6isthenewnormal Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Phil is good at pattern recognition, but he does have some inherently east coast views on what makes for a "promising" pattern progression. -PNA tendencies are not going to stand out to him as much as -AO/-NAO, for example, even though -PNA is a more important ingredient for the PNW to get cold and possibly snowy.A -PNA alone won't get the job done, that's my point. Typically, some form of upstream wave driving and/or a poleward displacement of mass is necessary for the lowlands to score. In my opinion, this is fairly straightforward. One of many examples is 2007/08, which was deeply -PNA but lacked the high latitude blocking/wave amplification necessary for a good winter in the lowlands. You're going to need much more than just a -PNA going forward..and a -PNA can in fact be detrimental at times if it's a flat/broad Aleutian ridge regime given the effect on the EPO/NAM via WAFz shutdown. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Okay, but a -PNA alone won't usually get the job done, that's my point. Typically, some form of upstream wave driving and/or a poleward displacement of mass is necessary for the lowlands to score. One of many examples is 2007/08, which was deeply -PNA but lacked the high latitude blocking/wave amplification necessary for a good winter in the lowlands. You're going to need much more than just a -PNA going forward..and a -PNA can in fact be detrimental at times if it's a flat/broad Aleutian ridge regime given the effect on the EPO/NAM via WAFz shutdown.07/08 WAS a pretty good winter in the lowlands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 07/08 WAS a pretty good winter in the lowlands.Not in the US. Unless you're throwing away any and all existing standards. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 07/08 WAS a pretty good winter in the lowlands. Had lot of positive windshield tests that winter. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 If 2007/08 was a good winter in the lowlands, than by default, so was 2014/15. Thanksgiving glory. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 A -PNA alone won't get the job done, that's my point. Typically, some form of upstream wave driving and/or a poleward displacement of mass is necessary for the lowlands to score. In my opinion, this is fairly straightforward. One of many examples is 2007/08, which was deeply -PNA but lacked the high latitude blocking/wave amplification necessary for a good winter in the lowlands. You're going to need much more than just a -PNA going forward..and a -PNA can in fact be detrimental at times if it's a flat/broad Aleutian ridge regime given the effect on the EPO/NAM via WAFz shutdown. I would kill for a 2007-08 redux. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 I would kill for a 2007-08 redux.Well, I'm sure you, Tim, and folks in Canada/Alaska would be fine with it, but the majority of the forum probably wouldn't. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 60 today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Yeah, 2007/08 was truly an amazing winter. Arctic fronts, blizzards at sea level, subzero dewpoints. Deserves an honorable mention alongside the all-time greats. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 If 2007/08 was a good winter in the lowlands, than by default, so was 2014/15. Thanksgiving glory.They were both bad winters for western Or and WA, but they were not analogous to one another at all. 2014-15 was a ridgy, SW flow dominant turd and 2007-08 was a persistently cool but not cool enough nightmare. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Just waiting for the old leaves to fall off so they can immediately begin blooming again. Soon! Nice! I can hardly wait. This winter has been another brutal one. Honestly, it would be so nice to get an above average winter again. Been sooo long and I am exhausted. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 60 today?Maybe in Tigard. Pretty gross and mild down there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 They were both bad winters for western Or and WA, but they were not analogous to one another at all. 2014-15 was a ridgy, SW flow dominant turd and 2007-08 was a persistently cool but not cool enough nightmare.I would take a 2007-08 over a 2014-15 in a heartbeat. Nice to only have to drive 5 minutes to see snow as opposed to 500 miles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 They were both bad winters for western Or and WA, but they were not analogous to one another at all. 2014-15 was a ridgy, SW flow dominant turd and 2007-08 was a persistently cool but not cool enough nightmare.That was my opinion as well, alluding to my point about a favorable PNA (by itself) being insufficient for the lowlands to score. But apparently we're all dry humping 07/08 now, so what the heck do I know? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Maybe in Tigard. Pretty gross and mild down there.We moved up to Vancouver on Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 I would take a 2007-08 over a 2014-15 in a heartbeat. Nice to only have to drive 5 minutes to see snow as opposed to 500 miles.To make it a football analogy, which I know you'll love, 2007-08 was like losing the superbowl in the end zone by a single point on a last second score, while 2014-15 was like going 1-15 and then drafting Ryan Leaf with the top pick the following year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 To make it a football analogy, which I know you'll love, 2007-08 was like losing the superbowl in the end zone by a single point on a last second score, while 2014-15 was like going 1-15 and then drafting Ryan Leaf with the top pick the following year.Don't care. I will always take snow nearby over a regional winter torch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 We moved up to Vancouver on Friday.Vancouver is the new Tigard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 To make it a football analogy, which I know you'll love, 2007-08 was like losing the superbowl in the end zone by a single point on a last second score, while 2014-15 was like going 1-15 and then drafting Ryan Leaf with the top pick the following year. Eugene scored a pretty solid snow event in January 2008. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Don't care. I will always take snow nearby over a regional winter torch. Your congress person is now a female Republican. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Vancouver is the new Tigard.For us it is! We are on the east side of town, close to the Camas border. Hoping to capitalize on those east winds this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Pretty hard to see how PDX doesn't have a +5 anomaly for the week. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 That was my opinion as well, alluding to my point about a favorable PNA (by itself) being insufficient for the lowlands to score. But apparently we're all dry humping 07/08 now, so what the heck do I know?It definitely isn't enough by itself. Obviously we need a specific type of upper level setup. January 2000 and December 2012 were other examples of months with solidly negative PNA and nothing to show for it besides a lot of chilly rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Pretty hard to see how PDX doesn't have a +5 anomaly for the week.I was thinking the warmest November on record was probably out of the question, but the last two days have placed it solidly back on the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 You need to change the name of the city of Vancouver in WA to something else. Talk about copying us! There already was legislation sometime ago to do just that, but I guess you didn't follow through. Abbotsford got just over an inch of snow in November 2007, over 2 feet of snow in December 2007, over a foot of snow in Jan 2008, a trace in Feb 2008 and 1-2 inches in March 2008. How is that a bad winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Hmmm is something interesting happening @ hour 102 on the drunken Uncle GFS run? hmmmm High pressure placement/alignment is different? Waiting for more frames to load to verify. -- EDIT: disregard <_> Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 It definitely isn't enough by itself. Obviously we need a specific type of upper level setup. January 2000 and December 2012 were other examples of months with solidly negative PNA and nothing to show for it besides a lot of chilly rain.Yeah, a poleward displacement of mass above 55N and 110/160W seems to be a requirement, looking at events since 1979. There are a number of ways to achieve that, but they all require a certain tropical/polar synchronization. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Still possible I could make it into December without a freeze. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 You need to change the name of the city of Vancouver in WA to something else. Talk about copying us! There already was legislation sometime ago to do just that, but I guess you didn't follow through. This Vancouver is the older of the two FWIW. 1825 or thereabouts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 This Vancouver is the older of the two FWIW. 1825 or thereabouts. Kind of like how Portland, ME is older than Portland, OR, but PDX is way bigger. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 Kind of like how Portland, ME is older than Portland, OR, but PDX is way bigger.That's a pretty good analogy. Although they were just a coin flip away from being Boston, OR. In which case it wouldn't be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 That's a pretty good analogy. Although they were just a coin flip away from being Boston, OR. In which case it wouldn't be. Yeah I am glad it didn't end up Boston... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2016 Report Share Posted November 21, 2016 I love Bill Walton. Announcing the Ducks basketball game at the Maui invitational today "Oregon fans here after enduring the 2nd rainiest October in recorded history, lets hope that rain does not turn to their tears today after this slow start by their team." 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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