November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

519 thickness down to Abbotsford, BC at least on December 2 according to 18Z GFS.

[stuffradio]

Here's another beautiful video of people playing hockey in Golden ears. I wish they would have invited me!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At face value the 18z delivers about 3-5" of snow to my location the 1st and 2nd...We'll see...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No doubt the ensembles will be very telling. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Overall the progression is exactly what I'd want to see. Pattern change occurring upstream over Eurasia, Ridges popping up becoming more prevalent, "warning" shots of cold air moving down from the northwest or north, and the Pacific shutting down west of the date line. As we move into December that's when we'll see more favorable blocking. Ensembles 500mb anomalies seems to indicate strong blocking over western AK, possibly an Omega.

 

The past few GFS runs and now the 12z CMC shows that if the ridge were just slightly further west(4-5 degrees longitude) we could see several "BC Sliders" and very low snow levels with the first storm. The next few could definitely produce snow under a marginal temp pattern, but just cold enough with short-over-water trajectory. We don't need an arctic blast necessarily and temps 20-30 degrees to turn Wintry real fast. 18z shows a bit more cold air digging back into eastern WA. Onto 00z in 3 hours 57 minutes!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we finally want to see another great January we probably don't want to see an epic December. A cool December with some "warning" shots would be a good sign IMO. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we see a fairly active December overall I feel like we'll probably see the Pacific shutdown for a time in January. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hey who is all in for sub 500 thickness at PDX?! 

 

http://www.wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_187HR.gif

[stuffradio]

If we finally want to see another great January we probably don't want to see an epic December. A cool December with some "warning" shots would be a good sign IMO. 

I don't care about January if we get a great December. We haven't had a white Christmas in a long time, and white Decembers are great but otherwise, Make January great again!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Round 2

http://www.wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_231HR.gif

Round 3

http://www.wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_287HR.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Hey who is all in for sub 500 thickness at PDX?! 

 

http://www.wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_187HR.gif

Believe or not, but I'm going with a very bullish 12-14% chance of this verifying, or thickness around 504-512.

[Gradient Keeper]

[ Model Countdown ]

Next up....

*00z GFS in 3 hours 11 minutes

00z CMC/GEM in 4 hours 11 minutes

00z ECMWF 5 hours 28 minutes

Days 1-6 I wouldn't expect to see too many changes. Days 7-10+ I would like to see the offshore ridge back a tad further to allow for more 'backdoor' cold air and possible short-over-water trajectory scenarios with BC Slider systems dropping south. I would not want to see the ridge shoved inland any further nor the Pacific jet persisting with the pattern too progressive. Before day 10 I would not expect to see stronger blocking/amplification on tonight's runs.

[jcmcgaffey]

Figured I would get this checked off the list of things needed before an arctic outbreak...a pic of various tree blossoms that started blooming this week... 

[TT-SEA]

Figured I would get this checked off the list of things needed before an arctic outbreak...a pic of various tree blossoms that started blooming this week...IMG_7570.JPGIMG_7569.jpg

 

What??

 

That makes no sense in November.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Figured I would get this checked off the list of things needed before an arctic outbreak...a pic of various tree blossoms that started blooming this week...IMG_7570.JPGIMG_7569.jpg

 

 

What??

 

That makes no sense in November.   

We have several things blooming here too. They are in for a rude awakening come December. .... Or would that be a rude death? Flowers and blossoms all cozy n stuff, then cold air KILLS YOU ALL DEAD. Yeah, very rude.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm......

http://i.imgur.com/TIox1X1.png

[TT-SEA]

We have several things blooming here too. They are in for a rude awakening come December. .... Or would that be a rude death? Flowers and blossoms all cozy n stuff, then cold air KILLS YOU ALL DEAD. Yeah, very rude.

 

 

They need to be killed off... things can't bloom in November.    We are still in the downward part of the seasonal cycle.  

[Deweydog]

Hey who is all in for sub 500 thickness at PDX?! 

 

http://www.wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_187HR.gif

 

I don't take it seriously until it's within 1,100 hours.  

[ShawniganLake]

What??

 

That makes no sense in November.

Saw some daffodils coming up when I was raking leaves last weekend.

[jcmcgaffey]

What??

 

That makes no sense in November.

I went for a run at lunch and noticed people taking pictures of the trees and then realized they were blooming. I feel like every time I see people posting blooming flowers in winter we get some sort of winter weather shortly after.

[TT-SEA]

Saw some daffodils coming up when I was raking leaves last weekend.

 

 

Well... we certainly can say that the warm regime is over!    

 

Perpetual spring and summer here now?  

[stuffradio]

The sun angles will start increasing in a couple weeks!

[FroYoBro]

Are we excited by the trough dropping in on hour 384 or what!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_52.png

 

I really hope you are going to talk like Trump for this entire winter when talking about model runs. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 2 hours 7 minutes!!!! Make your plans accordingly for this most momentous event.

[Jesse]

They need to be killed off... things can't bloom in November. We are still in the downward part of the seasonal cycle.

There are actually some sub-species of autumn blooming plants.

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z GFS in 2 hours 7 minutes!!!! Make your plans accordingly for this most momentous event.

Strapped in and ready to go... bring it!!!

 

Edit: crap I have to stay duck tapped to my chair like this for 2 freakin hours?? Damit! Premature strapping. This stuff is a ***** on the arm hairs too.

[luvssnow_spokane]

There are actually some sub-species of autumn blooming plants.

Like all the cherry blossom trees at Tims house.

[Trainwreck]

Looks like the EPO is getting ready to tank. Nuff said.

[Weather101]

Overall the progression is exactly what I'd want to see. Pattern change occurring upstream over Eurasia, Ridges popping up becoming more prevalent, "warning" shots of cold air moving down from the northwest or north, and the Pacific shutting down west of the date line. As we move into December that's when we'll see more favorable blocking. Ensembles 500mb anomalies seems to indicate strong blocking over western AK, possibly an Omega.

 

The past few GFS runs and now the 12z CMC shows that if the ridge were just slightly further west(4-5 degrees longitude) we could see several "BC Sliders" and very low snow levels with the first storm. The next few could definitely produce snow under a marginal temp pattern, but just cold enough with short-over-water trajectory. We don't need an arctic blast necessarily and temps 20-30 degrees to turn Wintry real fast. 18z shows a bit more cold air digging back into eastern WA. Onto 00z in 3 hours 57 minutes!!!!

Sometimes these patters can be better for snow then a full out dry Arctic blast.

[Front Ranger]

They need to be killed off... things can't bloom in November.    We are still in the downward part of the seasonal cycle.  

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like the EPO is getting ready to tank. Nuff said.

Yep

[SilverFallsAndrew]

44 degrees with moderate rain and coming home to 54 degrees in the house...Yep it is winter time

[MossMan]

45F and rain currently!

[TT-SEA]

44 degrees with moderate rain and coming home to 54 degrees in the house...Yep it is winter time

 

54 in the house??    

 

73 here.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

54 in the house??    

 

73 here.   

 

Yeah, I have a furnace, but I don't use it. I heat with wood. No one is home during the day, and I didn't start a fire last night because I got home late and just went to bed. It'll be up to 70 in about 45 mins. 

[MossMan]

54 in the house??

 

73 here.

68 here!

[snow_wizard]

The sun angles will start increasing in a couple weeks!

4 weeks actually.

[stuffradio]

68 here!

71 here! Real torchy. You would think it's May in my house.

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see the ensemble has continued to trend slowly colder today. The mean drops to -5 at one point on the 18z.

[snow_wizard]

Top 5 warmest Novembers at OLM: 1949, 1954, 1965, 1995, and 2008.

Amazingly every one of those winters had a big blast except 1965 which had quite a bit of snow.