Heavy Snow Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 The updated run of the 12z EURO is fantastic. We start to see the ridge retrograde at around Day 8 and morph with another ridge forming in the North Pacific. I'm highly confident now that an Arctic Blast is coming for the PNW. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112412/192/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112412/216/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112412/240/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Since 2010 we have seen a top 10 warm month in every month except December (records back to 1872) Portland downtown 1872-1939Portland airport 1940-present Jan: 2010 was 6th warmest on recordFeb: 2015 was 2nd warmestMar: 2015 was 6th warmestApr: 2016 was 3rd warmestMay: 2016 was 7th warmestJun: 2015 was warmestJul: 2015 was 2nd warmestAug: 2014 was warmestSep: 2014 was warmestOct: 2015 was warmest, 2014 was 2nd warmestNov: 2016 was 2nd warmest tentativelyDec: last top 10 warm was in 1950. We're due! Are you basing these rankings off of PDX, or downtown, or an aggregate of the two? For instance, August 1967 (average of 75.0) and September 1974 (average of 69.0) beat anything PDX has seen for those months in recent years. Same with October 1952 (average of 62 compared with 60.1 in 2014). June 2015 is the only recent month that beats anything both in the downtown period of record and PDX period of record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 For sake of comparison, here are occurrences of a top 10 cold month since 2010:Apr: 2011 was 7th coldest on recordMay: 2011 was 7th coldest on record That's it. In fact nothing else since Nov 1993 (8th coldest) and July 1993 (8th coldest). Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 There has not been a below normal day this month yet. SEA is running about +4 since last weekend. There has still been a considerable drop from earlier in the month and further cooling coming...probably below normal. I just get frustrated by people being obtuse about it. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Love the latest PNA forecast!! Love that dip!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 You're being kind of impossible here. The drop has been pretty sharp. Just trying to keep it real. Living in delusion only leads to painful awakenings when things don't work out later. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 The updated run of the 12z EURO is fantastic. We start to see the ridge retrograde at around Day 8 and morph with another ridge forming in the North Pacific. I'm highly confident now that an Arctic Blast is coming for the PNW. Must be wrong according to most on here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Just trying to keep it real. Living in delusion only leads to painful awakenings when things don't work out later. You're totally ignoring the unmistakable model trends right now. You're going to feel foolish a week from now. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Are you sure about December? Up here 2014 was the warmest ever. Were you saying there hasn't been a top 10 warm December since 1950?Dec 2014 was 44.7 which would be just below the 10th warmest (1900) at 44.9. Top 10 warmest Dec: 1917: 48.41875: 47.71882: 46.81933: 46.71950: 46.41925: 45.81939: 45.61886: 45.51929: 45.31900: 44.9 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Love the latest PNA forecast!! Love that dip!! You're seeing things dude. Nothing good coming. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Dec 2014 was 44.7 which would be just below the 10th warmest (1900) at 44.9. Top 10 warmest Dec: 1917: 48.4 1875: 47.7 1882: 46.8 1933: 46.7 1950: 46.4 1925: 45.8 1939: 45.6 1886: 45.5 1929: 45.3 1900: 44.9 Seems a little bit suspect. Looking at records since 1950...2014 was certainly a torch. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Are you basing these rankings off of PDX, or downtown, or an aggregate of the two? For instance, August 1967 (average of 75.0) and September 1974 (average of 69.0) beat anything PDX has seen for those months in recent years. Same with October 1952 (average of 62 compared with 60.1 in 2014). June 2015 is the only recent month that beats anything both in the downtown period of record and PDX period of record.Portland downtown 1872-1939Portland airport 1940-present In 1940 the airport received "official" station status for Portland, prior to that it was downtown. So for anything after 1940 I utilize airport values. For anything before 1940 I use downtown values (because airport values weren't official from 1937-1939 though there was a station there). Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Seems a little bit suspect. Looking at records since 1950...2014 was certainly a torch.Just going off the data available which would put 2014 probably in 11th place (I don't keep a tally after top 10). Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 I was just thinking, the only month that we have failed to see top 5 warmth or better in during this three year warmthstravaganza is January. #we'redue 2015 was top 5 warm at SEA. Of course, SEA is a little silly. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 You're totally ignoring the unmistakable model trends right now. You're going to feel foolish a week from now. I'm not arguing that there are no good changes coming up. Just being honest about where we have been leading up to this. It's hard for me to make too much of the last week "only" being 3-5 degrees above normal after the first half of the month was close to 10. Sure it's a big drop I guess, but we still are in the midst of this incredible torch that we have been saying is going to end any month for about a year now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Portland downtown 1872-1939Portland airport 1940-present In 1940 the airport received "official" station status for Portland, prior to that it was downtown. So for anything after 1940 I utilize airport values. For anything before 1940 I use downtown values (because airport values weren't official from 1937-1939 though there was a station there). Gotcha. I would be interested in seeing those 1937-39 values for PDX at some point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Too bad we abandoned the prevalence of warmth several months ago. A bunch of people told me that. January will have to wait for the next warm bubble. #+7in2021 Yeah, but for awhile we've seen cool or close to average Novembers, despite torching most of the rest of the year. November torching is different in a good way. OLM will not see warmest November on record. 1949 will remain king. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Gotcha. I would be interested in seeing those 1937-39 values for PDX at some point. They're over at the Utah Climate Center website. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 2015 was top 5 warm at SEA. Of course, SEA is a little silly.POR is quite a bit shorter for Seattle (1894-present) so there's no data for known warm months in Portland like Dec 1875, 1882, 1886, 1900. That would easily bump up other years into top 10 which aren't top 10 for Portland. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Mountain snow looking sexy at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 12Z ECMWF sure looks exciting in the 8-10 day period! http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls14/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls14-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-MTiCAL.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Mountain snow looking sexy at least. Very sexy. Early mountain snow is certainly a change from recent years. I am optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Must be wrong according to most on here. Give it a few more days and everybody will be on the train by the end of this Thanksgiving Weekend if models continue to show the goods. The EURO is closing in on a solution. Lots of Arctic air ready to slide on down. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112412/240/850t.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 For sake of comparison, here are occurrences of a top 10 cold month since 2010: Apr: 2011 was 7th coldest on recordMay: 2011 was 7th coldest on record That's it. In fact nothing else since Nov 1993 (8th coldest) and July 1993 (8th coldest). OLM, free of UHI, has seen a bunch of top 10 cold months in the past 10 years. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Another noteworthy record:Assuming we don't see a day with a high below 51 the rest of the month, Nov 2016 will set a new record for the warmest monthly LoMax (coldest daily high temp). The previous record was 50 in Nov 1995.Also assuming we don't see a low below 39 the rest of the month, Nov 2016 will tie the record for the warmest monthly HiMin (warmest daily low temp). The prior occurrence was in Nov 1934. 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 I think we have pretty much seen the end of it. The only comparable period is the early 1940s. Nice to know it has happened before. In a weird sort of way this ultra torch November coming after a reasonably cool late June through October (at least from a 500mb / 850mb perspective) is a good sign since November often runs opposite of the other months of the year. Yup, the 1939-42 period is the only thing I can find that is even close. Hopefully it will be another 75 years until the next such stretch. Although I fear it will be sooner than that.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 12Z ECMWF sure looks exciting in the 8-10 day period! http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls14/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls14-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-MTiCAL.pngStill looks good to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 OLM, free of UHI, has seen a bunch of top 10 cold months in the past 10 years.Yep and much shorter POR since Priest Point is not really comparable to the airport location, so your POR is basically 1948-present for Olympia or about half that of Portland. Looking at Portland the only top cold months after 1948 were Jan 1950 and Oct 1949, the other ten were prior to 1948. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Another noteworthy record: Assuming we don't see a day with a high below 51 the rest of the month, Nov 2016 will set a new record for the warmest monthly LoMax (coldest daily high temp). The previous record was 50 in Nov 1995.Also assuming we don't see a low below 39 the rest of the month, Nov 2016 will tie the record for the warmest monthly HiMin (warmest daily low temp). The prior occurrence was in Nov 1934. Even pessimistic me thinks we will probably see a high in the 40s and a low in the mid-30s at some point between now and the 30th. It's almost December for Christ's sake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 I believe that December will be a below average month. A November torch across the continent is almost always followed by a cold December across the continent. Can't say the same for the rest of the winter, though. Wouldn't be surprised to see a West Coast Ridge for the latter half of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 12Z ECMWF sure looks exciting in the 8-10 day period! http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls14/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls14-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-MTiCAL.png Blocking ridge just a little too far west and not as amplified as we'd like. Some of the top analogs did indicate this could be the case for December, for the most part. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Yep and much shorter POR since Priest Point is not really comparable to the airport location, so your POR is basically 1948-present for Olympia or about half that of Portland. Looking at Portland the only top cold months after 1948 were Jan 1950 and Oct 1949, the other ten were prior to 1948. True. But of course, anomaly-wise PDX runs warmer compared to their period of record averages than OLM does. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Even pessimistic me thinks we will probably see a high in the 40s and a low in the mid-30s at some point between now and the 30th. It's almost December for Christ's sake.Yes NWS suggests a high of 48 on Sat/Sun but the coldest low is 41 through the end of the month. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Very sexy. Early mountain snow is certainly a change from recent years. I am optimistic. Right. At the very least we can hope for a fairly normal winter compared to recent seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 I'm all about bringing weenies together.Keep it in the bedroom man. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Blocking ridge just a little too far west and not as amplified as we'd like. Some of the top analogs did indicate this could be the case for December, for the most part. As long as the block is in place we can call it good... even if the result is 50-degree rain here all winter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 As long as the block is in place we can call it good... even if the result is 50-degree rain here all winter. Happy Thanksgiving! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Yes NWS suggests a high of 48 on Sat/Sun but the coldest low is 41 through the end of the month. NWS is generally pretty conservative on lows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 True. But of course, anomaly-wise PDX runs warmer compared to their period of record averages than OLM does. Yes...I'm not saying in a scenario absent UHI Portland wouldn't have had a 1st place cold month after 1950, but there's no way to know for certain (it's a hypothetical). Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 For sake of comparison, here are occurrences of a top 10 cold month since 2010: Apr: 2011 was 7th coldest on recordMay: 2011 was 7th coldest on record That's it. In fact nothing else since Nov 1993 (8th coldest) and July 1993 (8th coldest).2011 was the year we got some sort of song made for Vancouver. Let me see if I can find it. haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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