crf450ish Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 The models are in false start mode until they're not. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 The models are in false start mode until they're not.10 day penalty, repeat 1st down. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Temp down to 39 now with heavy rain. To bad the airmass isn't just a touch cooler. 37 now! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Very strange surface pattern today. SEA radar still looks almost exactly as it did when I first checked it this morning. Rain band has bent all the way down through western OR but not up here. Sitting at .03 for the day and at least 90% of the day was dry with some sun breaks this afternoon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Very strange surface pattern today. SEA radar still looks almost exactly as it did when I first checked it this morning. Rain band has bent all the way down through western OR but not up here. Sitting at .03 for the day and at least 90% of the day was dry with some sun breaks this afternoon.And it's another insanely wet day up here! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Very strange surface pattern today. SEA radar still looks almost exactly as it did when I first checked it this morning. Rain band has bent all the way down through western OR but not up here. Sitting at .03 for the day and at least 90% of the day was dry with some sun breaks this afternoon. I have 0.40" all in the past two hours. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 That goes without saying so be nice to us! I'll do my best to telepathically push that Arctic air mass over you guys. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 10 day penalty, repeat 1st down.Half the distance to the goal. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Half the distance to the goal.Please reset the game clock to early fall. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Cold front! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 00z GFSBegins in.... 12 minutes No real changes as to what we're looking for on this run. We want strong amplification of Aleutian ridge beginning Day 6-7 with kona/anchor low for H/L Rex block day 7-9. We definitely want to see timing moved ahead too. We do not want to see the block reorganizing and timing delayed. We don't want to see the ridge shoved too close to the Coast, nor see the arctic trough dig southwest off the central BC Coast. I'm hoping we begin to see the 500mb pattern setting up around Day 5-6 and arctic air sliding south into southern BC before day 9. I would be thrilled if we saw things sped up that much. I sure hope I can keep awake for the 00z runs tonight and as well to be here with you all for them. Think SNOW!!!! Keep the dream alive! Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=471North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Cold front!A rare event these days! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Cold front!I'm surprised it didn't get pushed back another 10 days! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Tonight's model runs will be telling.... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 F*cking GFS is running. No one ever listens to me. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
χιόνι (chióni) Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 November 2016 rain total so far 6.13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 39 degree rain as we parked for the Silvertips game in Everett. First rain I've seen in the 30's in at least 6 months. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 39 degree rain as we parked for the Silvertips game in Everett. First rain I've seen in the 30's in at least 6 months.Silvertips? Booooooooo! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 39 degree rain as we parked for the Silvertips game in Everett. First rain I've seen in the 30's in at least 6 months. I am wondering now if it might snow here tonight once this band finally makes it out here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 0z GFSHR 60.... hmmm, offshore ridge and GOA ridge trying to merge? If so, that would be a new development. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 That system dropping in from the NW tomorrow afternoon is hauling a*s. I can't remember seeing a system move so fast. Here is 10 a.m. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_3.png And then 4 p.m. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_4.png And 10 p.m. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_5.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Yep, they merged. Hmmmm http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Yep, they merged. Hmmmm http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_13.pngIs that bad? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Is that bad?Nah. I was hoping it would lead to less amplitude of the now building offshore ridge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 HR 84 just moving off Asia now is what will become our Aleutian ridge http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 That system dropping in from the NW tomorrow afternoon is hauling a*s. I can't remember seeing a system move so fast. Here is 10 a.m. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_3.png And then 4 p.m. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_4.png And 10 p.m. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_5.pngDoes this mean the Arctic outbreak will be here faster??? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Does this mean the Arctic outbreak will be here faster??? It means the pattern change has arrived. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 It means the pattern change has arrived.Hopefully it demolishes that stubborn, pesky ridge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Compared to previous 3 runs the offshore ridge at HR 102 is definitely a tad less amplified and slightly suppressed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 At HR 114 ridge nearing western Aleutians a bit more amplified than previous runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Sexton Summit was 45 with rain earlier, 33 and snow now The cold front has definitely moved through. I think we have finally achieved the next cooling step we've been waiting for. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 HR 162 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112700/162/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 The anticyclonic wavebreak is going to be even stronger this run. Here we go.. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Cold air moving into Alaska 12 hours sooner this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Dumping snow up on Mt. Hood right now! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 HR 174 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112700/174/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 The anticyclonic wavebreak is going to be even stronger this run. Here we go..What does that mean Phil? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 I hope our friend up in Juneau can survive all the cold air coming his way. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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