November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Incredible blocky pattern for the NH towards the end of the Euro. Big ridge in North Pacific, and ridiculous blocks over the Arctic and western Europe.

[Gradient Keeper]

Incredible blocky pattern for the NH towards the end of the Euro. Big ridge in North Pacific, and ridiculous blocks over the Arctic and western Europe.

I've never seen anything like this. Have you? Do we have any old maps showing a pattern resembling anything close to this?

[Phil]

Incredible blocky pattern for the NH towards the end of the Euro. Big ridge in North Pacific, and ridiculous blocks over the Arctic and western Europe.

Was about to comment on that. If we can keep the strong blocking around for awhile, everything will be alright in the end.

[snow_wizard]

The updated run of the 00z EURO was not good. We get teased at best with the Arctic Blast headed for the Midwest and East Coast like in the GFS.

 

I'm very suspicious of this. Highly unlikely to verify.

 

The main block is fabulous, but the downstream stuff makes no sense.

[Front Ranger]

I've never seen anything like this. Have you? Do we have any old maps showing a pattern resembling anything close to this?

 

 

[Phil]

I'm very suspicious of this. Highly unlikely to verify.

 

The main block is fabulous, but the downstream stuff makes no sense.

What about it is suspicious? I thought you agreed that later in December would offer better opportunities.

[Gradient Keeper]

day-after-tomorrow.jpg

Ahhh, c'mon! That was such a real depiction.....

 

6z in 2 hours 14 minutes!!!!

[Heavy Snow]

I'm very suspicious of this. Highly unlikely to verify.

 

The main block is fabulous, but the downstream stuff makes no sense.

I'm hoping it doesn't verify. I don't like that L off the Canada coast headed inland. That would be an absolutely disaster.

[luvssnow_spokane]

[Gradient Keeper]

Prediction:

Models will swing back to cold to VERY cold solutions. I am not sure if that will occur with tomorrow's 12z or 00z runs, but it will before Wednesday 00z. Basing this off of models not grasping the massively anomalous Hemispheric pattern change and due to this poor upper level pattern recognition. If I'm wrong, who cares. If I'm right, well then. Write it down. Mark your calendars. Remember this. 11:17 PM.

[snow_wizard]

What about it is suspicious? I thought you agreed that later in December would offer better opportunities.

I just think the overall look of it is odd.

[Phil]

Every single state in the US (except Florida) is colder than average by hr240 on the 00z ECMWF. That'd be pure awesomeness if it verified.

 

Maybe it's our turn to experience the widespread icebox Eurasia just went trough.

[liquidsnow]

Lmfao!!! New York is going to fricken become an absolute ice-box!!

 

-80 in the East with flash freezing cold moving down to Florida.... Meanwhile we see 50 degree rain. Bank on it!

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the ECMWF does show snow for the lowlands.

[Gradient Keeper]

Every single state in the US (except Florida) is colder than average by hr240 on the 00z ECMWF. That'd be pure awesomeness if it verified.

 

Maybe it's our turn to experience the widespread icebox Eurasia just went trough.

That might be more than anyone would truly want, but sure, why not.

[Phil]

I just think the overall look of it is odd.

It makes perfect sense to me. The first NEPAC/EPO wavebreak fails to cycle and propagate poleward, hence U-MT remains higher and the waveguide slides east.

[snow_wizard]

-80 in the East with flash freezing cold moving down to Florida.... Meanwhile we see 50 degree rain. Bank on it!

It does show it cold here also.

[luvssnow_spokane]

FWIW the ECMWF does show snow for the lowlands.

Really!? C'mon that is absolutely pathetic...

[Phil]

Just for laughs..this would be epic. Plenty chilly in the PNW too.

 

Alaska, California, Georgia, and Maine all under the same frigid airmass.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/395850BA-D261-4670-A4CF-DBC6BC0DAED8_zpsktdjcnxv.png

[HighlandExperience]

[snow_wizard]

Really!? C'mon that is absolutely pathetic...

The GFS shows about 2 to 3 times that.

[Heavy Snow]

The GFS shows about 2 to 3 times that.

 

Not really based on the Kuchera Ratio (more accurate than 10:1). It looks pretty much the same on the GFS through same time period.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112800/228/snku_acc.us_nw.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Just for laughs..this would be epic. Plenty chilly in the PNW too.

 

Alaska, California, Georgia, and Maine all under the same frigid airmass.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/395850BA-D261-4670-A4CF-DBC6BC0DAED8_zpsktdjcnxv.png

That's mind blowing. Eurasia October-November 2016 version 2.0

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just for laughs..this would be epic. Plenty chilly in the PNW too.

 

Alaska, California, Georgia, and Maine all under the same frigid airmass.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/395850BA-D261-4670-A4CF-DBC6BC0DAED8_zpsktdjcnxv.png

Will I have 6inches or more of snow at my house?. IF not... I do not give a flying goats a**... Next...  AND yes I am being sarcastic and no goats were actually hurt in this statement. Nite!

[ShawniganLake]

Both the Euro and WRF have a low cutting through Vancouver island next Sunday with a fair amount of cold air on the north side. Something to watch. WRF depicts a nice swath of snow north of the border.

[Weather101]

[ShawniganLake]

[Weather101]

Heck lets just push it all back to day 10.... It is how we roll!

LOOOL man this forum has been comedy gold tonight!!!

[bainbridgekid]

Just for laughs..this would be epic. Plenty chilly in the PNW too.

 

Alaska, California, Georgia, and Maine all under the same frigid airmass.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/395850BA-D261-4670-A4CF-DBC6BC0DAED8_zpsktdjcnxv.png

Missourians are some lucky b*stards.

[Gradient Keeper]

It looks like 00z EPS favors a backdoor blast, or chance at one rather. Looks worse though than previous runs.

 

6z in 53 minutes!!!!

[westcoastexpat]

I was wondering why there wasn't a single post about the 06Z.

 

And then I saw it.

 

[westcoastexpat]

FWIW (i.e., not much), the CFS was pretty decent, except for the raging return to continent-wide torch as the New Year strolls in

[Timmy]

I was wondering why there wasn't a single post about the 06Z.

 

And then I saw it.

 

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4025/4605961954_42f3d57fb6_m.jpg

Yeah it's pretty chilly at the end of the believable range. And pretty much no blocking nearby after that. Definitely different

[Brennan]

5:30AM: For a couple days the models picked up on a major block... now it's having a hard time gaining traction at all. At face value we follow Jim's favored progression of working our way into winter.

5:38AM: Fwiw the PNA AND EPO are still forecasted to go considerably negative into the second week of December.

 

Edit: 6:18AM: Looking at the last 8 model runs for the December 7th period... It just really seems like there is no consistency in what happens with the energy west of the Aleutians around this time, and also the low pressure NEAR Hawaii. Models are kind of drifting all over the place with it. Most recent ones have it drifting pretty far north. I still say this whole thing is up in the air. So much high pressure trying to build in the North Pacific. We'll see... This is definitely a major pattern shake up. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The folks in B.C would like the 06z. 

[catnip]

The folks in B.C would like the 06z. 

 

No complaints here. Gets cooler here sooner.

 

12z will probably be completely different so......

 

[Phil]

FWIW (i.e., not much), the CFS was pretty decent, except for the raging return to continent-wide torch as the New Year strolls in

Good thing it's worthless.

[Jbolin]

WINTER CANCEL!

Just thought I'd throw that out there and stir the "pot" a bit 

[snow_wizard]

The 6z was actually fair for Seattle. 850s drop to -8 and there is some snow.

[snow_wizard]

Not really based on the Kuchera Ratio (more accurate than 10:1). It looks pretty much the same on the GFS through same time period.

 

The Weatherbell maps look better than that and they give amore detailed view. I wasn't lying.