Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 00z ECMWF Day 3 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/072/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 00z ECMWF Day 3 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/072/500h_anom.na.png Here we go friends and neighbors! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Trough lifting out of the Great Lakes bit faster and heights higher over southeast US. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Mark Nelsen posted his thoughts this evening! Nothing earth shattering. 1000' snow levels likely. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Trough lifting out of the Great Lakes bit faster and heights higher over southeast US. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.pngI have a feeling this updated run of the EURO is going to be the best one to date! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Day 4 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/096/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 00z GEPS colder than 12z. Nice trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Euro is ahead of GFS with progress of cold air south. Ridge building a bit further west. EDIT: Not faster with cold air by day 5, though. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Day 5 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/120/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Going to be a close one, seems the ability of the low to fully split off out north of Hawaii is the ultimate key. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Going to be a close one.38-35 in OT. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Already looks better to me http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_6.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Next frame is everything Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Uhhh Day 6 Block now. Ridge is holding 160 W http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/144/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Uhhh Day 6 Block now. Ridge is holding 160 W http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/144/500h_anom.na.pngHere it comes! Hang on tight everybody! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Block holds much stronger through hour 144 on the Euro. Nice improvement, but the shortwave actually digs a little far West which would give us more onshore flow. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Ridge is way more amplified than GFS, just a bit further west than ideal. Looks good overall, though. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Next frame is everything Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Next frame is everything©DJ Droppin 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Day 7 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/168/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 ©DJ Droppin Damnit! I was going to trademark that! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Day 7 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/168/500h_anom.na.pngKool Beans Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112900/ecmwf_T850_nwus_8.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Most definitely a lowland snow pattern at day 7. Also looks like the blocking ridge is trying to regroup already in the Aleutians. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Good EURO run so far. I'm pleased. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 If there's an 850 mb low it's probably a bit NW of the surface low...generally going to be rain south and east of that low center below about 1000'. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Day 8 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112900/ecmwf_T850_nwus_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Tonight's WRF showing light lowland snow. Not that it matters much at this point. Just nice to see! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 If that ridge had only held another 1-2 days.... maybe it will on future runs. Good trends on GFS/ECMWF nonetheless 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 -10C at SEA and -8C at PDX. I'll take it! 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Nice backdoor blast Gorge east! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112900/ecmwf_T850_nwus_10.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 6z in 2 hours 33 minutes !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Yeah the ridge placement just never gets right for a big blast. No sign of that happening either, but that's okay. Winter is just getting started. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Yikes http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112900/ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.png 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The trend is our friend again. Coldest GFS and EURO runs to date. Everything should continue to trend colder as we get nearer to the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The trend is our friend again. Coldest GFS and EURO runs to date. Everything should continue to trend colder as we get nearer to the event.IDK. I feel like this is a really common forecast model myth. As much as we'd like to believe it, the fact the models may appear to have trended colder does not make them more likely to continue getting colder IMO. If anything, it shows how close a pattern is to not being as cold (since previous runs showed that.) 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The trend is our friend again. Coldest GFS and EURO runs to date. Everything should continue to trend colder as we get nearer to the event.and GEFS was much improved, GEPS was a bit colder too. Yep, let's keep this going. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold front Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Fraser River and the Gorge canyons could be ripping 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 PDX around day 9-10 may be setting up for Snow, possibly significant amounts as moisture arrives and there is a deep cold pool eastern Gorge/Columbia Basin to draw colder air through the Gorge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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